Michigan State at Georgia (01/01/2009)

Away:  Michigan State [6-6 ATS]
Home:  Georgia [3-7-1 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Citrus Bowl

Recent Meetings:
01/01/89 - MCHST 27 vs. GEO 34

Team Leaders:

Michigan State:
Passing: Brian Hoyer (2236)
Rushing: Javon Ringer (1584)
Receiving: Blair White (629)

Georgia:
Passing: Matthew Stafford (3209)
Rushing: Knowshon Moreno (1339)
Receiving: AJ Green (951)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

UNDER

Dawg homer posting here... normally don't bet on them except in certain spots, and like this one here at -7.  I expect it will climb to as high as 10.5 before kickoff. 

The thing that scares me away in this one is the lack of run D against Ga Tech.  Granted, they run a gimmick triple option attack but Georgia displayed poor tackling, pursuit angles, and intensity in the 2nd half. 

The "getting up" emotionally for the game factor in this game is hard to predict.  With the exception of last year against Hawaii, recent bowl games have found us coming out flat and then having to battle it out late in the game to win (or lose, i.e. Sugar Bowl against WV).  This team may be different as it is very young and also has a few special SR starters (Massaquoi, Chandler, Southerland, Ellerbe, etc) that are the heart and soul of the team, although they don't get all the hype.  The younger guys should play hard to send them out in style and begin to position themselves on next spring's 2-deep.

Another difference this year has been consistently good offensive production, especially against overmatched teams.  Mich St should be outmanned at all skill positions when UGA has the ball.  Moreno, Moreno, then play action bomb has been the plan usually and it's worked very well.  The combo of Stafford, Moreno, AJ Green, and Massaquoi will gash them for 450+ yds easily.  All will be 1st round picks (whenever they decide to go) except MoMass who will be a steal in the 3rd or 4th. 

BOTTOM LINE: 
UGA hasn't lost to a Big Ten team since the 1950s.  As for covering the spread?  I would've expected a line of 14-17, but the loss to GT and prior blowouts by UF and Bama has dampened public and media perception.  Those teams would all beat MSU in my opinion quite handily, even GT.  It has already gone from -6.5 to -7.5.  Expect it to keep moving steadily.  UGA will score at will with the 1st group, but I expect Richt to rotate plenty of guys in order to evaluate for next season.  After all, this game doesn't mean a whole lot except for pride... and the fans, who should hold a huge attendance advantage.

UGA 45-23

These two teams are both underachievers and deserve each other.   MSU has not shown up in their two big games v. Penn St and Ohio St.   Georgia also has been a fun team to fade, as I did in their game v. Ga Tech.  I would think GA would cover here, but they have not been a team to trust this year.  They did face better overall competition than MSU this season.  GA has a better passing game which is what I think gives them the edge here.

Huge advantage at QB for GA. MSU QB is a joke. GA still has something to prove. They're young and need a boost into next year. They dominate.

First off, yes I'm a MSU homer.   I've heard the first sentence too many times to keep letting it go by.  I don't know how anyone can call MSU an underachiever when they were preseason 6-6 or 7-5 at the best.  2-3 games above where they were predicted is not underachieving.  

Yes, they got blown out by the big boys (PSU and OSU)  of the Big Ten, but that shows Dantonio is a year or two away from competing in those games. 

Ok, now that the rant is over, I do agree that Georgia is going to be tough to stop if they're motivated.  They're combination of pass and run is going to difficult to stay up with. 

That being said, Dantonio did a magnificent job last year with 4 weeks prep to get ready for Boston College.  If MSU doesn't throw 4 picks in that game, they win.  I'll make a final prediction later but early lean is Georgia -7.5

GEORGIA-7.5 

MSU does a vanishing act in big games

Bulldogs   35 to 17

classic big 10 beat down..... BULLDOGS ROLL