Underdog Money Lines Week 4 (9/20-9/22)

Season Record: 2-5
Season Units: -0.50

Fifteen dogs won outright (if you count USM) which is a really great sign for this particular methodology.  As a group were a little ahead of schedule (being just wk 3) historically so I am not sure that the eruption will continue next week yet, I think it could still be the last weekend of Sept or first of Oct before they consistently hit double digit winners in a given weekend, but at least we are getting something more and heading in the right direction.  Problem is many of them were tough to see coming like Duke, Troy, Iowa State, and Tulsa.  Those were not easily spotted so congrats to any that found those Easter eggs.  The only two that I had inclination to play that I pulled back from were EMU and New Mexico.  Wish I had stayed on those, but the Lobos value was awful and there wasn't anything on paper to suggest an Eagle play, only that "its the MAC".

We push forward...

Lookout list pending value: A&M, Indy/Illinois, UW, Georgia, PSU/UM, OSU, Notre Dame, Memphis, UVA/GT, CSU, Toledo, Maryland, NCSU, UK, Ohio, Iowa, USU/SJSU, UNLV, Oregon State, ULL, NT, and Ark State.

Iowa 7.5 dogs so +300 should be available.
NMSU +850?

GAM, the Auburn fade experiment is over for me, at least right now.  I knew coming into the season they weren't going to be any good, I just picked all the wrong spots by taking KSU, yet passing on USF and MSU.  I would love to get my money back from that shitty team, but at some point you have to know when to say when, and just admit that you don't have a good read.

Iowa will certainly get some consideration from me.  Not sure how much they will want to play though.  That was a bad loss for  them.

Came out plus pretty good myself, but can't help feeling like we left money on the table. Damn, that's a lot of upsets. I had BC, Miss St. and Utah, but missed on too many of the other shots I took. I feel foolish for not being on New Mexico and Kentucky. Also foreseeable were probably Ball St. and FAU. AFA maybe, but file that under "weird shit happens." Who could expect it was even possible for Okie St. to play that bad? Tulsa maybe, EMU just because as you say it's the MAC, but ISU and Duke???? Those would have been about LAST on my list. Actually counterexamples to your theory that superior teams should win the close ones. Northwestern and Iowa should have prevailed in the end, but just didn't. One more that should be on the list is Temple. Did you see what happened at the end of that game? I doubt there are many, but if you held a Temple ML ticket, that is easily the biggest moose I have ever seen in my life.

And props to Redbearde. Without looking it up, it occurs to me that he was on EMU. Big time call, that.

Auburn could lose that game on the road, but not at home. They benched Cox, so things are looking up......

What I wouldn't eliminate immediately:

Akorn +200, Notre Dame +600, Memphis +300, Col. St. +300, Arizona +1000, UNC +500, Maryland +200, NCState +350, Marshall +2000, Kentucky +300, Iowa +350, SJSU +200, SMU +1500, Minnesota +500, Ore. St. +350, ULL +400, UNT +250.

My vigorous endorsement of Navy was clearly unwarranted.  I still had the EMU/Navy game too much in mind I suppose.  But Minnesota was the right side, especially for anyone (like me) getting it at less than a TD.  They should have easily covered and won.  I would make that play again each of the next ten times and I would win it each of the next ten times.

From the files of "what comes around goes around"...Phil Steele had his play of the year two years ago on Wyoming facing TCU.  They lost in large part thanks to 7 turnovers.  This year FAU was his play of the year (or at least play of Sept) and the only reason it won was thanks to 7 Gopher turnovers.  Things always even themselves out.

Kentucky I would never have played and indeed I almost bought a Louisville ticket.  Ditto BYU, almost backed the Cougs and thank God I didn't.

The only one I am really kicking myself for was EMU.  I thought that because of the way NIU lost to SIU, focus could be problem and I think that is exactly what happened.

Some of those I would really agree with and some of those I wouldn't even consider.

Behave, I am actually considering the Wolverines, but will need to dig a little deeper.  A big win and shutout over a rival is the sort of thing that could get the ship righted even though there is no way they will be able to meet their previous sets of expectations coming into fall camp.

Matador, said he doesn't like them because he doesn't trust Mallet to open up the rushing attack for Hart.

Right now Oregon State is a twelve-point underdog, so the ML will be a tad higher. I might consider that, taking into account how undisciplined Erickson's team has played. I think the Oregon State blowout loss at Cincy may be bit of an aberration.

I don't know what the hell has happened to SJSU. They go from dominating NewMex in the bowl game last year and come out and shit the bed against Arizona State, Kansas State and Stanford. This is despite having one of the top three QBs in the WAC with Adam Tafralis. I know Utah State royally blows, but I'm wondering if the team has turned on Dick Tomey.

Some people might think you're crazy for considering Notre Dame, but they still have decent enough players on both sides of the ball to pull of an upset against an undisciplined MSU team (new coach, but some things never change).

Minnesota and Purdue will probably be a track meet, but that's one I'd consider if you take into account Purdue's cruddy D.

UNC is a good one, too. As much as I like USF and QB Grothe, haven't we seen this before when an up-and-coming team gets a landmark victory, only to lose an inexplicable game the next time?

I noticed you left off Buffalo, which is getting 5 points from Baylor at home (assume the ML will be +180). Buffalo QB Drew Willy carved up Penn State's 2nd unit pretty well. As you mentioned in a past post, his performance stats may be somewhat inflated by the fact he throws mostly screens, but at least the offense seems to have its timing down.

NCState at home is another good one because, well, it's about that time for Tommy Bowden to blow one.

Yup NC state should upset  clemson. They always blow a game like this every year.

lemonsky, that was Mat telling you about Buff.  I am really not that familiar with them.  Baylor passes well and the Bulls don't defend it so well which could be a real problem.

NCSU will certainly get a look from me.

easy, that line is higher than i thought so there actually is some value present there.  I will looking more closely at the Huskies.

I wouldn't touch this game with a ten foot pole except for the under. I just don't trust either team - MSU handling success and ND handing a defense not composed of the little sisters of the poor. ND has yet to prove they can get a first down against any defense much less score which, the last time I checked was a requirement to win.  Further, the back up QB just left and there is apparently more bad news coming down the road... so stay tuned.

Gar --

Not a ML, but I have an early look for you. Wyoming. I'll tell you later, but in the meantime take a look and tell me what you think. Greek has 3, BM 3.5. I'd like to decide early because if it really is good, I'd like to lock in 3 before it goes up.....

For me that game is Wyoming or nothing and I actually might play the Cowboys.  In three games the Pokes have only allowed 2 rushes of 10 yards or more, one against USU and one against BSU.  McRae loves to rip of a couple  long gains every game, that is where he gets his yards, and I don't think that will be available this week just as it wasn't against the Hokies (22 for 55, long of 8).  Did you see the p-b-p for the VT-OU game?  W/o a muffed punt and a personal foul on the same drive, Ohio gets shut out of that one.  Is Wyoming's defense as good as VT's?  Probably not, but they are closer to VT than they are to ULL or Gardner-Webb I bet.

Yes, I capped the game, that's why I brought it up. Wyoming doesn't have nearly the athletes VT does, but they're good enough and they're disciplined. Ohio likes to pop that play action over the LB's, but maybe  WYO too smart. Boise had ONE play > 20 yds, so they ain't getting fooled easily. WYO might not score a ton, but shouldn't they win? Early season history very good on the road L2 years.

Best thing Ohio did Sat. was punt 13 times. Zero turnovers kept them from getting blown out vs a still very ? VPI offense. Meanwhile ULL (the team they beat) loses at home to McNeese by 3 scores.....

A play? If so, lock in the 3?

yeah, why not?  I'm gonna have to settle for swallowing the hook though as the only two books that I have available funds at right now are 3.5



We'll ride together on this one, you got the wheel I got shotgun.  Let's make it official, Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 is now locked in.

OK, done and did.

I know we are all averse to juice here, but why not buy this to a FG? That is one of the few times it is prudent to buy a hook.

Some ML's now up at Pinnacle.

Not sure why you ask me about line moves, you know its gonna be 2.5 by morning.

Speaking of line moves - or of a line that already moved - does Miami have enough left in the tank for that trip to Boulder?  My gut feeling is telling me that 2 touchdowns might seem pretty small by the time its all said and done.  Apart from the last four minutes of the first half against ASU and the first four minutes of the second half against CSU their defense has held its own.