Posted:
#1
Why mess with this line at 2?....when the play should be on the Under 53! 
Anyway! So I input stats and info every week for the system I use. It then takes everything and runs all this together --- SOS (overall - compares both teams), SOS (as far as run/pass defenses and run/pass offenses they've played and vice versa for every game!), Rankings of all other Pass/Run D's they've played and Pass/Run Offenses they played. Here are outcomes:
S. Florida & Rutgers
Total Defense Ranked #12 --- Total Defense Ranked #15
Run Defense Ranked #26 --- Not in Top 30 rankings.
Pass Defense Ranked #15 --- Pass Defense Ranked #5
Total Offense Ranked #24 --- Total Offense Ranked #11 (#11 due to the weak opponents)
Pass Defense: 1068 Yards --- Pass Defense: 946 Yards
Pass Offense: 1278 Yards --- Pass Offense: 1,845 Yards
Run Defense: 638 Yards --- Run Defense: 835 Yards
Run Offense: 1,083 Yards -- Rush Offense: 1,093 Yards
Pts For: 211 ------------ Pts for: 223
Pts Agst: 94 ------------ Pts Agst: 103
Both Teams have Played 6 Games
Rutgers is shown to have better Pass Defense and Better Total Offense, BUT, that is due to opponents! The Overall rankings:
S. Florida Overall Ranking #11
Rutgers Overall Ranking #20
Oddly enough, after all numbers and percentages are taken into account, it shows S. Florida being a 3 point favorite. This system is usually close to being right on LVCS lines, and that is why it exposes lines. ANYWAY, the system cannot take into account that Rutgers has played and ran up huge numbers on a team like Norfolk St. because this system only has D1 schools. Same deal with S. Florida vs Elon. So wash those stats away and S. Florida has the higher SOS, easily. Basically, all of this means that LVSC set a great public line. However, USF has the better numbers all around vs a better SOS and the system says the line should actually be S. Florida by 6.814....So we'll say USF -7. Since the system line is over doubled the actual line, South Florida -2 is the Play. It's not an extremely strong play for a favorite though, but a play none the less.
And my "human" breakdown:
I actually think this game will come down to QB play, and S. Florida gets the nod with Grothe. Also, S. Florida has the top rusher, or was recently the top rusher, in D1. So nod goes to USF on the RB. AND, I believe USF has the better overall defense. This Rutgers team is not the Rutgers team of last year, however, they are still getting respect like they are. Yes, they will be fired up but S. Florida is like the Rutgers of last year. They are the team who has a chip in their shoulder and out to prove they are a legit football program, who is not only building, but who is sitting at #2 on the BCS Poll.
Anyway! So I input stats and info every week for the system I use. It then takes everything and runs all this together --- SOS (overall - compares both teams), SOS (as far as run/pass defenses and run/pass offenses they've played and vice versa for every game!), Rankings of all other Pass/Run D's they've played and Pass/Run Offenses they played. Here are outcomes:
S. Florida & Rutgers
Total Defense Ranked #12 --- Total Defense Ranked #15
Run Defense Ranked #26 --- Not in Top 30 rankings.
Pass Defense Ranked #15 --- Pass Defense Ranked #5
Total Offense Ranked #24 --- Total Offense Ranked #11 (#11 due to the weak opponents)
Pass Defense: 1068 Yards --- Pass Defense: 946 Yards
Pass Offense: 1278 Yards --- Pass Offense: 1,845 Yards
Run Defense: 638 Yards --- Run Defense: 835 Yards
Run Offense: 1,083 Yards -- Rush Offense: 1,093 Yards
Pts For: 211 ------------ Pts for: 223
Pts Agst: 94 ------------ Pts Agst: 103
Both Teams have Played 6 Games
Rutgers is shown to have better Pass Defense and Better Total Offense, BUT, that is due to opponents! The Overall rankings:
S. Florida Overall Ranking #11
Rutgers Overall Ranking #20
Oddly enough, after all numbers and percentages are taken into account, it shows S. Florida being a 3 point favorite. This system is usually close to being right on LVCS lines, and that is why it exposes lines. ANYWAY, the system cannot take into account that Rutgers has played and ran up huge numbers on a team like Norfolk St. because this system only has D1 schools. Same deal with S. Florida vs Elon. So wash those stats away and S. Florida has the higher SOS, easily. Basically, all of this means that LVSC set a great public line. However, USF has the better numbers all around vs a better SOS and the system says the line should actually be S. Florida by 6.814....So we'll say USF -7. Since the system line is over doubled the actual line, South Florida -2 is the Play. It's not an extremely strong play for a favorite though, but a play none the less.
And my "human" breakdown:
I actually think this game will come down to QB play, and S. Florida gets the nod with Grothe. Also, S. Florida has the top rusher, or was recently the top rusher, in D1. So nod goes to USF on the RB. AND, I believe USF has the better overall defense. This Rutgers team is not the Rutgers team of last year, however, they are still getting respect like they are. Yes, they will be fired up but S. Florida is like the Rutgers of last year. They are the team who has a chip in their shoulder and out to prove they are a legit football program, who is not only building, but who is sitting at #2 on the BCS Poll.
0
RUTGERS& OVER
Will the upset bug show up Thursday night? No! Rutgers not the same team they were a year ago when they snuke up on people. S. Florida has there eye on the prize. Rutgers leads the game until the mid 3rd qtr, then S. Florida wears them down takes the lead and puts it in overdrive. Double digit victory folks. 
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