well, here's where I am at the moment...
ML dogs: 4-11, 26.6%, +1.45 units
ML plays:
Indiana +132
Kentucky +230
Georgia +145
Toledo +160
Washington +235
spread plays:
Michigan St -13.5
Penn St -3 (-105)
Troy -10.5
Texas A&M/Miami, FL U46.5 (-110)
possible MLs:
Akron
Air Force
New Mexico St
Iowa
SJSU
Oregon St
North Texas
Arkansas St
of those, I am most likely to add on SJSU, Oregon St, Akron, and North Texas. Which means I'm unlikely to add anymore...
Kent St @ Akron
Akron got more than 69 yards of total offense last week. That's something positive. Kent st beat Delaware St. Even Syracuse might be able to beat Delaware St. Akron gave Indiana a game for about a half, and they did especially well through the air, but they couldn't run or stop the run worth a Syracuse. Indiana rushed for 338 at 6.9 yards per carry! Kent St rushed for 202 vs Iowa St (4ypc), and they gave up 158 (4.1ypc). Against Kentucky, Kent St rushed for 324 (5.5 ypc) and gave up 266 (6.8ypc)...not to mention the flurry of passes for another 200 yards.
A trend to note with the smaller schools, and I'm not just talking about the SunBelt...but Kentucky is going to have a bit more depth than Kent St, so while Kent St and Akron almost made a presentable game out of it in the 1st Half, they really got shelled by larger schools in the second. (Indiana pounding Akron and Kent getting torched for 42 in the 2H - they were tie games in the first half) The point is that there's a great deal of variance with the smaller schools.
speaking of variance...thus far, Kent St likes to cough up 4 TOs per game. ...even against Delaware St.
Akron might be well worth a try at 175ish...I'd prefer to have 2:1, and I might even get it with the perception being that 'obviously' Kent st is better....
Illinois @ Indiana
I really think this should be a pick. If I can get 150, then I'll play Indiana. More, of course, is better. Illinois put up a great show versus Missouri but gave up 20 to the Cuse...is that bad? and Indiana gave up 24 to Akron...but Illinois is no Akron.
For some history,
Illinois 1-15 in their last 16 Big10 openers.
Indiana 1-14 in last fifteen Big10 openers.
The home team has won the last 4 of 5.
Indiana won last year as 8pt dogs AT Illinois (lone exception to previous stat).
Both teams have most of their starters back from last year. In: 9/7 Ill: 9/8
Illinois has lost the last 13 Big10 openers by an average of 19ppg.
Indiana goes to Iowa and Illinois goes to Penn St next week. Both or neither have a look-ahead.
I like this one.
Washington @ UCLA
UCLA gave up 5 TOs last week. Utah even held em to 2.7ypc. Aside from TOs, the game really was quite even. The same is true of Washington (4TOs) hosting tOSU last week...though tOSU did get more rushing yardage.
Honestly, I would like 2:1 on Washington here. If the Huskies can put up 350 yards on the tOSU defense, and Utah puts up 44 on UCLA's defense without their #1 QB and RB, then I think we can likely expect a Pac10 shootout...and in that event I'll only need a couple balls to bounce my way to get the win.
Also, interestingly, the UCLA offense hit a damned wall...the FGs made were 45 and 52 yard FGs....UCLA couldn't do a damned thing...
go look at this one:
https://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272510026BYU outplayed UCLA in most ways, but TOs and penalties really screwed them up. Not only does this make me think UCLA might just be a TAD over-rated, it makes me think I better consider AFA to win this week, too....
Georgia @ Alabama
to quote Saban, "we're good in the 2-minute drill"
Too bad they couldn't stop Arkansas thereby making it so they'd BETTER be good at the 2-minute drill. I liked bama at Vandy, but I thought that line against Arky was about perfect...turns out it was. Bama gave up 300 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. Each team gave up 3 TOs. And FDs and even 3rd down conversions were about even. Each team had 7 penalties.
That rushing defense has got to have Saban pissing down his leg, though. UGA got over 4ypc against W Carolina AND South Carolina.
I'm not so sure there's value here at only -3ish...but if it gets up to where I can get over 2:1.....I'd really like 2.5:1...then I'll play it and fade Saban.
UGA is 1-7 in Tuscaloosa. Ever. Richt won the last trip there in 2002 - the score was 27-25. UGA pounded em 37-23 in 2003.
Kentucky @ Arkansas
If Kentucky can stop the run occasionally, then this will be a great play. I think they can. And I will likely play Kentucky on the ML. Big danger is a letdown spot after the Louie game, but I think Kentucky has big plans this year...and Louie mighta just been the first step.
But they will have to stop the run from time to time...
San Jose St @ Utah St
How do you assign a favorite here? SJSU is a likely bet. Wonder how much I'll get on the ML...?
FAU @ North Texas
I hoped for a bit more out of NT...at any rate, FAU dominated MTSU. NT's rushing game is practically nonexistent, and the passing game is going to have to be great against FAU...I mean, NT managed to lose to SMU....
check this wacky shit:
https://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272512567The question, ultimately, is can FAU stop NT's passing attack. If they can, then NT's going to lose. Period. If they cannot, note Minny's passing attack:
31-47, 7.1ypa, 335 yards, 4 tds,
4 INTSminny had 7 TOs...and FAU won 42-39...
at 3.5:1...more is better, then I would have to play this. North Texas is a passing team, though...and the air and FAU's secondary is the issue here.
much to think about in this game.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
