Texas A&M @ OSU -3.5 / 67
I like how these teams match up as both have had very similar starts. All 3 have started their season against 3 soft teams, both have had surprising scares (FIU, Troy) at home, both teams can score points in bunches with an explosive passing and running attack, and both teams are now 3-0 going into Thursday's battle on 12 days rest.
Both teams were expected to be 3-0 at this point, but preseason projections had Texas A&M as the "team to watch" and OSU predicted to be in growth mode with a young but talented team.
Trends:
- Texas A&M is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas A&M's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State
- Texas A&M is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
| Oklahoma State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games |
| Oklahoma State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games |
QB Struggles in tight games against small conference teams at home:
Against Troy, Cowboy quarterback Brandon Weeden was intercepted twice and lost two fumbles. Against Florida International, Johnson had a similarly difficult experience. He was 11-of-31 passing. He was intercepted four times. He was sacked six times.
Line Movement: Line opened at -3, has since gone to -3.5, a small move in line with the heavy public siding of OSU (78%)
Weather: Looks like projected ideal conditions, Low 80's, clear, light wind.
Lean and Thought: Boone Pickens Stadium will be rocking in the spotlight for sure. With A&M you have a "vet" senior QB in Johnson whom outside the FIU game has a history of taking good care of the ball and a solid upperclass led defense. But here is where I worry, I do not know if the strength of this A&M defense (LB's and Dends) will be able to shine against the spead O. If it comes down to putting pressure on the QB, they will need find a way to disguise coverage to limit the dink and dunk plays of OSU. I DO NOT see OSU being able to break off the big plays as they have aginast much weaker and shallow defenses as they have in games 1 through 3. From the other side of the ball, I see A&M running their "pro style" offense with emphasis on running the ball downhill and setting up play action for the big plays. In both scenerios, I see a running clock and 2 offenses going up against the best defenses they have faced all year (although neither stellar).
I will likely be playing UNDER, and at the moment leaning on the senior leadership and IMO a more well rounded A&M team.
Would love to hear thoughts and insight from those who know these teams well.
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