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Cincinnati at South Florida (10/15/2009)

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Posted: #51
Here's the thing....Its all about turnovers in this matchup.  Cincy being the better offensive team can afford maybe a -1 TO margin.  Sfla on the other hand has to be Even or +X TO to win the game.  If you look at Sfla's history this year they are dominant when they are + and not as much when they turn it over.
 
That being said I like the home team here, game conditions and atmosphere have another close one like FlaSt written all over it.
 
Also liking the under.....will be watching the weather report closely!  T-storms on the way
 
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Posted: #52
I dont know why... But I think South Florida wins this one, initially thought Cincy.  I just have this nagging feeling that South Florida come up with the win on this one.
 
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Posted: #53
The under is too easy so, I'm betting the over!!!!
$220
 
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Posted: #54
Cincinnati Bearcats
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by WiseGuy702:

 S. Florida +3
 
Thursday homedog gets it done again boys and girls.
 
 

Adding S. Florida ML (+120)

 
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Posted: #56
Whats to think about here.
 spread was 3 with 82% on Cincy drops to 2 and even 1.5 some books.
TAKE SOUTH FLORIDA!!!!!
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by WiseGuy702:

 S. Florida +3
 
Thursday homedog gets it done again boys and girls.
 
 

The thursday home dog did not get it done last week???

Missu lost to Nebraska big at end of game

 
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Posted: #58
Because this game is take your pick, im going S. Florida +3.
  • Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

    • Im also backing the overs. Theres only a 20% chance of rain.

    GL

     
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    Posted: #59
    Cincinnati Bearcats -2
     
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    Posted: #60
    Quote Originally Posted by tigerbalm13:

    Because this game is take your pick, im going S. Florida +3.
  • Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
  • Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

    • Im also backing the overs. Theres only a 20% chance of rain.

    GL



    I noticed you omitted this one, so fixed that for ya:
    • SOFLA are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Cincy -2.5 for me.  USF is a good team but their freshman QB will have other chances to shine in future years.  I don't see them getting it done here, with no short week disadvantage.

    GL all...
     
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    Posted: #61
    wheres the col,jims pk or thoughts on this game, Just cant make up my mind!! i think we go with the under at half/game both.Phancard help me out here.im just a rookie at this,maybe i just watch? Yep that sounds like a damm good idea.  GO! CINNCI!
     
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    Posted: #62
    The obvious battle is the UC Offense (ranked #3 in the nation with 42 ppg) versus the SFL Defense (ranked #5 in the nation with 9 ppg)  SFL DLine is solid with Jason Pierre-Paul stuffing the run, look what he did to FL State - and he was defensive player of the week for the Big East because of it.  But UC doesnt rely on the run, Pike runs alot of shotgun and will be moving the chains through the air.  Brian Kelly is a genious and I believe with 2 weeks to prepare they will go into Ray Jay stadium and pull off a convincing win.  Yes I am going against my previous post now.
     
    Bearcats are for real - they will show the country tonight how good that offense is.
     
    UC 27 - SFL 20.  (Taking UC -2.5)
     
    GLA!!!
     
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    Posted: #63
    Still hesitant on this game but still like USF chances in this one winning this SU.
     
    In a tight match up such as this I tend to look at who has the better defense and in this one I feel that edge goes to USF. The team with the better defense playing at home is always a plus in my book.
     
    USF ranks 5th in scoring defenses and I feel that Pike and his O-line will have their hands full with Selvie on the d-line and Nate Allen at safety.
     
    USF also ranks 10th on defense in total yards allowed per game and I know it will be tested against the fire power of Cincy's offense.
     
     USF will have to come up with big plays on defense to contain this cincy offense and I think they have the personnel and experience on defense to do it.
     
    This is a big game for Red shirt Frosh B.J. Daniels but he will have the support of the home crowd to help ease the pain. IMHO the key to USF offense is to keep the Cincy defense on the field as long as possible. A lot of 3 and outs for this USF offense will put them in the hole quickly.
     
    Anyway with all that said I'm still  on this one.....but I'll be back...
     
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    Posted: #64
    Good Write Up BigDaddy  I Think USF Has A Great Shot SU,,they Will Keep The Cats D Of The Field,,The Nice South Fla Heat & Humidy WILL WEAR THEM DOWN..Im On The East Coast Of FLA  &  Its HOT TODAY VERY HOT,,
     
    TAKE USF + ANTHING
     
    MAYBE A PARLAY WITH THE OVER
     
    USF Gets Up BIG In These Games (REMBEMBER  WEST VA)
     
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    Posted: #65
    Cinn couldn't stop the great running game of Fresno but still controlled the game.....SoFL forced 7 turnovers last week against Syr but still only won by 14 with Syr outgaining them.....Take out the turnovers and they got outplayed by Syr......
     
    I look at this line and it's about right.....Then I look at one glaring discrepancy.....Cinn has 5 straight Ws over SoFL.....That's the one trend that stands out here.....
     
    Take Cinn in a close one.....Probably an Under game but I'll lay off that....
     
     
     
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    Posted: #66
    Quote Originally Posted by danstyk:



    I noticed you omitted this one, so fixed that for ya:
    • SOFLA are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    Cincy -2.5 for me.  USF is a good team but their freshman QB will have other chances to shine in future years.  I don't see them getting it done here, with no short week disadvantage.

    GL all...

    ..

    whoa nelly......now that's an interesting stat.....

     
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    Posted: #67
    So If Cincy Has Won 5 Straight,,I Would Think That USF Is Do To Break That Trend,,I Dont Think You Can Cap A Game Like This On That Trend. BUT I Have Been Wrong Before,,GL
     
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    Posted: #68
    Brian Kelley has had 2 weeks to get his team prepared for ths game.  Jim Leavitz has had the same amount of time. 
     
    We all know how pumped up USF will be for this game.  I think that Brian Kelley has told his team to just stay focused on the game at hand.  Don't give into the hype.  With USF having a Freshman QB in this type of game, it will hurt them.  If his nerves get to him (which they will), this will create turnovers for the Bearcat defense.  If Cincy can get to 10-14 points ahead of USF, the adrenaline kick that USF had to start the game will quickly turn into tired players and negative energy.  If Cincy stays cool headed and composed through the first quarter, they will slowly but surely pull away.
     
    Cincy -2.5
     
    UC 31   USF 20
     
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    Posted: #69
    Need to make that money back from the boise game last night....  took abit of a beating.... Been a horrible start to this season for me...  never had such a bad start ot any season...  so might be good to fade me....
     
    That put aside..  early lean on USF here....  like the way their defence has played this season...  People still not giving enough respect to how good this team really is....  think USF can get more pressure on pike than any team so far and force him make quicker decisions and have to throw the ball before he really wants too...  if USF can run the ball, they could control the clock and keep the Cin O off the field... 
     
    Also chances of rain makes me lean towards the under here....  
     
     
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    Posted: #70
    SOUTH FLORIDA in this spot ladies and gents...

     
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    Posted: #71
    I was going to take USF for the game, but after looking at Cincy's previous games this year and even dating back to last year, I noticed they have almost always scored on their first drive and had the lead at halftime. Pike and that offense have scripted their first 10-15 plays and with the extra time to prepare, I really like them to come out strong. One thing about USF is that they are suspect to run plays. They gave up 200+ yards on the ground to WKU who is the worst team in college football. Look for Cincy to set USF up with some draw plays.
     
    CINCINNATI-1 1st half (4 units)
     
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    Posted: #72
    Quote Originally Posted by gobigblu4evr:

    I was going to take USF for the game, but after looking at Cincy's previous games this year and even dating back to last year, I noticed they have almost always scored on their first drive and had the lead at halftime. Pike and that offense have scripted their first 10-15 plays and with the extra time to prepare, I really like them to come out strong. One thing about USF is that they are suspect to run plays. They gave up 200+ yards on the ground to WKU who is the worst team in college football. Look for Cincy to set USF up with some draw plays.
     
    CINCINNATI-1 1st half (4 units)

     

     
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    Posted: #73
    I am a Huge Big East Fan..  I have been waiting for this game.. I am a Rutgers Season Ticket Holder and I have seen Pike Personally this year and on TV over the last few years..
     
    You guys can look at all the numbers you want analize it all you want.. The bottom line is that Pike will get it done.. He has beat SFL before, he knows how to beat them, and will beat them again.. I seen him the last few years single handely Beat Rutgers..  The guys is a winner, he's on a heisman watch, looking for a BCS Bowl, and on National TV..
     
    I was looking forward to see a Pike Grothe Match-Up (which I would of taken the home team) but unfortunitally is not going to happen now.. A Freshman QB vs Pike, I take Pike anyday..
     
    Cincy Minus the Chalk
     
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    Posted: #74
    I still have a hangover from last night's game. Boise  me big time.  Don't want another hangover from tonight's game. lol   Looks like this game is a coin flip.  Decisions, decisions, decisions. 
     
     
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    Posted: #75
     Gonna wait till Saturday for my money plays. I was going to take Boise last night then bailed. This game should be great to watch but a really nasty fight to the end. PITT & Rutgers Friday night has me feeling the same way. Is pitt that much better than Rutgers & what Rutgers team will show. Enjoy the games guys.
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