What are your Superlocks?
I bet Miami Fl , Orgeon and Stanford
What are your Superlocks?
I bet Miami Fl , Orgeon and Stanford
I'm narrowing it down from 6 to 4. I'll post em later tonight. I did have buffalo -1 and the over 51 tonight along with Central Michigan -17 and the over 50. Hope Miami (OH) scores a few TD's in this 2nd half
Here are my top plays for this Saturday; I have 4 locks (3*) , 4 Super locks (5*) and my Top PLAY OF THE DAY (10*). (each star is $100 play)
LOCKS SUPERLOCKS
wisconsin +6.5 Southern Miss -7.5
Indiana +3.5 Florida St -17
Central Florida -19.5 Arkansas -10.5
Uconn +6 SMU +3.5
TOP PLAY OF THE DAY
Hawaii -3.5
your welcome :) Thats what this forum thing is really for. To analyze, discuss, highlight and give opinions or leans on certain games. I don't claim to be an expert or know more than the next guy but I spend ALOT of time handycapping these games because there is REAL MONEY involved here. I would more than appreciate someone posting a play that they feel strongly about and breaking it down for me (or us...). This way we can discuss it and perhaps agree or disagree. It's just too bad that these forums become a "tee-off" for the box's who have no balls, to come in here and just blast peoples picks. I hope that my strong selections do well as I put in close to 40hrs breaking this weekends card down.
Here are my top plays for this Saturday; I have 4 locks (3*) , 4 Super locks (5*) and my Top PLAY OF THE DAY (10*). (each star is $100 play)
LOCKS SUPERLOCKS
wisconsin +6.5 Southern Miss -7.5
Indiana +3.5 Florida St -17
Central Florida -19.5 Arkansas -10.5
Uconn +6 SMU +3.5
TOP PLAY OF THE DAY
Hawaii -3.5
Hey Ryan.....Where are your "Top Plays"?? You post like a rookie criticizing others...why don't you go on record with your strong plays for the weekend....Be a man and go on record you box!
Hawaii/San Jose St breakdown.
San Jose St and Hawaii are going opposite directions. Hawaii has won two and a row and San Jose St are losers of the last 7. In the last 3 games the Spartans have scored 7, 7, and 9 points against those same 3 defenses that give up an average of 29pts/game. Now Hawaii has played two of those same three teams (nevada and utah st) and has put up an ave of 35pts against those same two teams. Also you MUST factor in, that this is a REVENGE game for Hawaii. Yes, it's only "bulletin board material" as my coach used to say, but coaches use this stuff to get teams fired up. I don't buy into that it makes a huge difference but these are 19-23yr old kids who are just looking for extra motivation. Taking all this into consideration, Hawaii less than a touchdown fav...Play Hawaii BIG. Guarantee the line shoots up to 6-7.5 by kickoff. Expect a 49-30 score (or around there) when the last tick comes off the clock.
Hawaii/San Jose St breakdown.
San Jose St and Hawaii are going opposite directions. Hawaii has won two and a row and San Jose St are losers of the last 7. In the last 3 games the Spartans have scored 7, 7, and 9 points against those same 3 defenses that give up an average of 29pts/game. Now Hawaii has played two of those same three teams (nevada and utah st) and has put up an ave of 35pts against those same two teams. Also you MUST factor in, that this is a REVENGE game for Hawaii. Yes, it's only "bulletin board material" as my coach used to say, but coaches use this stuff to get teams fired up. I don't buy into that it makes a huge difference but these are 19-23yr old kids who are just looking for extra motivation. Taking all this into consideration, Hawaii less than a touchdown fav...Play Hawaii BIG. Guarantee the line shoots up to 6-7.5 by kickoff. Expect a 49-30 score (or around there) when the last tick comes off the clock.
what makes you like Miss St and Maryland? Marylands QB is banged up and doubtful for saturdays game, their top RB Da'rel Scott is out for the season, their back up 2 RB's are banged up and doubtful. They are not gonna stop Fla St..their only hope is to match points for points and with all their offensive injuries, thats NOT gonna happen. As far as Miss St, how can you go with a QB that has thrown 4 TDS and 13 INT's? Also, this is a conf game and a REVENGE game for ARK. Arkansas is gonna put up points easily against the very suspect and very young Miss St secondary. Can Miss St do the same against a veteran Ark DF team (20 seniors)? IMO I don't think so....Arkansas 36-20
I like the USF play a lot.
BOL
Yea...Loisville is horrible on OF. They have an ok DF but South Florida has too much speed at QB and WR. I see USF at home in a REVENGE game to open it up large and Lousville not able to match them points for points. USF 39-14
what makes you like Miss St and Maryland? Marylands QB is banged up and doubtful for saturdays game, their top RB Da'rel Scott is out for the season, their back up 2 RB's are banged up and doubtful. They are not gonna stop Fla St..their only hope is to match points for points and with all their offensive injuries, thats NOT gonna happen. As far as Miss St, how can you go with a QB that has thrown 4 TDS and 13 INT's? Also, this is a conf game and a REVENGE game for ARK. Arkansas is gonna put up points easily against the very suspect and very young Miss St secondary. Can Miss St do the same against a veteran Ark DF team (20 seniors)? IMO I don't think so....Arkansas 36-20
The following formula has produced a 29-13 record the past month.
1. Create a table with 6 columns: Away, Home, Sprd, VI, WL, Tot.
2. Go to wagerline.com on game day and list all the teams who are favored by 11.5 to 20.0 points
4. Next, under the "WL" column enter the wagerline.com consensus percentage.
5. Next, go to vegasinsider.com and list the consensus percentage for the spread under the "VI" column.
6. Delete any rows where the VI value is less than 80% OR if the WL value is less than 60%.
7. The remaining games are you WINNERS for the week.
8. Next, add the two percentages together and enter this total in the "TOT" column
9. Sort the spreadsheet by the "TOT" column from highest values to lowest values
10. The sorted total column now gives you a weight for betting units with the highest total being the best of the best.
Here are my WINNER PICKS for this coming week (with Cent. Mich already a winner under this formula)
Utah -20,
East Carolina -12.5,
Temple -12.5,
Troy -16,
Okla. St. -17,
Mizzou -15.5
I also like this formula for the home dawgs getting 21+ points
(last winner was Indiana +24.5 against Penn State)
The games fitting this trend are...
Utah State +23,
Wyoming +31.5
Games to avoid (look good but will bite you in the ass according to my trend analysis):
These games are less than 60% consensus on WL.com Or less than 80% on VI.com and with favorites giving between -1.0 and -11.0 points.
Rutgers -9.5,
Oregon -6,
Arkansas -11,
Iowa -10,
Tex. A&M -7.5,
Penn State -3,
Stanford -7,
S. Miss -8.5,
Oklahoma -6.5
****Now, I understand some of the games in the last group are winners and there are a few I actually like, but over time, this group, fitting the trend I mentioned, has a losing record this season in NCAA College Football. It's close to 50%, but it still is a LOSING TREND over time!
The above trend produced these results last week (6-0):
WIN W. Michigan -12.5 against E. Michigan
WIN GA Tech -13 against Duke
WIN Arkansas -13.5 against Troy
WIN Alabama -12.5 against Miss. St.
WIN Midd Tenn St. -14 agaisnt ULLAF
WIN Indiana +24.5 against Penn State
My only two losses last week were...
Houston -4 against Central Michigan
BYU -26.5 against New Mexico
I had two other wins outside my formula which were..
Texas -23.5 against Baylor
Temple -5.5 against Akron
Total Record for Last Week: 9-2
Ron....GREAT BREAKDOWN!!!! See, this is how it is done....AWESOME analysis. I disagree, but I do see your points. Very nicely done. Thanks 
The above trend produced these results last week (6-0):
WIN W. Michigan -12.5 against E. Michigan
WIN GA Tech -13 against Duke
WIN Arkansas -13.5 against Troy
WIN Alabama -12.5 against Miss. St.
WIN Midd Tenn St. -14 agaisnt ULLAF
WIN Indiana +24.5 against Penn State
My only two losses last week were...
Houston -4 against Central Michigan
BYU -26.5 against New Mexico
I had two other wins outside my formula which were..
Texas -23.5 against Baylor
Temple -5.5 against Akron
Total Record for Last Week: 9-2
I like your ideas and very nice record last week! Also, thanks for having the BALLS to release your selections. It shows your not all talk by throwing out bogus numbers. I am not much of a trend guy and I'll tell you why. Eventually in a trend, the opposite happens and then it starts to trend the other way. It is nice when you are on the "winning trend" but it scares the shit out of me when I hear " X-team is 8-0 ATS when ......bla bla bla". I sincerely doubt that they will continue this trend. I like to look at the present team and present numbers but good luck with your selections and your formula. I really hope it makes you CASH IN!!!! 
Why the criticizism? pujols wrote:
"here are some early lines that have a ton of value and one should look into jumping on early before they go up."
He's suggesting we consider these picks -- thats all.
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Thanks for the info pujols.
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