*Week 13 Discussion(77-42-3)*

Northern Illinois is my lean. Also the Under.

 

Ill have a writeup later

I dont know about the Duke-VT game. I just think on one hand 17 is too much to give but then you just had Duke torched my Clemson. I dotn know if Duke will be able to put up the points against VT's Defense.  I am looking at Duke went to GATECH and lost 27-0 where VT beat GATECH at home 20-17.

 

Plus I look at VT being 4-0 at home while DUke is 1-3 on the road and not putting up more then 7 in those 3 loses (they did put up 30 at Wake)

 

I dont like either side of this game really.

 

Best of luck this week. look forward to seeing other final plays for you.

Tonights play:

 

Northern Illinois-24

Kent St.-17

With ya on the Under.  It's going to be cold!!  Line jumped to 51 now, tho! 

 

GL tonight buddy!

bibendi, i bet you can't wait for Four Christmas to come out huh?

on the other side , GL anyway Bibendi.. Kent St +3.5

btw, my wolfpack this week. They smell blood for at least the share of the WAC and want to take this game badly. Running back and QB tandoms is sick! I am attending the game and it will be rockin at Mackey field.

Don't worry longhorn, not only COLD but SNOW tooooo! That makes me sold on the UNDER! Kent St. is too one dimensional and that's what the doctor ordered for N. Ill., finally!

 

N. Ill.-17

Kent St.- 7

having Reese over for the Holidays would make it a whole lot merrier

You BETTER hold that first place from here on out BiBend....hope you didnt make it to that debocle of a game last night in Buffalo, tis better to stay home and order a pizza in the warmth than see that mess of a game

 

BOL this week, will toss up my leans soon for you to dismantle

Let's hope so Weasie

 

Ok write up time....

Ok so coming into this game Kent St is basically 2-7(I'm discounting their win against Delaware St.)  They have won 1 home game this year against Temple and seem to be playing much better than they were early in the year. Northern Illinois enters at 5-5, suffering multiple defeats in close games on the road before being blown out by Ball St. They showed a lot of character in their last game vs. CMU and almost finished off an incredible comeback before losing late.

 

So what does Kent St try to do at home? They started off the year with a 21-0 defeat vs. Boston College. The offense could never get anything going and Kent St. had 3 turnovers vs. Boston College's 0 in a pretty lame game. Their defense was able to hold Boston to 106 in the air but got thrashed on the ground to the tune of 230 yards. Their next home game I personally watched against Akron. They were winning 21-10 at halftime and seemed to have a good grasp on the game. Then they came out after halftime and laid an egg in the 2nd half. They need a field goal with time expiring just to send the game to overtime and then never moved the ball in overtime and lost by a field goal. A common theme for Kent St. is gaining a bunch of yardage but not turning it into points on the scoreboard. If they can hang on to the ball, they are a tough squad to beat. Their next game was an inexcusable loss to Ohio. SSDD. They turned it over 3 times with 400 yards of offense and only scored 19 points in a 26-19 loss. They got thrashed on the ground again as they allowed a 100 yard rusher and over 200 yards. This caused them to lose the time of possession battle 37 to 23 minutes. It makes it very difficult to win a game when you dont have the ball. Something crazy happened the next week, albeit on the road, they didnt have a single turnover and put up 54 points! Magic it seems. The same amount of yardage, but 54 vs 19 points. So they seemed to be turning the corner until they had 3 turnovers against temple and played in one of the sloppiest games I've watched. They had 561 yards of offense and should have scored 60 points but they turn the ball over too much. This game they were able to effectively run the ball and had that same T.O.P. stat in their favor. These offensive numbers are also inflated due to playing horrible defenses. So for me it comes down to how well Northern Illinois creates turnovers, if their defense actually has a pulse, whether or not they have the running game to dominate the T.O.P. and how much they turn the ball over.

 

So onto Northern Illinois to try to answer those questions. They started off the year losing @ Minnesota. Nothing to be ashamed of at all. They were actually winning this game with :30 seconds left and allowed a late touchdown. Two keys that jump out at me are Northern Illinois tied the turnover battle 1-1 and they only had 70 yards rushing. Time of possession was also split 50/50. So not much separated these teams. Minnesota has a much better defense than Kent St. though. Next matchup had them head to Western Michigan. While losing the game by a field goal they once again tied the turnover battle 2-2. They held onto the ball longer and amassed 142 yards on the ground while giving up almost 200. Pretty scary stat considering Kent St. should do pretty well if they can run the ball. I'm going to skip Eastern Michigan b/c they suck even though Northern Illinois did shut them out. So they then travelled to Tennessee. Classic Vols sleeper at halftime, 3-3 They did only turn the ball over one time however once again won the T.O.P battle, while only allowing 70 yards on the ground. They probably should have won this game, but couldnt capitalize on their chances. Most recently they played Ball St on the road. The final score is deceiving. The Defense was playing pretty well until they went down 14-0 and basically gave up. They did not force a turnover and committed 2. They lost every battle in this game, but what I take out of it was the way they played early on in the game. The defense is pretty quick. So then last week they played CMU at home. They could not run the ball and lost the turnover battle again.

 

So this game is another very tough call. It seems both teams are actually pretty similar. The big difference is the strength of the teams N. Ill. has played in comparison. Kent. St. has had these horrible performances against bad competition. All the games I had to choose from for N. Ill. were quality teams. So the question becomes, how quality is Kent St. If they dont turn the ball over, I'd say good. But is that likely? It is going to be cold and snowy. Which normally equals more turnovers because it is harder to hang on to and throw the ball. I look for Kent St. to put up some yardage and not score very much again. Northern Illinois showed a lot of heart coming back last week and I think they come out pissed off again. The difference in point differential between these 2 teams is 11 with N. Ill. being +7 and Kent -4. They are obviously the better team and I think they create the turnovers tonight. I would tread lightly on this one though, Under will be my biggest play

 

Prediction:

Northern Illinois-24*

Kent St-17

Nice write up Bib

 

A heavy band of snow just moved through and lookin like the weather extends longer than originally expected.  Gotta believe this fairs well for the Under.  No ILL has to be hungry for a bowl game even if it is a small one.