I have been following you for awhile and first i would like to commend you on the great work you have done handicapping.
I really like the Indiana pick, when i saw that they released it at
+8.5 in vegas i was hoping for around 10 at the offshores, but i think
i was being too optomistic. I really like this pick for two main
reasons. First, anthony morelli PSU's QB plays like absolute hell on
the road, he is a totally different guy than we have seen as of late.
Secondly, the #1 team in the nation comes to PSU the following weekend.
I really think it is going to be hard to keep everyone focused giving
that everyone on that defense will want to avenge last years loss to #1
OSU.
I think PSU will be focusing on next week's game a little early and i may even through a little on Indiana moneyline.
BOL this weekend KOAJ.
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KOAJ,
I have been following you for awhile and first i would like to commend you on the great work you have done handicapping.
I really like the Indiana pick, when i saw that they released it at
+8.5 in vegas i was hoping for around 10 at the offshores, but i think
i was being too optomistic. I really like this pick for two main
reasons. First, anthony morelli PSU's QB plays like absolute hell on
the road, he is a totally different guy than we have seen as of late.
Secondly, the #1 team in the nation comes to PSU the following weekend.
I really think it is going to be hard to keep everyone focused giving
that everyone on that defense will want to avenge last years loss to #1
OSU.
I think PSU will be focusing on next week's game a little early and i may even through a little on Indiana moneyline.
I would be careful betting on Nebraska. The team has completely quit on Callahan (38 in the first half to a team that got handled by Troy is pathetic). I don't think Nebraska wins another game the rest of the year.
Also, Nebraska's entire defense is terrible, not just the pass defense. Nebraska has given up over 400 yards on the ground in the last two weeks (230 against OK St. and 195 against Missouri).
Just some things to mull over before you put your good money on a bad team. Good luck with your final plays
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KOAJ -
I would be careful betting on Nebraska. The team has completely quit on Callahan (38 in the first half to a team that got handled by Troy is pathetic). I don't think Nebraska wins another game the rest of the year.
Also, Nebraska's entire defense is terrible, not just the pass defense. Nebraska has given up over 400 yards on the ground in the last two weeks (230 against OK St. and 195 against Missouri).
Just some things to mull over before you put your good money on a bad team. Good luck with your final plays
I just got a feeling USC covers. USC seems to always have a stretch in Mid-October where they struggle and then just turn it on. I think ND is going to get worked.
To follow up on the Auburn game but teams coming off 2+ overtime player are the following (updated for Fresno/TexAM):
Over the last 5 years teams playing in the;
Game after playing 2 or more OTs are 34-60-6 ATS (34%)
Game after playing 3 or more OTs are 13-28-1 ATS (30%)
Overall Favorites in game after 2 or more OTs are 19-33-3 (34%)
Overall Dawgs in game after 2 or more OTs are 15-27-3 (33%)
So I would look at Navy, Pitt, Northwestern, Minnesota, LSU and Kentucky all as fade plays.
I never did break down road/away issues but I'll try to do it this week and get back to everyone.
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KOAJ,
I just got a feeling USC covers. USC seems to always have a stretch in Mid-October where they struggle and then just turn it on. I think ND is going to get worked.
To follow up on the Auburn game but teams coming off 2+ overtime player are the following (updated for Fresno/TexAM):
Over the last 5 years teams playing in the;
Game after playing 2 or more OTs are 34-60-6 ATS (34%)
Game after playing 3 or more OTs are 13-28-1 ATS (30%)
Overall Favorites in game after 2 or more OTs are 19-33-3 (34%)
Overall Dawgs in game after 2 or more OTs are 15-27-3 (33%)
So I would look at Navy, Pitt, Northwestern, Minnesota, LSU and Kentucky all as fade plays.
I never did break down road/away issues but I'll try to do it this week and get back to everyone.
I just got a feeling USC covers. USC seems to always have a stretch in Mid-October where they struggle and then just turn it on. I think ND is going to get worked.
To follow up on the Auburn game but teams coming off 2+ overtime player are the following (updated for Fresno/TexAM):
Over the last 5 years teams playing in the;
Game after playing 2 or more OTs are 34-60-6 ATS (34%)
Game after playing 3 or more OTs are 13-28-1 ATS (30%)
Overall Favorites in game after 2 or more OTs are 19-33-3 (34%)
Overall Dawgs in game after 2 or more OTs are 15-27-3 (33%)
So I would look at Navy, Pitt, Northwestern, Minnesota, LSU and Kentucky all as fade plays.
I never did break down road/away issues but I'll try to do it this week and get back to everyone.
Don't forget Boise and Nevada. Understandibly, both teams looked absolutely gassed at the end of that game.
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Quote Originally Posted by SteelHop:
KOAJ,
I just got a feeling USC covers. USC seems to always have a stretch in Mid-October where they struggle and then just turn it on. I think ND is going to get worked.
To follow up on the Auburn game but teams coming off 2+ overtime player are the following (updated for Fresno/TexAM):
Over the last 5 years teams playing in the;
Game after playing 2 or more OTs are 34-60-6 ATS (34%)
Game after playing 3 or more OTs are 13-28-1 ATS (30%)
Overall Favorites in game after 2 or more OTs are 19-33-3 (34%)
Overall Dawgs in game after 2 or more OTs are 15-27-3 (33%)
So I would look at Navy, Pitt, Northwestern, Minnesota, LSU and Kentucky all as fade plays.
I never did break down road/away issues but I'll try to do it this week and get back to everyone.
Don't forget Boise and Nevada. Understandibly, both teams looked absolutely gassed at the end of that game.
KOAJ I hate to see you on ther side as me......But I gotta go with my gut and my gut says take LVILL -3 to the bank on friday nite prime time.........They are just abetter team and UCONN hasnt played the beasts of the east yet..I think UCONN lose 5 outta there next 6(they should beat DA CUSE) I have been killing the bigeast for the last 4 years so be careful KOAJ!!!!! And goodluck to you whatever you play!!!!!
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KOAJ I hate to see you on ther side as me......But I gotta go with my gut and my gut says take LVILL -3 to the bank on friday nite prime time.........They are just abetter team and UCONN hasnt played the beasts of the east yet..I think UCONN lose 5 outta there next 6(they should beat DA CUSE) I have been killing the bigeast for the last 4 years so be careful KOAJ!!!!! And goodluck to you whatever you play!!!!!
i know you from a few weeks ago and you love to lay road chalk with teams who play crap defense (WVU @ usf)...just be careful, road chalk in conference is a quick way to lose your money
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wvboy - im not on anything
i know you from a few weeks ago and you love to lay road chalk with teams who play crap defense (WVU @ usf)...just be careful, road chalk in conference is a quick way to lose your money
a perfect setup giving us the +2.5/+3 line...dont you think?
This is one of those "i gotta better chance of seeing god rather than cap correctly" types of games.
Case in point here is that seemed as if everyone loved Purdue last week b/c of the spread offense. But, Michigan's problems aren't w/ the spread. It's w/ a running QB. Which is where this either hurts or helps the illini here. For some odd reason, Zook has been going w/ Juice the whole game, thru the good and the bad, then Juice puts a drive together, then benches him, brings in McGee (who I think is the better option for this game and the rest of the season). But, I just don't get it. Why allow a QB to play the entire game, get comfortable, then bench him in the last quarter, bring in a kid who's been standing on the sidelines for 3 quarters antsy as h*ll to get in the game, plan on that kid leading you to a TD drive to win the game or tie it. We both knew it was a bad spot last week going on the road, but Zook did the same thing again. I'd have to believe he's second guessing himself (McGee worked against PSU and Wisky at home) this week. But, knowing Zook, he'll rotate them every other series, try to mix it up. But w/ this offense that Illinois runs, it's hard adjusting. Juice throws a very different ball (almost too fast), and McGee would rather throw a light one. Sounds stupid, but that is the case. The option they run is a bit easier to defend than Oregon/Appy State. All it is is a shotgun set, run one way or the other, and either keep it or pitch. McGee keeps it 3/4 of the time, and Juice pitches it 3/4 of the time. Granted, I'm definately not laying road chalk here in this spot (which is a good spot for Illinois as you have pointed out) but I can't take anything less than a FG + here either w/ Zook basically throwing out any and all rhythm this offense has at any point in the game.
I gave up my tickets, the wife's got some fiasco planned this weekend, but it should be a good game. I'm eager to see how the Michigan defense defends, and curious to wake up Sunday and see 3 or 4 newspaper articles on how Zook can't coach but he can recruit, lol. If i can get more than a FG here, i'd risk it, but 40% of that risk/analysis would be solely based on the crowd and a chance to get to a bowl game w/ a win. This game definately means more to Illinois..
GL Koaj
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
a perfect setup giving us the +2.5/+3 line...dont you think?
This is one of those "i gotta better chance of seeing god rather than cap correctly" types of games.
Case in point here is that seemed as if everyone loved Purdue last week b/c of the spread offense. But, Michigan's problems aren't w/ the spread. It's w/ a running QB. Which is where this either hurts or helps the illini here. For some odd reason, Zook has been going w/ Juice the whole game, thru the good and the bad, then Juice puts a drive together, then benches him, brings in McGee (who I think is the better option for this game and the rest of the season). But, I just don't get it. Why allow a QB to play the entire game, get comfortable, then bench him in the last quarter, bring in a kid who's been standing on the sidelines for 3 quarters antsy as h*ll to get in the game, plan on that kid leading you to a TD drive to win the game or tie it. We both knew it was a bad spot last week going on the road, but Zook did the same thing again. I'd have to believe he's second guessing himself (McGee worked against PSU and Wisky at home) this week. But, knowing Zook, he'll rotate them every other series, try to mix it up. But w/ this offense that Illinois runs, it's hard adjusting. Juice throws a very different ball (almost too fast), and McGee would rather throw a light one. Sounds stupid, but that is the case. The option they run is a bit easier to defend than Oregon/Appy State. All it is is a shotgun set, run one way or the other, and either keep it or pitch. McGee keeps it 3/4 of the time, and Juice pitches it 3/4 of the time. Granted, I'm definately not laying road chalk here in this spot (which is a good spot for Illinois as you have pointed out) but I can't take anything less than a FG + here either w/ Zook basically throwing out any and all rhythm this offense has at any point in the game.
I gave up my tickets, the wife's got some fiasco planned this weekend, but it should be a good game. I'm eager to see how the Michigan defense defends, and curious to wake up Sunday and see 3 or 4 newspaper articles on how Zook can't coach but he can recruit, lol. If i can get more than a FG here, i'd risk it, but 40% of that risk/analysis would be solely based on the crowd and a chance to get to a bowl game w/ a win. This game definately means more to Illinois..
The Big Ten has more programs on the verge of obtaining spots in postseason play than any other conference with eight teams already at the five-win mark and 10 teams still holding realistic bowl hopes.
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On a side note:
The Big Ten has more programs on the verge of obtaining spots in postseason play than any other conference with eight teams already at the five-win mark and 10 teams still holding realistic bowl hopes.
Sorry to hijack, but one more thing of importance is the night game. I can't remember the last time I - L - L played a home B-10 game at night....not sure if that's a good or bad thing...
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Sorry to hijack, but one more thing of importance is the night game. I can't remember the last time I - L - L played a home B-10 game at night....not sure if that's a good or bad thing...
nropp - my wife has something cooking this weekend also for sat night. not happy about it
zook's problem which you're learning is Xs and Os and gameday. he will bring in the best talent around but he has a tough time doing gameday prep and managing the game
re: your second point...many of those teams at the 5 win mark have beaten up on the MAC this year...those wins have to be against 1-A teams...so throw out Indiana State, Western Illinois, Notre Dame (2), Buffalo, Florida Intl, Western Michigan
nropp - my wife has something cooking this weekend also for sat night. not happy about it
zook's problem which you're learning is Xs and Os and gameday. he will bring in the best talent around but he has a tough time doing gameday prep and managing the game
re: your second point...many of those teams at the 5 win mark have beaten up on the MAC this year...those wins have to be against 1-A teams...so throw out Indiana State, Western Illinois, Notre Dame (2), Buffalo, Florida Intl, Western Michigan
nropp - my wife has something cooking this weekend also for sat night. not happy about it
zook's problem which you're learning is Xs and Os and gameday. he will bring in the best talent around but he has a tough time doing gameday prep and managing the game
re: your second point...many of those teams at the 5 win mark have beaten up on the MAC this year...those wins have to be against 1-A teams...so throw out Indiana State, Western Illinois, Notre Dame (2), Buffalo, Florida Intl, Western Michigan
yah, that's what i'm saying, they'll pad the schedules to make the conference look better, but in essence, it hurts every single one of them...just think if PSU comes away w/ a victory over Michigan and Illinois (which both were possible), they'd have #1 and #2 locked up.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
nropp - my wife has something cooking this weekend also for sat night. not happy about it
zook's problem which you're learning is Xs and Os and gameday. he will bring in the best talent around but he has a tough time doing gameday prep and managing the game
re: your second point...many of those teams at the 5 win mark have beaten up on the MAC this year...those wins have to be against 1-A teams...so throw out Indiana State, Western Illinois, Notre Dame (2), Buffalo, Florida Intl, Western Michigan
yah, that's what i'm saying, they'll pad the schedules to make the conference look better, but in essence, it hurts every single one of them...just think if PSU comes away w/ a victory over Michigan and Illinois (which both were possible), they'd have #1 and #2 locked up.
hear you all on the psu look ahead,and I am a big time PSU homer/grad/two kids there
BUT, this team is not the same as a few weeks age, the O line is vastly improved, and the D is the same as always, it is a lot of points on the road, but I think if the turnovers go equal or psu's way, they win easily
good luck to all, no matter what you do (unless you bet the ind ml of course )
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hear you all on the psu look ahead,and I am a big time PSU homer/grad/two kids there
BUT, this team is not the same as a few weeks age, the O line is vastly improved, and the D is the same as always, it is a lot of points on the road, but I think if the turnovers go equal or psu's way, they win easily
good luck to all, no matter what you do (unless you bet the ind ml of course )
nropp - what happens when psu beats ohio state next week? help or hurt the conference as a whole...hurts IMO. is buckeyes can go into happy valley and win that shows how good they really are (outside of the SEC)
ruff - ive stayed away from ncaaf ml's...not nearly as profitable as the pros. i will be on indy...would like to get 8 if i can
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nropp - what happens when psu beats ohio state next week? help or hurt the conference as a whole...hurts IMO. is buckeyes can go into happy valley and win that shows how good they really are (outside of the SEC)
ruff - ive stayed away from ncaaf ml's...not nearly as profitable as the pros. i will be on indy...would like to get 8 if i can
i know you from a few weeks ago and you love to lay road chalk with teams who play crap defense (WVU @ usf)...just be careful, road chalk in conference is a quick way to lose your money
I know..I know..but WVU is my team!! I only lost about a hundo on that game.........but I hear you on a team that does not play that good of defense...(WVU played great defense in that South FL game just no offense)..Gotta stick with my gut KOAJ!! You and about 5 others on this site are the only threads I really play attention 2..I always respect your thoughts and opinions!! But lets gooooooo cardinals this week..gluck buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
wvboy - im not on anything
i know you from a few weeks ago and you love to lay road chalk with teams who play crap defense (WVU @ usf)...just be careful, road chalk in conference is a quick way to lose your money
I know..I know..but WVU is my team!! I only lost about a hundo on that game.........but I hear you on a team that does not play that good of defense...(WVU played great defense in that South FL game just no offense)..Gotta stick with my gut KOAJ!! You and about 5 others on this site are the only threads I really play attention 2..I always respect your thoughts and opinions!! But lets gooooooo cardinals this week..gluck buddy
that'd be a big blow to the conference koaj, just not sure PSU beats OSU though.
if i could get penn state + 7 i would be very happy.
wvboy - i may not play Uconn but this bet is no different than wvu laying 6 to usf a few weeks back. bad defenses should never lay points on the road...and if they do, you should be against them or lay off the game
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Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
that'd be a big blow to the conference koaj, just not sure PSU beats OSU though.
if i could get penn state + 7 i would be very happy.
wvboy - i may not play Uconn but this bet is no different than wvu laying 6 to usf a few weeks back. bad defenses should never lay points on the road...and if they do, you should be against them or lay off the game
I respect ur opinion KOAJ but already pounded it a -3..if it goes up to 5 1/2 I might hedged my bet hoping it to land on 4 or 5 but until then..LETS GOOOOO LVILL!!I think that they finally got their mojo back!
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I respect ur opinion KOAJ but already pounded it a -3..if it goes up to 5 1/2 I might hedged my bet hoping it to land on 4 or 5 but until then..LETS GOOOOO LVILL!!I think that they finally got their mojo back!
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