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Underdog Money Lines Week 4 (9/20-9/22)

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Posted: #76
PS UGA is my favorite play of the week so far.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by The Garfather:

GAM, the Auburn fade experiment is over for me, at least right now.  I knew coming into the season they weren't going to be any good, I just picked all the wrong spots by taking KSU, yet passing on USF and MSU.  I would love to get my money back from that shitty team, but at some point you have to know when to say when, and just admit that you don't have a good read.

Iowa will certainly get some consideration from me.  Not sure how much they will want to play though.  That was a bad loss for  them.

 

Garf all in all wouldnt you at least take the Points with NMSU +16.5 and let some funds ride on the point that Auburn cant even hold a lead no less lay +16.5 ??????    Your really going to pass on this ?  Good Luck anyways

 
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Posted: #78
Official Play: Toledo +165

Can't fathom it moving north of that point.  I've been wrong before though.
 
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Posted: #79
garfather- I'm surprised at all the support I see here and elsewhere for Toledo. They have shown me nothing so far to inspire  confidence . I realize ISU is pretty bad. but so is Toledo.
 
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Posted: #80
ISU is probably worse, so for them to be favored is in correct as far as I am concerned.  There won't be a worse situation all year either.  Crappy team going nowhere wins their rivalry game then has to go on the road to a mid-major who will be looking for a pound of flesh after what happened last season.  Clearly the Rockets aren't as good as the average Big 12 or Big 10 teams, but they should be able to compete with the worst of the bad from BCS conferences, especially at home.

Losuds, I'm not betting Auburn until I feel like I have a handle on their team and at this juncture I clearly do not.

Why is it so hard to get quality injury information on college kids?  If anybody hears anything about Duke Calhoun please let me know.  Between his availability and the readiness of Doss and Greg Jackson that will determine if I take the Tigers ML or not.  Those are three critical pieces to their success in this game.  If they're all out, or even if the 2 offensive guys won't be there, I will swing my opinion all the way back to a UCF lean, but probably not a play.
 
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Posted: #81

I see value in N. Carolina St. and Oregon St.

BOL all!

 
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Posted: #82
how about Indiana, UVA and Michigan?

Got this feeling about UConn.

GL,
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

how about Indiana, UVA and Michigan?

Got this feeling about UConn.

GL,


The thing about Pitt/UConn is that Pitt may have LeSean McCoy receive more direct snaps since it worked pretty well in the second half against Michigan State. It's hard to gauge UConn's rush D since they really haven't played anyone. With the uncertainty surrounding the Pitt offense, I wouldn't necessarily play the ML. If anything, play the under.
 
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Posted: #84
Calhoun.....will miss UCF and possibly others with sprained acl
 
Jackson..... out 2 - 3   weeks
 
Doss ...... Expected to play
 
A couple of key losses here for sure ....most feel they can make up for the loss of Calhoun ...not so sure about Jackson
 
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Posted: #85
Not going to play A&M I don't think.  To be honest I can't get a feel for either one of these weeknight games.

I will need at least 4:1 on Notre Dame to make that a play, otherwise I might just have to take the 12 or so points.

Can't really imagine playing Michigan after the way they have looked, but I will leave  it on there for now in the event that the value goes up to a point at which I am interested.

Arkansas actually looks like a decent lay the more I consider that.  I would like to take Kentucky, but I can't on the one hand say Toledo is a good play because ISU is in a bad spot and then not acknowledge that UK is in a bind as well.  What's good for the goose is good for the gander as they say.  Razorbacks could/should be in a pissy mood.

NCSU is the one I am struggling with right now.  I think about as much of Clemson as I do of Auburn, I just want to pick my spots carefully to fade them.  There might be less expensive opportunities than the Wolfpack.

There is a little voice inside my head that keeps telling me to go with Oregon State, but they're on the blacklist for me right now and we all saw what happened last time their QBs went out  on the road.

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (2): Georgia +155 and Toledo +165

Prospective Plays (16): Indy, Washington, Michigan, Notre Dame, Memphis, North Car, NCSU, Kentucky, Connecticut, Iowa, San Jose, UNLV, Oregon State, ULL, Oklahoma St, and North Texas.
 
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Posted: #86
Thanks for the info IMGN.  Is that like saying that the Bengals would still score a lot of points without Chad Johnson, they just wouldn't be  quite as good?  Or is there legitimately no drop-off here?

Losing a veteran outside LBer with Kevin Smith up next seems like a very ill-timed injury.
 
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Posted: #87
Tommy boy loves the play of wr Maurice Jones...says hes playing better than anyone at the position.
 
The Bengals would likely still put up decent numbers if Chad was out and Henry comes off susp. Carson is lights out this year but yes....you cant replace a superstar 
 
BOL this week Gar ....that was a sharp under on LSU  lw  
 
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Posted: #88
Garfather-  I know you play the dogs you post on the ML.  Im just curious if you play them with the points as well??
 
Ive started off 22-7 this season myself.  Im sure that will be more towards .500 within 3 weeks.
 
This week the dogs Im looking at are..
 
Washington
Michigan
Notre Dame
Georgia
Mississippi
E. Carolina
S. Carolina
 
Do you have any thoughts on the Thursday or Friday Night games?
Thanks and Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #89
Sorry guys but Notre Dame has 0 value. Weiss made a comment last year that he would never lose to MSU under his watch and accused a MSU player of slapping him in the face. I am pretty close to the program and can tell you they are pissed about it and will be ready to roll on Saturday. MSU has owned this series of late and has dominated ND in south bend. MSU will run up the score if they can. Revenge game for Sparty
 
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Posted: #90
McFadden is banged up for ark. Should play but won't be 100%
 
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Posted: #91
Gar, as Matador pointed out in his thread there are a lot of teams on the road this week laying 2-5 points.  A lot of these games look like a 50/50 toss up to me.  Playing the dog ML gives you close to a 2:1 advantage in the odds, plus you get the home team.  Looks like a no brainer to me.
 
I've already taken Mich, Toledo, and Buff in this spot.  I'm looking at IU, Ohio and Akron. I'm sort of torn with the dog and the favorite in a couple of those.
 
As for other ML's.  Unless the ML number gets better I'm going to lay off Auburn even though I went after them all three weeks thus far.  South Carolina was also tempting.  I'm sort of done fading Bama, but I'm still on the fence.
 
Oregon ST will certainly get a play.  A few others I'm still looking at.
 
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Posted: #92
Army +4000 Maybe if they were allowed to use tanks.
 
 
I love this thread.. the humor, and of course the excellent write-ups. This is one of the few remaining TRUE threads in the entire forum, sadly.
 
Toledo, Memphis, Kentucky, UNLV and GA are all dog plays everyone should take on the ML.
 
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Posted: #93
love Akron
 
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Posted: #94
love Akron
 
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Posted: #95
 
I would stay away from NC State...Tommy knows what he has to do this year to keep his job.  I know there probably is not that much talk on Sports Radio, ESPN, ect...about the situatuion.  But the fact of the matter is that IPTAY (Clemsons Money) is pissed with Tommy for sucking it up halfway down the road every year.  This would be the typical game that Clemson would lose.  (like in 2004 aginst Duke)  But, not this year.  Tommy has had his ass worn-out since the lovely showing in the bowl game.  Clemsons one demention offence has expanded and will continue to do so as we approch certain appoinents.  Clemson will win this game.  We have Central Michigan the following week.  Not a threat to save up for.   NC State has Louisville the following week.  There will be a lot of Clemson fans at this game too. 
Bleed orange, it smells a little like bourbon… God loves us all
 
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Posted: #96
CU tigers i am having trouble with you on this one...i was and i am leaning to state here..but i dont see how tommy knowing hes gotten his ass chewed out is going to help them on the field this week...i think OBrian is a better coach...i think State has an ok defense and i think they will be able to score on the tigers...i think Beck who is a gun slinger will find some recievers and that will open up the ground game for Andre Brown and Jamelle Eugene...
 
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Posted: #97

I am a Clemson alum and was on here in Week 1 arguing with the likes of KOAJ about how Clemson would/should beat FSU.  And, my argument then was not that Clemson was great, but, that FSU wasn't that great.

I don't have a lot of confidence in Clemson or Tommy Bowden right now.  ULa Monroe & Furman chewed up that defense.  Furman outgained 'em for Pete's sake!  Vanilla defense or not, at some point Clemson should have out-athleted Furman and shut 'em down.  That's all I need to know to either take NCSU and the points or just stay away from this game.  Clemson's running game should tear up a depleted NCSU defense.  Clemson's defense, if it plays like it did in the FSU game, should shut down a pathetic NCSU offense.  But, like Vince said, O'Brien is a better coach and it is Clemson's first road game. 

Unfortunately for me and the rest of the Clemson fans, the play here is NCSU +7... and for the same reasons I took Clemson in Week 1... not that NCSU is great, but, Clemson definitely is not.

 
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Posted: #98
Like the GA play and Bay/Buffalo over that I believe was mentioned somewhere. Better than expected so far on ML this year, will take a shot with these this week.
 
GA +150....Bulldogs battle tested for SEC road, toss up
SJS +145.....wrong team favored
Ok St +200....shootout 45-38 either way
Minn +450....equivalent of NM long shot last week, Gophers will score and probably Purdue will score even more, still like the value
 
 
 
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Posted: #99
Awesome write-ups Garfather. You and Matador have been awesome, so thank you for all your contributions 
                                                            

GL on your ML wagers     
 
 
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Posted: #100
Gar - I saw that CSU isn't on your prospective plays.  Any reason why?  I think that game is basically a toss-up.  Two good offenses going at it.
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