Week 12

6-3 last week
2-1 team totals, 1-2 game totals, 3-0 sides

63-36-4 total

Total season breakdown:
9-1 team totals
8-4 game totals
46-31 sides

Tried something a little different last week by intentionally choosing more totals. It's just to get a feel for how they're different from sides. I could probably choose the totals plays and then pretend to put money on them, but what's the fun in that? Besides, losing money is a better teacher.

Onto the stretch run!

Penn State -3
@ Michigan State

I made a mistake betting on Mich St last week but they covered for me anyway. They can't get their secondary on the same page. Daryll Clark will abuse the MST pass def.

Penn St should handle their RB's and put the stress on the frosh QB. Even at home, with the revenge angle, I don't see Mich St staying close in the 4th quarter.

Air Force
@ BYU -7 -120

BYU's defense usually handles the AF offense. On offense, BYU can usually out-physical AF and name the score.

ULM -2
@ ULL

ULM is the better team. They plan to bring their defense this year after giving up over 500 rushing yards last year.

damn buddy nice year so far

liking Penn St with solid edge on defense, also lean BYU, good point about BYU handling the option pretty well, think I missed the boat on that to get at TD would have sounded good

BOL this week LJ

I think you have three winners... Somebody tell me why ULM is lite? I know they are on the road; but I think they are still a TD better than ULL.... Is there special situation or injury I am not aware of ????

Nice Card

nostra; I think that's the first opening number you missed in 2 years. Now the rest of us know it happens to everyone. You know no play is perfect. If BYU doesn't do their job, you may have missed a sinking ship.

Atlfader; 3 winners? I like the way you think!

Good question about ULM because I didn't see anything that kept me off them yesterday. It might be due to their poor game vs WKU. If that's the case, I'll take the discount.


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When I went thru the season breakdown , I forgot the $15 ML parlay I made. So...add an 0-1 parlay to the record.

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you are the man syracuse lj...

pags Thanks, man...

I agree with Penn and ULL but I like Air Force and am getting +10

Smellyhawk;

I noticed on Monday night that the AF defense is 11th in yards per play allowed.

I'm not going to buy off the play...and I'm not much for messing around w/ middles...but I can definitely see AF being a good bet.

Just Fantastic Brother

Love when Good People Win money on Sports wagering ....

May you have your Best WEEK YET

THE ULM play is a MUST ADD For me ...Louisiana is really soft ON D... (gave up 507 to MD Tn St last week)   Frank Goodin might run for 220+ himself

 

I like your picks and BYU has been a consistent play for you this year.  I did not get them at -7, have them at -10 and still feel good about the play.  really like ULM as well.  Keep your picks coming..

Are you posting O/U this week?

Hey doubleUp; Thanks for popping in and bringing some color to my thread! Kidding, of course, I like your style. Also, the past couple weeks I've lurk in your thread Sunday morning when you release your lines...you're close enough to the opening line that I can get a good short list of plays together using your lines. I didn't realize how close you were until most of the season had gone by...at least I'll know where to go next year right in week 1. So thanks for being the Chief Resident Covers Linesguesser.

I was going to mention that in your thread at some point...but...you know...it's damn near impossible to get me to leave the comfort of my thread. I gotta get out more!




BigdaddySHY; Cool, glad you like a couple of the same plays.

I just looked at totals and there's not many that stood out:

I keep looking at the MD @ Fla St OVER 58. Maybe if Darel Scott returns. He's probable but coaches haven't made a decision yet. I think with the new QB starting, and Scott returning, the offense gets a little stronger.

Maybe Uconn @ ND over 56 but that's a little more than I wanted to see...

Awesome year bud--keep it up like the BYU

Nice work last week.  You're probably right about AFA, but they've been my only consistent performer all year.  They don't give up points.  And their offense has improved the past couple of weeks. 

good luck.

I kind of like AF OVER 10 now.....So let's have an 8-10 point win!!

Good Luck.
I was leaning MSU last week and since  you were on it I took it. They did look terrible and now am leaning PSU. I will be taking PSU this week with ya.

onenitestand;

paintguy; Cool. One more checkmark for the BYU column...

Skipster; ...and one more Air Force. I watched them vs Utah and both defense were just beating the hell out of the other team. I remember thinking after the game that I should bet AF more often but they never made the final list of plays in a week. I do see AF as a solid play, and will be nervous all afternoon watching the ESPN crawl for the score. (If a game I bet on isn't on TV, I don't bother trying to find it online...the final score is all I need until the next morning when I look into the game deeper...)

RedRockets; I agree...but not completely. Gimme a 50 point blowout. I don't need anymore close covers this time of year.

Get_the_money; We dodged a bullet w/ MSU last week. A couple years ago, there would have been a couple extra holes in my wall during the game.

Purdue backers are used to being screwed...happened to me once last year. Some good came out of it...bettors on Purdue got a lesson to...well...never bet Purdue.

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Still not finding any totals I like...ND Uconn OVER looks good but ND fumbles and commits stupid penalties that hold theie offense back. KST and Nebraska UNDER looks good but I find that the more I look into it, the better KST +16' is...so I'm still mulling that one over...(and I would buy onto +17 if I take the side.)

"ND fumbles and commits stupid penalties that hold theie offense back."

"their"

HAVE THE BYU FOR 1H...

luckyly; (Hey...good call on the NCST/Clemson over last week...good thing I didn't play it as I leaned opposite you.)

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Adding a couple more plays:


Connecticut @ Notre Dame
OVER 57

Uconn should be able to get big plays rushing the ball. ND should be able to run their passing offense successfully. The strength of the offenses should exploit the weakness of the others' D.

Maryland team total OVER 20'
@ Florida State

You have to think MD gets big plays rushing if Darel Scott comes back. It sounds like Fridge is going to make him a game time decision. The quotes from the MD players are upbeat concerning Scott so all signs point to him starting this game. The new QB, Jamarr Robinson is a dual threat guy. He should be able to make some plays vs this defense, but I don't expect the pressure to fall on him to win the game...

I will also consider a bet on MD as game day gets closer. They should score enough to keep it close.

#1 When has clark done ANYTHING on the road EVER; HE STINKS I mean he is freakin awful; the only reason Penn State ever wins is defense the only thing he has abused is watching him play thats abusive he cant throw it in the ocean.

 

#2 the line is 7; AF is a pretty good team but they can name the score; they arent FIU and Byu has shown they can lose at home.

3. I hope anytime that gives up 500 yards rushing improves but not really confident when they are playing on the road.

Stick with home teams especially at the end of the year unless the team playing it has something to play for and none of them do.

GL

Are you really trying to tell a guy how to cap when he has a record of 63-36? Get real man.

BOL