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Way too early degen corona virus plays

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Posted: #1

Since everything is shut down and basketball does not look like its not coming back anytime soon and ditto for hockey. I don't bet baseball and don't want to waste my roll on Argentina third tier soccer, some of the Pa books decided to throw a bone and put out some CFB lines. So far I've seen lines at Rivers/Sugarhouse, Parx, Draftkings, and Foxbet. Foxbet's lines are a little different but here are some of my early plays.

Ohio State @ Oregon(+6.5) 1u(-110)

USC ML(+108) @ Utah 1u

Clemson @ Notre Dame(+7.5), ML(245) 2u on spread(-110), 1u on ML

 

Some leans I seen and might play...

Ok. State(+8.5) @ Oklahoma

Alabama(-1) @ LSU

BYU(+7) @ Utah

Florida(+2.5) vs Georgia

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Posted: #2

I like Ohio State at -6.5

 
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Posted: #3

UNIMAN, I know tOSU has lots of talent but I think the Ducks are going to give them a challenge early in the year. I don't think any of the teams that made the playoffs this year are going to be there in 2021.

 
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Posted: #4

Oregon Ducks; Four new offensive linemen, new QB, new OC. (second game of the season)

History; Ducks are 0-9 playing Ohio State

 

Ohio State; returning Heisman candidate QB, three returning lineman in Munford, Myers, and Davis. Last year 4-1 ATS on the road. Lone ATS road loss was -52 at Rutgers. 

 

Yes the Ducks return a lot on defense, but defense does not beat Ohio St.

Ohio St will be weaker at RB and defense I believe. Not enough to keep it within 7 points, IMO

Just my opinion, been wrong before. I like the Buckeye's here at anything under 7.

GL

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #5

Forgot to mention new CO-DC for Ohio St. Part of the reason I believe defense to be weaker.

 
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Posted: #6

If you like tOSU(-6.5) you'll love them (-4.5) @ FoxBet. an_cheers

Got some more games I'm going to load up on.

 

 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Oregon Ducks; Four new offensive linemen, new QB, new OC. (second game of the season) History; Ducks are 0-9 playing Ohio State   Ohio State; returning Heisman candidate QB, three returning lineman in Munford, Myers, and Davis. Last year 4-1 ATS on the road. Lone ATS road loss was -52 at Rutgers.    Yes the Ducks return a lot on defense, but defense does not beat Ohio St. Ohio St will be weaker at RB and defense I believe. Not enough to keep it within 7 points, IMO Just my opinion, been wrong before. I like the Buckeye's here at anything under 7. GL

 

Good analysis...one of my targeted games...Oregon will be a good team by mid October, but out of the game against OSU even at home, not so much for the rationale you cited...

 
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Posted: #8

LonghornHoosier, How do you think Texas will look in 2020. I think they can go pretty far this year if not the playoffs they should be in a NY6 game.

 
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Posted: #9

Looks like FanDuel entered on the action yesterday and have a lot lines up no ML though, here's what I played. 

Michigan ML(-105) @ Washington 

Penn. St. @ Virginia Tech(+9.5)

Memphis @ SMU(+6)

USC @ Stanford(+11)an_timeout Mostly everybody else has USC(-3.5)

Utah @ UCLA(+7.5)

Going to keep looking out for matchups I had listed after the season ended while looking at future schedules and see if they have any on these books.

 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by OddShaad:

LonghornHoosier, How do you think Texas will look in 2020. I think they can go pretty far this year if not the playoffs they should be in a NY6 game.

 

Texas has a revamped coaching staff, with the exception of Herman and DE Coach Oscar Giles.   I will play wait and see, assuming we commence the season as planned in early September, to see how they come out of the gate.  Texas always gets the Kool Aid backers, just to disappoint (see Maryland 2017 and 2018), which is inexplicable with the talented recruits.  That's on Herman...Hopefully, Herman has matured a bit as a coach.   According to Del Conte our AD, this will be Herman's only coaching reboot.   From my perspective, Herman and his teams have been very inconsistent.  Thus, from a capping perspective, hard to predict, ATS.   Again, my advice, wait until October until you decide if you want to back Texas.  That will be the prudent thing to do.    Sure, you may miss out on some value.  Sam Ehlinger, is a good QB, with outstanding leadership skills, and Texas may be in the mix in November, or they could be 7-5...

 
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Posted: #11

Took OSU -6 -105 (2.5u) at Oregon yesterday morning.  peace_5

Anyone else considering the BOL 20% balance boost?  ..... as long as I think the fall 2020 CFB happens as scheduled, then I'll probably sign-up.  Think I'm in the wrong thread for this subject, pretty sure I saw the likelihood of a CFB season discussed elsewhere.  Thanks in advance for feedback and opinions on this.

Stay safe everyone!

TD

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Took OSU -6 -105 (2.5u) at Oregon yesterday morning.   Anyone else considering the BOL 20% balance boost?  ..... as long as I think the fall 2020 CFB happens as scheduled, then I'll probably sign-up.  Think I'm in the wrong thread for this subject, pretty sure I saw the likelihood of a CFB season discussed elsewhere.  Thanks in advance for feedback and opinions on this. Stay safe everyone! TD

Have you already deposited there because, they have a 50% welcome bonus there also. If not than yeah I'd probably take the 20% balance boost. Here is were the CFB likely hood is two below this one and thanks LH I'm going to follow your advice was going to bet the LSU game but I'll wait till RRR which is on 10-10 and I believe I can get a a better number than what is being offered now. 

 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Took OSU -6 -105 (2.5u) at Oregon yesterday morning.   Anyone else considering the BOL 20% balance boost?  ..... as long as I think the fall 2020 CFB happens as scheduled, then I'll probably sign-up.  Think I'm in the wrong thread for this subject, pretty sure I saw the likelihood of a CFB season discussed elsewhere.  Thanks in advance for feedback and opinions on this. Stay safe everyone! TD

Sounds like a great deal, but no offshore account here. Waiting for Michigan to get mobile betting put together. Hopefully by fall.

TD, keep that family safe! Amazing how fast our lives can change! One hell of a "bump in the road" for all of us!!

 

 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Took OSU -6 -105 (2.5u) at Oregon yesterday morning.   Anyone else considering the BOL 20% balance boost?  ..... as long as I think the fall 2020 CFB happens as scheduled, then I'll probably sign-up.  Think I'm in the wrong thread for this subject, pretty sure I saw the likelihood of a CFB season discussed elsewhere.  Thanks in advance for feedback and opinions on this. Stay safe everyone! TD
TD, if you don't mind mind sharing, I'd love to hear what else you played?

peace_5

 
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Posted: #15

Oregon +7.5 bought the point

 
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Posted: #16

Might not be a college football season this year. No one thought March Madness would have been cancelled!

 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by bullshark:

Might not be a college football season this year. No one thought March Madness would have been cancelled!

Why cause Kirk Herbstriet said so? Eventually we are going to have to get back to somewhat normalcy of how we were living before. Will everything be like it used to be, NO, but America along with the rest of the world is going to have to get back in the saddle at some point. The biggest issue I see is that these sports leagues and amateurs is being sued or being held negligible if someone or a an amount of people get sick at one of their events. If they could play a baseball season in 1918 with a flu pandemic and a World War going on I'm sure these leagues can find a way to resume or start their seasons in these modern times. 

 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by OddShaad:

Quote Originally Posted by bullshark: Might not be a college football season this year. No one thought March Madness would have been cancelled! Why cause Kirk Herbstriet said so? Eventually we are going to have to get back to somewhat normalcy of how we were living before. Will everything be like it used to be, NO, but America along with the rest of the world is going to have to get back in the saddle at some point. The biggest issue I see is that these sports leagues and amateurs is being sued or being held negligible if someone or a an amount of people get sick at one of their events. If they could play a baseball season in 1918 with a flu pandemic and a World War going on I'm sure these leagues can find a way to resume or start their seasons in these modern times.

Are you hiding under a rock? This virus is spreading with no end in sight. A cure could easily take 6+ months from now before all the trials are done and approved. There's no chance the authorities would allow 100k people in a stadium at once for a College Football game.

 
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Posted: #19

Yup like Kirk Herbstreit said probably NO sports this year. Does not look good if they don't get a vaccine soon quiet

 
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Posted: #20

Not allowing 100,000 people in a stadium does not mean a game cannot be played. Remember March Madness was going to be played without fans. TV is where the money is at. 

But what happens when a team member or staff tests positive? All games cancelled?? Hmmmm.

My guess is this virus will peak about mid-late April with May/June a recovery period. Vaccine to be distributed by late fall before flu season.

Hey, let's stay reasonably positive!!!!

 
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Posted: #21

Are you hiding under a rock? This virus is spreading with no end in sight. A cure could easily take 6+ months from now before all the trials are done and approved. There's no chance the authorities would allow 100k people in a stadium at once for a College Football game.

No I'm in self quarantining like everybody else, but I'm living in this place called REALITY try visiting it sometime. A vaccine is already a months to a year away it is not coming anytime soon. No one said anything about jamming a stadium full of 100k. So if we're going to hold are breathe waiting on some miracle drug to appear to make things better it's not going to happen that's not REALITY. Yes numbers keep going up in NYC and other high populated areas, but other areas were it's not as populated(rural) the numbers are low and the curve is starting to flatten. China is starting to get back to normal in particular the people of Wuhan why can't the US at some point. 

 
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Posted: #22

Seen some win totals at DraftKings took Oklahoma St. over 8(+100) wins for the 2020-21 season. 2.5 units

Worst case scenario season gets pushed back or cancelled and I get all money back I've put on these pre-season bets to use on something else.

 
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Posted: #23

Saying a prayer with everyone that the world gets through this soon.... And... May I never take my normal life and college football for granted ever again. 

With that....  Let's assume players come filing back in the fall and everyone gets a decent camp, what degen angles are we keying on?... Maybe more importantly are we seeing vegas overreact in a particular way shading certain teams that would be obvious targets?...maybe TD, the week 1 super sniper, can clue us in if he sees that vegas is reacting to this in some particular way or if gamblers are keying on something based on subsequent movement?...

Couple teams I think will be impacted more than others...

Navy - Backup QB Perry Olsen got about 40 snaps LY with maybe best moment being a 15 play TD drive vs Uconn coming late in H2 of that one ... Malcolm Perry meanwhile had racked up 3 TD's in the previous 10 plays ... Backup Perry otherwise had a lot of 3-outs and ended the season rushing for 2.5 ypc and 25% completions... MP had 2k rushing and 1k passing on a team that scored 62 TD's... So when ESPN says Navy's returning O production is (an already low) 50% what they mean is it's closer to 0.00050% ..  Backup guy could have used spring practice but maybe worse is now there's no competition for the spot until Fall and nobody else on the team has any game snaps ... Navy get's ND and then Lafayette before conf starts week 3 w Tulane.. so almost assured we're going to see multiple QB's get looks in the first couple weeks unless they're just gunna wing it with Backup Perry... 

So gotta lean toward laying the 16.5 with ND right?.... the problems ND is dealing with are way more first world in comparison... Book is back with best 7 OL's (Best OL?) and will be dominant in the trenches ... I was expecting ND -21 kinda where the line was for ND/L'ville opening LY... I think it's not up there at least not yet because .... service academy... next man up .... they don't change much year over year right?....Well just FYI Navy was net net +220 y/game last year compared to '18... Not just #1 in net ypg increase but but 50ypg ahead of #2 Cent. Mich who jumped a piddly net 170ypg ... So might just be their mistake mistake if anyone thinks Navy can't turn back into a pumpkin in a hurry... Might be worth looking for a ML vs Lafayette in week 2 also  because the shoe might drop pretty quick on the Middies this year.. 

Miss St - I saw an interview a while back w Leach talking about his how much more work they try to fit in the spring with long practices and keep things really short and streamlined in the fall and even in the season.. so besides a tough transformation it seems like the carona is also messing with the  coaches cadence for how he planned to build his team up... We can also look back to Leach's first year at Wazzu and see that even with experienced senior QB jeff tuel its tough to add 300 more pass attempts/yr and be smooth sailing ... Wazzu 3-9 in year 1, 12 wins first 3 yrs... and even with Kliff Kingsbury at T-Tech they killed 7 really easy teams and bombed against anything decent...  Not much else but seems like the struggle will be more than real for the Bulldogs this year... 

 
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Posted: #24

Also... Maybe some other scenarios come up like if heat/humidity actually lowers risk of transmission.. sounds like jury is still out on that one... but if that ends up being the case some schools would obvi have less risk in the summer and might advantage them in some way even if just getting together for workouts... Also you could imagine a situation where if fall camps are a go some locations may need to change ... you can bet a wealthy team like ND would have a much easier time if for instance the AD said they need to seclude themselves for fall practice somewhere... Navy / many others may have more difficulty if they had to change locations .... = Could be shorter or crappier fall camp for the less resourceful ... stuff to just keep in mind as we see it plays out... 

Good luck all

 
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Posted: #25

Locked in ... first bet of the season....   ND -13.5/Navy at BOL.. 

 

Some GOY leans/likes (DK numbers)... nothing I'm playing just yet.... 

Wisco +3.5 @ Mich.... Wisco D should be fo-real especially pass D which is such a hot commodity, and maybe the hottest with spring being cancelled... and vs brand new QB who didn't get a spring I like the matchup... Mich able to speed things up and get more complicated with Shea last year might not be smooth sailing for the new guy if they don't dumb it down... Chabonay and the rush attack was nothing special all year... I definitely like the prospect of Wisco's power run game being on all cylinders by week 4 ... Mich may not be in full swing until much later... 

Cincy +6@ Nebraska? ..... Really like Cincy, if we can get to 7 or 7.5 I think its a deal ... Braskey ready to break out of their 20 year funk?... 

Baylor @ Oklahoma -14  ... Brewer playing this year?... might not matter... Bay D is D-pleted and Mims gone he was a true gem ... if Brewer is not back those couple QB tackling dummies they had in reserve might end up going backwards this game.. 

UF+3.5 / UGA... Gators roll this year... very exciting team.. 

 

RSW Leans and likes ... 

Kent St Over 4.5 - Non-con schedule is brutal but they should beat kennisaw, BG and Akron... there's 6 other MAC games and dustin crumb gives them a shot in probably all 6 of them... 6/7 TFL tacklers back and 3/4 DB's means gotta like 4.5 for the Flash Fast Flashes ... 

Louisville Over 6.5 - exciting team .. pretty much whole team played together for 2 years now so should be better than last years 6-win team. 

Navy Under 7.5 - AAC too tough and they lost tooo much 

Mid T Over 6 - Maybe a little high but Asher O'hara is a total gamer and gunna pull a few surprise W's this year....

Tulane Under 5.5..... might see if 6 or 6.5 is available... Not a good year for offense to be gutted... 

UTSA Over 3.5..... would check for 3 but  

ECU Over 4 - Holton Ahlers is a name to get to know but 4 might be too many with an AAC schedule.

UL Monroe Under 4 ...would want at 5 since cal poly, texas state and Liberty on the schedule gives little wiggle room .. but with bye in week 2 after FCS means 11 straight games including roadie to UGA and homer with GA.SO before..... 6 of last 8 on the road on the road with Appy and ULL being the two homers... will be insanely tough for them but 4 is still do-able...   

 

....And just noticing little Old Dominion... hmmm 24-21 vs Norfolk was only win last year and lost 11 straight  ... laying -120 for Over 3?... i mean which 4 will they maybe win?... smells like a trap... check the transfer logs... 

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