Yes, LSU is an elite team and Kentucky is having a down year. Everybody knows that and it's the primary reason why the spread is 29 points. You need to dig deeper, though, and realize that LSU just passed two highly-significant road tests, both in front of enormous viewing audiences in the preeminent TV slot consecutive weeks. They have a rather important clash with Florida next weekend to which many of the players will already be looking forward. Think anyone is concerned about Kentucky? Plus, it's a noon kickoff and the normally raucous Death Valley crowd won't have its nighttime energy. Check Les' Miles stats as a double-digit favorite in SEC play. Not pretty. Kentucky's defense is way, way better than it showed last week, and suffice it to say that LSU does not have nearly the athletes on offense that Florida was able to deploy.
MysticRich- Again, LSU's offense is not Florida. Charlie Weis is not calling the plays and LSU does not have anyone with the game-breaking ability of Demps or Rainey. Lee is a game manager whose job is to oversee the proper execution of the offense and protect the football. He's not there to go 30/43 with 350 yards and 4 touchdowns. Will Kentucky break double-digits? Tough to say. Keep in mind that UK does, in fact, have SEC athletes and a tremendous amount of experience on defense.
Two of them, as a matter of fact. Saw them against Washington and Wyoming. Keep in mind that they've been playing without All-American cornerback Alfonzo Dennard for most of the year. When healthy, he takes the opponent's best receiver out of the equation. This will be a major factor on Saturday against quality Wisconsin wideout Nick Toon. Keep in mind as well that Jared Crick has been banged up, but will be ready to go on this weekend.
Look, I don't like Nebraska all that much and have bet against them twice this season (Fresno State and Wyoming). But this spread is clearly where it is because Wisconsin has become a trendy national championship pick and every bettor's favorite ATS darling. Let's see how Russell Wilson does against a real defense (i.e. not OSU, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, or UNLV) before we hand him the Heisman.
No play on UCLA after all...Their secondary is beyond banged up right now with 4 players' status for Saturday's game currenly in doubt. There's just not enough depth there right now for me to back the Bruins against the balance of Stanford's offense. Neuheisel indicated that he plans on throwing the ball with more frequency than usual, and Shayne Skov was Stanford's team leader on defense, so the over could be a good play.
I'm passing on the game entirely, though.
Washington +8 @ Utah (2 units)
Not a lot to say here other than that Utah's unproven secondary and defensive line should allow a much-improved Washington offense to put up some points. The Huskies have found a nice balance with all-conference running back Chris Polk and new QB Keith Price. Wideout Jermaine Kearse has emerged as a legitimate number one threat on the perimeter and the defense made some enormously important plays last week against Cal, including a game-winning goalline stand. Utah has yet to find itself offensively, struggling against Montana State and USC. Against BYU, the defense forced 7 turnovers and was the main reason the Utes put up 54 points in Provo. Only concern here for me is that Washington is at the end of a difficult three-game stretch (@ Nebraska, Cal) while Utah is coming off of an early bye week. UW has its bye next week, so I think we'll see another good effort from Sarkesian's improving bunch and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see UW win outright.
Updated Leans
BYU -7.5, Alabama -3.5, Hawaii +4.5, Boise -15 1H
Still need to explore Kent State, Marshall, and San Jose State...
I can certainly see the rationale behind Utah. Team coming off of a bye against an opponent playing its third straight "up" game. But I get the sense from watching over the past few weeks that this Washington squad is really on the rise on both sides of the ball. Utah's offense just isn't consistent enough to be laying 8 points to a quality football team. Just my opinion.
South Florida @ Pittsburgh +3 (1 unit)
This line (move) is such an overreaction to USF's success against a cupcake early schedule. Let's not forget that Notre Dame busted the Bulls' asses up and down the field opening weekend in South Bend (outgained them 500-250) but shot itself in the foot a few too many times. Since then, USF has posted some impressive offensive numbers against the likes of Ball State, UTEP, and Florida A & M, the last of which is a below-average FCS school. After two seasons characterized by erratic play and poor decision-making, B.J. Daniels is being discussed in some circles as a darkhorse Heisman candidate. For beating Ball State, UTEP, and FAMU? Please.
Pitt is a flawed team and has been slow in picking up Graham's offense, but the love for USF here is mind-blowing. The Bulls have been one of my favorite underdog bets over the last few seasons as they rarely get blown out and play up to their competition. But any value on this team has evaporated thanks to consecutive offensive explosions against abhorrent defenses. The Panthers know they've let two games get away and, according to Sunsieri and others, are determined to not let it happen again. I didn't intend on betting this game but the near-unanimous love for USF has given me cause to look into Pitt tonight and I like what I've found.
I can certainly see the rationale behind Utah. Team coming off of a bye against an opponent playing its third straight "up" game. But I get the sense from watching over the past few weeks that this Washington squad is really on the rise on both sides of the ball. Utah's offense just isn't consistent enough to be laying 8 points to a quality football team. Just my opinion.
South Florida @ Pittsburgh +3 (1 unit) 
Good, albeit small, start to the weekend. Hopefully this game leads people to believe USF is a bad football team and we see some more favorable lines on the Bulls going forward.
It took a little time, but Pitt is starting to grasp Todd Graham's high-octane offense and should only continue to improve as the season progresses. I also love that the new defensive coordinator is sending a wide range of blitzes to mask the team's biggest deficiency, its secondary. Also worth noting that Pitt rolled up all of those rushing yards without arguably the best offensive lineman in the Big East, Lucas Nix, who was hurt on the first series of the game.
Probably not going to bet BYU tomorrow unless it drops under 7. Will try and find an opportunity to bet the Cougs via live bet as there remains a decent chance that the offense has another sluggish start and a better line emerges.
Duke +4 (-120) @ Florida International (2 units)
Combo of a spot play and schematic mismatch. Duke is brimming with confidence after manhandling Tulane last weekend one week after upsetting Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The main catalyst of their success is a vastly improved defense that has not given up big plays. Offensively, Duke can score with anyone, largely due to the ingenuity of Head Coach and renowned offensive mind David Cutcliffe. His short passing game perfectly suits QB Sean Renfree and the Devils' pair of All-ACC recievers - Donovan Varner and Connor Vernon. They also boast a reliable tight end in Cooper Heflet.
FIU's greatest strength, in addition to the electrifying T.Y. Hilton, is its pash rush. The Panthers are 10th in the country in sacks. However, Duke's short and quick passing game will be frustrating for FIU, which will be without its leader in the secondary, Chuck Grace. Last weekend, in an upset home loss to LA-Lafayette, Grace left the game with an injury and the FIU secondary never recovered. Also, Hilton is nowhere near 100% health, nor is QB Wesley Carroll, who left the ULL game with an injury and was replaced by a RS Freshman.
Bottom line is I think Duke has found itself here in the early-going and many of its players are talking about how enormous it would be to go into the bye week with a 3-2 record. This is the first time since late October of 2010 that FIU will have to respond to a loss and I do not think they have the health or personnel to contain a motivated Duke squad led by a quietly prolific offense and emerging defense.
Final Card
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -6.5 (3 units)
Duke +4 (-120) @ Florida International (2 units)
Northwestern +7.5 @
Still contemplating adding more to VA Tech as I think they're in one of the better spots of the year to this point. Shitty lines on Washington and Northwestern. I still have a bad feeling Persa isn't actually going to play after the line jumped all the way up to 10. Just have to ride it out I guess.
Time to go conquer the LSAT's!
GL to you guys 
Final Card
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -6.5 (3 units)
Duke +4 (-120) @ Florida International (2 units)
Northwestern +7.5 @
Like the line movement on VA Tech but it's ultimately going to keep me from adding another unit or two. Feels good to FINALLY get a backdoor cover. Only took until Week 5...
I'm certainly glad as well. Their offense is downright disgusting and the defense seems to be wearing down already from always being on the field.
Kill seems like the right guy to turn things around, though.
Small prop play on a game I absolutely love...
David Wilson Over 112.5 yards rushing (1.5 units)
Wanted to add more to my VT -6.5 from early in the week but the line has moved too far. I think Wilson will have a big night against the Clemson rush defense and should get at least 25 carries.
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