Ball State at Tulsa (01/06/2009)

I just check the weather and it looks like the rain will come about half time.

This might change somebody's mind who to take or bet the O/U

which ever you choose GLTA

 

Ball St +3 for me

Is that what's meant by reverse line movement?  I thought it was a reference to the line moving against the money.

I like Tulsa here and the over ........

Well Bigdaddy. I think maybe,just maybe the under gods give us 1 more for the season ending Tuesday game

It seems to me that there is some "reverse line movement".  When the line opened at Ball Satte -2.5, public was about 60% on Ball State.  You would expect the line to move to -3 to entice more bettors to the Tulsa side.

Not only did the line fall, but Ball State became the dog.  Usually, I would jump on Tulsa, but I've never seen a line move this much.  Something wierd is going on - I'll just take my under by halfs (see above) and sit out the side.

Please check your information, i.e.  or misinformation...Tulsa is the pub. play..  

 

 

 

 

 

Public is not favoring Ball State...where do you people come up with this shit...wagerline % are not the public. For the sake of it being easy go to the match up page and look at the %.... 63% on Tulsa...this number has come down from 65% this morning.

Weather looks pretty warm with a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms in the second half.  Also winds coming out of the South/South West between 17 and 18 MPH.  Ladd-Peebles stadium runs pretty much north to south with the north end leaning slightly towards the east.  The winds are blowing in the same direction as the field runs.  Wind could definitely be a factor as it will basically be blowing with or against opposing teams each half (assuming wind direction does not change).  Lines have definitely been moving (5.5 pts since opening) and although this movement does hold some weight when determining who will cover this game, this FACTOR alone does not decide the game.  Ball St.'s pass defense lets up 206 yds/game while Tulsa's counterpart lets up about 259.  Ball St.'s rush defense lets up about 142 yds/game while Tulsa's rush D lets up only 134.  Some simple math tells us that Tulsa's defense has let up an average of 45 yards more than Ball St.'s defense has this year.  When you consider offense both teams have strong Quarterbacks who can throw the ball well and put up points.  As both high powered offenses can both score touchdowns fairly easily, this game will come down to turnovers.  Both teams lost their last regular season games at home to opponents they (arguably) should have beaten easily: Ball St. lost to Buffalo (8-5 in the MAC) and Tulsa lost to E. Carolina (9-4 in Conf. USA).  These losses were primarily attributable to turnovers.  Ball St.'s loss occurred when Nate Davis threw only 1 interception but where his team lost fumbles on four occasions.  Tulsa's loss occurred because of David Johnson's FIVE, (thats right 5) interceptions thrown combined with another 2 lost fumbles for the team comprising a total of 7 turnovers in one game.  In a high-profile Tuesday night bowl game where weather is most assuredly going to both mentally and physically alter the game, this game will come down to one team's ability to turn the ball over less than the other team and more suscintly, quarterback poise.  Throughout the regular season, these quarterback's have both thrown pretty well with Nate Davis and David Johnson completing about 67% and 65% respectively.  However, when comparing touchdown's to interceptions, Nate Davis scores 3.1 touchdowns/interception while David Johnson scores only 2.4 touchdowns/interception.  As I said before, this game will come down to quarterback posie and turnovers.  Both teams have had about a month to work on their ball control and handling skills and should be able to hold onto the ball better to avoid fumbles.  Assuming the rains start coming down, things could get interesting.  Ball St. may have just lost their head coach but their offensive coordinator took over the position.  This may even give them an advantage since their unambitious head coach ran for the hills leaving a very skilled and capable group of players and some dedicated coaches who know they're team can win to come up with a strategic game design and then leave it up to Nate Davis to implement that design.  I'm taking Ball St. to cover, possibly money line.  O/U TBD closer to game time based on updated satellite imagery of weather patterns and movement.

P.S.  Thanks Buckeyes for nice start to the week.

 

-Stan

UNDER, is the BET.  Get it quick, check out the O/U move from 77 to 72.  The weather is the factor.  100% of rain tonight, a FLASH FLOOD warning in effect presently.  Ball State's D, is ok...not great, but when you focus on the run, not hard to defend.

 

Country's picks by team:

                                     Tulsa                              Ball St.

Wagerline.com:               44.41%                           55.59%

Logans.com                    63%                                37%

VegasInsider.com            60%                                40%

Smartcapper.com            55%                                45%

Sportsbok.com                60%                                40%

Let me know if I'm missing something guys, but I see a large play on Ball St. They have a more balanced offense, a much better pass defense and don't come close to Tulsa in turnovers. Tulsa is 96th in the country.

 

Ball St. large.

The MAC is taking this bowl game

Lets here from your rocket scientists on the term SHARP what are the origins of the word in this context and what exactly does the term refer to when and where was the term coined.

FPRONK: WR MARION for Tulsa IS OUT. Coach Malzhan said so on statewide radio show yesterday. Promise!

LOL I hear you Pronk