Can't believe week 8 is here already - it feels like week 4 "tops".
Anyways, now is the time of year where certain teams have proven or "unproven" themselves, and perhaps the linesmakers are wary of adjusting their power ratings too much.
I like to use QB Power Rating and Opposing QB Rating in my capping this time of year. I will look at the season so far and "throw out" certain games where the competition would be a lot tougher or easier.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Can't believe week 8 is here already - it feels like week 4 "tops".
Anyways, now is the time of year where certain teams have proven or "unproven" themselves, and perhaps the linesmakers are wary of adjusting their power ratings too much.
I like to use QB Power Rating and Opposing QB Rating in my capping this time of year. I will look at the season so far and "throw out" certain games where the competition would be a lot tougher or easier.
I see Houston scoring a minimum of 38 points, and maybe 50 points if they catch some breaks. SMU is going to score 14 to 24.
The key to understand Houston's year is that they have had 2 games where their passing game has been bad, otherwise they generally have QB rating of 150. Houston Opp QB Rating has improved every week and should be around 100 or betetr vs SMU.
SMU QB rating has been around 70 to 100 this year. At home on w weeknight. I will give them 110.
Houston has covered easily the last 3 games. SMU is in disarray after losing to Tulane. SMU is at home, but Houston will only have a short trip. Both offenses are QB heavy, Houston has better WRs, and the much better QB, I see my top (?) pick of the week in a weekday game.
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Houston -4.5 at SMU
I see Houston scoring a minimum of 38 points, and maybe 50 points if they catch some breaks. SMU is going to score 14 to 24.
The key to understand Houston's year is that they have had 2 games where their passing game has been bad, otherwise they generally have QB rating of 150. Houston Opp QB Rating has improved every week and should be around 100 or betetr vs SMU.
SMU QB rating has been around 70 to 100 this year. At home on w weeknight. I will give them 110.
Houston has covered easily the last 3 games. SMU is in disarray after losing to Tulane. SMU is at home, but Houston will only have a short trip. Both offenses are QB heavy, Houston has better WRs, and the much better QB, I see my top (?) pick of the week in a weekday game.
Nebraska has run up the score on 3 poor teams this year, hitting some deep balls in each game to put up impreswsive QB rating. They have also been around 120 against some better competition.
Nebraska defense has been bad against the pass - throw out the 3 bad teams and the OPP QB Ratings have ranged from 137 to 160
Both teams have run the ball effectively this year. NW may have stopped the run a little better.
This looks like a very even game to me. I like the NW coach a little more. NW is at home and is +5 so this is a very strong play for me. I would take NW -2 in this game.
NW is trying to build a good home field advnatage but I expect there to be 30,000 Nebraska fans at this game, and this could be the largest attendance for a NW in a long time, with NW 4-0 at home TY.
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NW +5 vs Nebraska.
Nebraska has run up the score on 3 poor teams this year, hitting some deep balls in each game to put up impreswsive QB rating. They have also been around 120 against some better competition.
Nebraska defense has been bad against the pass - throw out the 3 bad teams and the OPP QB Ratings have ranged from 137 to 160
Both teams have run the ball effectively this year. NW may have stopped the run a little better.
This looks like a very even game to me. I like the NW coach a little more. NW is at home and is +5 so this is a very strong play for me. I would take NW -2 in this game.
NW is trying to build a good home field advnatage but I expect there to be 30,000 Nebraska fans at this game, and this could be the largest attendance for a NW in a long time, with NW 4-0 at home TY.
SD St +6.5 at Nevada. Nevada has a real home field edge and can the run the ball on anyone. I see a high scoring game (80+ points) because I don't think Nevada can slow down SD St's offense. I'd take SD St +3.5 but I don't like them ML.
LA Tech -31 - this is not enough points. LA Tech has a hurry up offense, a QB to WR connection that is impossible to stop, and Idaho has some of the worst pass defense in the country. Idaho has a two/thrids chance of being mediocre.
TCU -1 - vs Tex Tech. Just seems like a bad matchup for Tex Tech. TCU has found a QB and they got their chip on the shoulder back. Tex Tech could be flat after the WV win. TCU got a lot of confidence in their Baylor win, but they aren't celebrating too much.
Kent St -3 vs W Mich. I think Kent St is the better team, and HF is worth at least 3 points, so this is a no brainer.
Washington +7.5 at Arizona. Arizona's HF edge is better when they are the dog. Washington fought hard vs USC and I think they take some momemtum out of the USC game. Arizona has lost 3 in a row and they have USC on deck. I like Washington ML as well.
SJ St -13.5 - UTSA is 5-1 after beating 5 bums and then getting run over by Rice. SJ St is 10 times better than Rice, and I think they win this game by 28+ points, maybe even 49-10.
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SD St +6.5 at Nevada. Nevada has a real home field edge and can the run the ball on anyone. I see a high scoring game (80+ points) because I don't think Nevada can slow down SD St's offense. I'd take SD St +3.5 but I don't like them ML.
LA Tech -31 - this is not enough points. LA Tech has a hurry up offense, a QB to WR connection that is impossible to stop, and Idaho has some of the worst pass defense in the country. Idaho has a two/thrids chance of being mediocre.
TCU -1 - vs Tex Tech. Just seems like a bad matchup for Tex Tech. TCU has found a QB and they got their chip on the shoulder back. Tex Tech could be flat after the WV win. TCU got a lot of confidence in their Baylor win, but they aren't celebrating too much.
Kent St -3 vs W Mich. I think Kent St is the better team, and HF is worth at least 3 points, so this is a no brainer.
Washington +7.5 at Arizona. Arizona's HF edge is better when they are the dog. Washington fought hard vs USC and I think they take some momemtum out of the USC game. Arizona has lost 3 in a row and they have USC on deck. I like Washington ML as well.
SJ St -13.5 - UTSA is 5-1 after beating 5 bums and then getting run over by Rice. SJ St is 10 times better than Rice, and I think they win this game by 28+ points, maybe even 49-10.
Be careful with kent... Ive bet this teAm and followed them all season... This wmu matchup is bad for them... Might look at an over if 55 or less!! Kent just cannot stop the pass, wmu will throw 50+ passes on saturday... I love kent st on the year but not sure abt this week
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Looks alot like my. Card...
Be careful with kent... Ive bet this teAm and followed them all season... This wmu matchup is bad for them... Might look at an over if 55 or less!! Kent just cannot stop the pass, wmu will throw 50+ passes on saturday... I love kent st on the year but not sure abt this week
Be careful with kent... Ive bet this teAm and followed them all season... This wmu matchup is bad for them... Might look at an over if 55 or less!! Kent just cannot stop the pass, wmu will throw 50+ passes on saturday... I love kent st on the year but not sure abt this week
Kent stymied the Buffalo passers into a 5/26 day.
WM only had two good passing days all year against two very bad teams, vs UMass and Eastern Ill. They had poor days against Toledo and Ball St.
Kent St is going to run the balll and control the clock. I think they win by 10 points.
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Quote Originally Posted by jdnmoney:
Looks alot like my. Card...
Be careful with kent... Ive bet this teAm and followed them all season... This wmu matchup is bad for them... Might look at an over if 55 or less!! Kent just cannot stop the pass, wmu will throw 50+ passes on saturday... I love kent st on the year but not sure abt this week
Kent stymied the Buffalo passers into a 5/26 day.
WM only had two good passing days all year against two very bad teams, vs UMass and Eastern Ill. They had poor days against Toledo and Ball St.
Kent St is going to run the balll and control the clock. I think they win by 10 points.
Maynard is unpredictable & being the Big Game.. it's tough to call.
I'm considering spinkling a a small bet on Cal. They have the speed on O to give 'Furd some problems.
I think Bigelow gets some more carries, and he reminds some people of Jahvid Best. Both teams should run the ball a lot. Under may be worth a look. Stanford will run it 20 times in a row, and Cal also ran it a lot vs Wash St last week.
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Quote Originally Posted by RetainLane:
Maynard is unpredictable & being the Big Game.. it's tough to call.
I'm considering spinkling a a small bet on Cal. They have the speed on O to give 'Furd some problems.
I think Bigelow gets some more carries, and he reminds some people of Jahvid Best. Both teams should run the ball a lot. Under may be worth a look. Stanford will run it 20 times in a row, and Cal also ran it a lot vs Wash St last week.
I think Bigelow gets some more carries, and he reminds some people of Jahvid Best. Both teams should run the ball a lot. Under may be worth a look. Stanford will run it 20 times in a row, and Cal also ran it a lot vs Wash St last week.
Yeah I think you are correct. O/U is the way to go. A side in this game is nothing more than a coin flip.
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
I think Bigelow gets some more carries, and he reminds some people of Jahvid Best. Both teams should run the ball a lot. Under may be worth a look. Stanford will run it 20 times in a row, and Cal also ran it a lot vs Wash St last week.
Yeah I think you are correct. O/U is the way to go. A side in this game is nothing more than a coin flip.
oklahoma st in a HUGE revenge game this week, gundy will run up the score in this one....over could be a nice play as well , depending on number
I'm against you on this game.
The line opened at 14, and moved to 13.5 already.
Even if you give OK St 6 points for home filed, how can you make OK St 7.5 points better on a neutral field. I have these teams pretty much even on a nuetral field.
OK St has had 2 games against weak teams that skew their season stats. The other 3 games they lost two (@Zona, Texas at home) and barely beat Kansas on the road.
I like Iowa St at 10.5. and I could see Iowa St winning ML again.
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Quote Originally Posted by raffchfd:
oklahoma st in a HUGE revenge game this week, gundy will run up the score in this one....over could be a nice play as well , depending on number
I'm against you on this game.
The line opened at 14, and moved to 13.5 already.
Even if you give OK St 6 points for home filed, how can you make OK St 7.5 points better on a neutral field. I have these teams pretty much even on a nuetral field.
OK St has had 2 games against weak teams that skew their season stats. The other 3 games they lost two (@Zona, Texas at home) and barely beat Kansas on the road.
I like Iowa St at 10.5. and I could see Iowa St winning ML again.
Temple has won 2 in a row after their bye (both as dogs), but now face much better competition. Rutgers is at least as good as the teams Temple lost to this year (Penn ST and Maryland).
Rutgers only has Kent St "on deck" so their full attention will be on Temple.
Temple can beat teams they can the run the ball against (UConn, USF). In Temple wins, they ran for 200+ yards. In the losses 100 and 50 yards.
Rutgers has been terrific against the run this year. Stifle the Temple run, force them to pass, sack the QB, intercept some passes, and Rutgers will win by a wide margin, even if the offense is just average.
I like Rutgers in this game up to -8. The line opened at 4.5 and moved to 4, I don't think it gets to 3, but it will probably steam to 3.5. Or it could go to 6. I think this is the worst Big East matchup for Temple this year...
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Rutgers -4.
Temple has won 2 in a row after their bye (both as dogs), but now face much better competition. Rutgers is at least as good as the teams Temple lost to this year (Penn ST and Maryland).
Rutgers only has Kent St "on deck" so their full attention will be on Temple.
Temple can beat teams they can the run the ball against (UConn, USF). In Temple wins, they ran for 200+ yards. In the losses 100 and 50 yards.
Rutgers has been terrific against the run this year. Stifle the Temple run, force them to pass, sack the QB, intercept some passes, and Rutgers will win by a wide margin, even if the offense is just average.
I like Rutgers in this game up to -8. The line opened at 4.5 and moved to 4, I don't think it gets to 3, but it will probably steam to 3.5. Or it could go to 6. I think this is the worst Big East matchup for Temple this year...
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