Underdog Money Lines Week 4 (9/20-9/22)

GAM, its a fetish.  I don't do juice.  And 4 seems to happen almost as much as 3 anyway.  21-17 not so different from 17-14.

Can't even get 120 out of Michigan?  Fuck that bullshit, then I'm not interested.

No shit. But enough of them creep the other way, 3 to 5, 5.5 whatever. Points could come in to play here.

Yeah, initially I like CU. Line is getting away from you though. I haven't had a chance to check it yet, but I've seen a lot of CU so far. Defense surprisingly good, esp. the D-Line, which was supposed to be a big ?. Hypolite, Dizon, Wheatley all impact players that you just don't come across much in the MAC. Problem has been athleticism on offense, and I heard mention that Hawkins took the redshirt off a couple of prize recruits (skill positions) for the FSU game. Like I said, I haven't got to it yet, but check it out.....

I'm gonna go ahead and do it.  Not that I don't want you to cap it, I do, but I'm just doubting that there is any shot of it going back the other way.  13.5 is the best we may see at this point.  Not sure why I hesitated, 11 is so much better.  Oh wait, now I remember why I paused, Navy -5.5 was such a lock and all...I'm great at playing them early. lol



Colorado Buffaloes -13.5 is now in the fold as well.

Lines I feel are off and thus, the dog could have ML value:
Buffalo
Notre Dame
Colorado St.
Temple
Toledo (fuck you BTW Toledo)
NC St.
NMSU (although, I agree with Matador)
So Carolina (slight value - coaching mismatch)
UNLV
ULL (prob better spread play, but this is the SBC and can be akin to the MAC)

I think Baylor matches up nicely with Buff, but not totally sure yet.

Unusual angle on the Temple game, but their opponent will be out for revenge.  Doesn't happen much.

Toledo has to be played.  As long as the value isn't 115 or something asinine. 

Why don't folks release that GD money line at the same time as everything else?!  How are they at that much more risk of putting out a bad ML than a bad spread?!  Now I have to go to bed the shit will get released when I am at my 40-hour a week job.  Damn I need to retire.

 

Don't break your hand on my back.  I had +14.5, and I tried to get EMU at MB for +550, but *surprise* no one would buy my bet.  And by the time I looked at a book for it, it was damn near -under- 400, I think....and in disgust I said fuggit.

 

I did go 2-2, including my silly notion about ULM.

Lost Notre Dame and UL Monroe, and won FAU & New Mexico.  It was a much better week for dogs.  And you're absolutely right - I did see the ending of that Temple/UConn game, and my reaction was mirrored by the announcer,  "NO!!!!!!!! Look, I like replay, but if you're going to have it, then get the calls RIGHT."

jp1lsu - thanks for the info. Any info you have as the week goes on would be appreciated.

GAM, I am a current student at this school, and will tell you now, Troy will burn our ass.

We are a one dimensional team, who just got messed up by a Football Championship Subdivision (formally known as 1-AA) school, Mcneese St. We cannot throw the ball worth a shit, and our QB will most likely be on his ass or fleeing for his life most of the game.

Our starting QB and RB were pretty banged up in the game, and we have no team speed or size that can bring down the Trojans. Worst of all, our morale as a community is probably shot after this game. This was suppose to be a "gimme" game for us.

I went out and purchase a Ragin Cajun shirt and cap for this game, but didn't get to wear it to the game, but I'm now thinking about returning it

The spread should be in the 20s, or dare I say, the 30s for this game, if the books were there watching the game.

Thanks for the info Warblade. How bad are the ULL injuries?

I am not going to claim to be some expert of McNeese St., but Sagarin has them ranked at 97 (same as the likes of Montana, UNLV, Akron, FAU) and last week at 110 (same as the likes of MTSU, LA Tech, SDSU, Ohio U. , Memphis, NOTRE DAME!).

This may be a 1AA school, but they appear to be a good one. I know ULL can't throw for shit, and Lancaster might be the worst passing QB in the nation, but they certainly can run. The QB won't be on his ass unless it is a couple yards beyond the LOS.

Thanks for posting though, and if you have any info about those injuries, it would be very appreciated.

I'm praying that the public pounds Illinois and we see a 4 point spread here

Hoosiers ML looks great

McNeese win over ULL was no great surprise.

You are right, GAM. Mcneese is a GOOD FCS team.

What are the chances of a letdown from Troy after winning straight up as DD dogs against Okla. St.?

Red --

Sucks the NCSU line came down so far. I really like that game. Clemson some of the biggest pretenders out there.

In that their defense blows and their (lack of) passing game will be exposed.



Now, go in my thread and answer the questions I have about TTU. Thanks.

Likely or possible plays.

TAMU +125 Not sure what to do with this game, maybe just a pass.  Miami hasn't earned the right to be favored against decent competition because they cannot score, but A&M is very one-dimensional and I think the Canes may have some success limiting or taking away that dimension.
Indiana +130 I was on this same team in this same game last year and cashed it on the last play of the game with a FG.  I think Illinois is the better team, but will have to look more closely.
UW +235 My first look on this game was actually fUCLA as a short chalk, but that may be silliness if Dorrell has returned to being Dorrell.  I don't expect many more wins for the Huskies, but the future with Locker looks bright.
Georgia +155 Too much value in my opinion.  Bama struggled with a team that could only run, now they have to face a team that can run and pass, and plays a little defense too.  Official Play.  I don't do power ratings, but if I did I can assure you the Garindex would have UGA as being a couple points better than Arkansas, not worse by 0.5
Michigan +140 This is closer to the level at which I would consider them, but I still want over 150.
Notre Dame +450 Weird weird things happen in this series.  I cannot think of anything more appropriate than an outright victory by one of the youngest and most helpless (not "worst") Notre Dame teams of recent history.
Memphis +230 Is about to enter a hellish stretch (3g in 11d) of football thanks to the rescheduled ASU affair.  But in spite of that the let down factor and situation here might be enough to get the W.  Need to contain Smith though.
Virginia +140 Wasn't particularly surprised to see them break on through last Saturday, but it doesn't mean they're good, yet.   GT's first two opponents camouflaged the fact that they are awful on offense.  Hey, come to think of it, they aren't so different from the Cavs.  VT is still the team to beat in the Coastal, I don't care what anyone says.
Colorado State +245 Last team with the ball wins?
NIU +130 I really cannot imagine playing this team right now, especially coming x-country, but I'm not sure that they aren't just way better talentwise.
UNC +460 The Heels have VT on deck.  USF has WV on deck.  I bet each team would just as soon not play this game to be honest with you.  Fundamentally, I think its a bad match-up for Davis and Co., but motivation is a huge part of college football so I have to list it as a possibility.
NC State +275 I, like Matador, am not a believer in Clemson, I just have to decide if this is where I want to take my shot.
Kentucky +215 I have to at least consider them I suppose.
Connecticut +330 Were the Huskies caught looking ahead to this one?  Maybe.  I don't think Pitt is all that special.
Iowa +260 Not sure which direction Iowa's season is gonna go here.  They could rebound and compete for the Rose Bowl or they  could just mail it in like they did last season.
SJSU +150 This should be an automatic play, but USU has shown some fight at times, and the Spartans aren't doing much of anything right.
SMU +1800 Is that gonna be enough value or will TCU come out all ornery?
UNLV +280 Something feels right about this one.  They really haven't been that bad this year.
OSU +395 QB play is the only reason not to take a stab here.
ULL +425 Its the Sun Belt.
Okie State +190 Good situation, bad match-up.
North Texas +220 Its the Sun Belt.

22 possibles.  A couple won't be long for the list, I can almost tell by looking, but at this point in the season I owe it to myself to take at least a quick look because these teams are no longer complete unknowns and there is now some information available.

I neglected to list Toledo, but I'm almost certain to play them, just have to get a handle on where the max value will be.