Did this thread last year... fun to look back on what was right, wrong, and completely unexpected! All in all, barring a few real surprises, wasn't the worst projection in the world. Added some data this year and hopefully gives everyone some insight on what's happening here in the South!
Feel free to chime in! I may be brilliant or a complete idiot depending on the day of the week...
Let's start with my final standings projections and then I'll go team by team with RSW totals. Recruiting averages are from the 247 composite. Fun fact: 8 of 12 coaches in the SEC are on their 3rd season or less; only Kirby Smart, Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, and Mark Stoops have survived long enough to see a freshman graduate after 4 years.
SEC West
1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. Arkansas
4. Miss State
5. Ole Miss
6. LSU
7. Auburn
After Alabama, this is about as jumbled of a division I can find in all of football. A&M has the talent assembled and there is a huge "if not now, when?" attitude building in College Station. 3 through 7 could honestly finish in any order and I wouldn't be surprised at all (and it wouldn't overly shock me if Jimbo pulls another 8-4 year either). Lots of competitive football here, talent all around, but business as usual for Alabama heading to Atlanta.
SEC EAST
1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Kentucky
4. South Carolina
5. Florida
6. Missouri
7. Vanderbilt
Lots of improvement in the East and this side of the conference takes a step towards catching the West. But no one has assembled enough to catch UGA just yet. There are a few teams that will have a punchers chance of upsetting the Dawgs but in the end Georgia is headed to Atlanta for another battle with Alabama. Like the West, the middle of the pack could get jumbled here as well so the only thing I feel good about is Georgia at the top and Vandy at the bottom.
Did this thread last year... fun to look back on what was right, wrong, and completely unexpected! All in all, barring a few real surprises, wasn't the worst projection in the world. Added some data this year and hopefully gives everyone some insight on what's happening here in the South!
Feel free to chime in! I may be brilliant or a complete idiot depending on the day of the week...
Let's start with my final standings projections and then I'll go team by team with RSW totals. Recruiting averages are from the 247 composite. Fun fact: 8 of 12 coaches in the SEC are on their 3rd season or less; only Kirby Smart, Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, and Mark Stoops have survived long enough to see a freshman graduate after 4 years.
SEC West
1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. Arkansas
4. Miss State
5. Ole Miss
6. LSU
7. Auburn
After Alabama, this is about as jumbled of a division I can find in all of football. A&M has the talent assembled and there is a huge "if not now, when?" attitude building in College Station. 3 through 7 could honestly finish in any order and I wouldn't be surprised at all (and it wouldn't overly shock me if Jimbo pulls another 8-4 year either). Lots of competitive football here, talent all around, but business as usual for Alabama heading to Atlanta.
SEC EAST
1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Kentucky
4. South Carolina
5. Florida
6. Missouri
7. Vanderbilt
Lots of improvement in the East and this side of the conference takes a step towards catching the West. But no one has assembled enough to catch UGA just yet. There are a few teams that will have a punchers chance of upsetting the Dawgs but in the end Georgia is headed to Atlanta for another battle with Alabama. Like the West, the middle of the pack could get jumbled here as well so the only thing I feel good about is Georgia at the top and Vandy at the bottom.
Good stuff Dawg I think this is a pretty big year for the SEC.. There's not many that I don't expect to be at least somewhat improved relative to LY's squads if not a solid step up .. I think possibly Kentucky could take a step back with the D losses and OC that gave em a spark leaving TO THE RAMS!!! but still very solid, and Auburn could dip from LY if all the transfer activity doesn't fit .. Ole Miss' portal activity raises some question but not much tells me they'll be worse I'd say likely same or better... I don't even think UGA will take that big a step back they won't be as deep on D but there was alot to like behind the starters and guys ding'd up LY.. offense could also could be really dominant with maybe 3 of the top 5 TE's in CFB and Oscar looks good behind them .. plus those WR's aren't a young bunch anymore .. we'll see..
I think its likely improvements on everyone else .. Some we could say have to improve because they can't get worse (... they can't, right?.... lol) ... and a few of those and others could really bounce big if a few things come together .. And West could actually get Wild, that 6 game stretch for Bama will be a gauntlet esp the first 4 .. tail end looks really brutal @Tenn and vs Miss State .... and much warmer on A&M because of Max Johnson, he's so easy to overlook because LSU fell apart the last 2 years but I think he's got the right stuff and A&M is such a better situation for him .. can't proclaim they'll 'join the club' this year but I got some 30-1 action on them ..
Good stuff Dawg I think this is a pretty big year for the SEC.. There's not many that I don't expect to be at least somewhat improved relative to LY's squads if not a solid step up .. I think possibly Kentucky could take a step back with the D losses and OC that gave em a spark leaving TO THE RAMS!!! but still very solid, and Auburn could dip from LY if all the transfer activity doesn't fit .. Ole Miss' portal activity raises some question but not much tells me they'll be worse I'd say likely same or better... I don't even think UGA will take that big a step back they won't be as deep on D but there was alot to like behind the starters and guys ding'd up LY.. offense could also could be really dominant with maybe 3 of the top 5 TE's in CFB and Oscar looks good behind them .. plus those WR's aren't a young bunch anymore .. we'll see..
I think its likely improvements on everyone else .. Some we could say have to improve because they can't get worse (... they can't, right?.... lol) ... and a few of those and others could really bounce big if a few things come together .. And West could actually get Wild, that 6 game stretch for Bama will be a gauntlet esp the first 4 .. tail end looks really brutal @Tenn and vs Miss State .... and much warmer on A&M because of Max Johnson, he's so easy to overlook because LSU fell apart the last 2 years but I think he's got the right stuff and A&M is such a better situation for him .. can't proclaim they'll 'join the club' this year but I got some 30-1 action on them ..
Spot on Bridge, and it's somewhat of a tough year to predict the SEC in my opinion other than UGA and Bama. Could really have a log jam behind those 2 in both divisions.
I really thought A&M was going to be solidified as the clear #2 behind Bama in 2021 and give them a run. Now of course, they upset the Tide but the inconsistency was wild. Beating Colorado 10-7??? and then losing a couple stinkers to clearly worse Miss State and LSU. With this #1 recruiting class, their 4 year average is up above 5 which has always been a decent indicator of contenders in the CFP era.
Spot on Bridge, and it's somewhat of a tough year to predict the SEC in my opinion other than UGA and Bama. Could really have a log jam behind those 2 in both divisions.
I really thought A&M was going to be solidified as the clear #2 behind Bama in 2021 and give them a run. Now of course, they upset the Tide but the inconsistency was wild. Beating Colorado 10-7??? and then losing a couple stinkers to clearly worse Miss State and LSU. With this #1 recruiting class, their 4 year average is up above 5 which has always been a decent indicator of contenders in the CFP era.
@Bridge1 Spot on Bridge, and it's somewhat of a tough year to predict the SEC in my opinion other than UGA and Bama. Could really have a log jam behind those 2 in both divisions. I really thought A&M was going to be solidified as the clear #2 behind Bama in 2021 and give them a run. Now of course, they upset the Tide but the inconsistency was wild. Beating Colorado 10-7??? and then losing a couple stinkers to clearly worse Miss State and LSU. With this #1 recruiting class, their 4 year average is up above 5 which has always been a decent indicator of contenders in the CFP era.
@Bridge1 Spot on Bridge, and it's somewhat of a tough year to predict the SEC in my opinion other than UGA and Bama. Could really have a log jam behind those 2 in both divisions. I really thought A&M was going to be solidified as the clear #2 behind Bama in 2021 and give them a run. Now of course, they upset the Tide but the inconsistency was wild. Beating Colorado 10-7??? and then losing a couple stinkers to clearly worse Miss State and LSU. With this #1 recruiting class, their 4 year average is up above 5 which has always been a decent indicator of contenders in the CFP era.
TAMU is integrated a new DC...since Ecko took the Duke job...but he was replaced by DJ Durkin, which was a good hire...So that is something to consider early season...That plus, they will also integrate a new QB, since King got hurt so early, and his back transferred to Auburn...I think Jimbo should pick Max Johnson the tr from LSU as his day 1 QB...and a new star RB after Spiller moved on to the NFL...I think TAMU will be inconsistent early in the season, but by the end of October, they could be really good...
An early victim of the feud between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban, will be my Texas Longhorns...Alabama and Texas will play on Sep 10 for the first time since the BCS NC Game in the 2009 season...Texas has talent, but Bama a machine, a pissed off machine, playing in a fertile recruiting ground against the Flagship University of the state...And its a 11am start, not as if an evening game would be an advantage for Texas...but, Alabama will come to play, and Bijan Robinson will get some yards, but not too many...Bama will score early and often...The line is about 13 or 14...I normally try not to bet for against Texas as a homer, but this has the signature of a beat down...my prediction Alabama 38 Texas 13, with a Bama solid win and cover...
Glad to seen you like Tenn in the east...I like them in a revenge game in week 2 (yes Sep 10) against Pitt as a low single digit fave...
I look forward to interacting with you this season...
TAMU is integrated a new DC...since Ecko took the Duke job...but he was replaced by DJ Durkin, which was a good hire...So that is something to consider early season...That plus, they will also integrate a new QB, since King got hurt so early, and his back transferred to Auburn...I think Jimbo should pick Max Johnson the tr from LSU as his day 1 QB...and a new star RB after Spiller moved on to the NFL...I think TAMU will be inconsistent early in the season, but by the end of October, they could be really good...
An early victim of the feud between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban, will be my Texas Longhorns...Alabama and Texas will play on Sep 10 for the first time since the BCS NC Game in the 2009 season...Texas has talent, but Bama a machine, a pissed off machine, playing in a fertile recruiting ground against the Flagship University of the state...And its a 11am start, not as if an evening game would be an advantage for Texas...but, Alabama will come to play, and Bijan Robinson will get some yards, but not too many...Bama will score early and often...The line is about 13 or 14...I normally try not to bet for against Texas as a homer, but this has the signature of a beat down...my prediction Alabama 38 Texas 13, with a Bama solid win and cover...
Glad to seen you like Tenn in the east...I like them in a revenge game in week 2 (yes Sep 10) against Pitt as a low single digit fave...
I look forward to interacting with you this season...
I tend to agree A&M could start slow. We rave about that #1 recruiting class but gotta remember every single one of those kids are freshmen; still a young team but Jimbo has 4 straight years now of top 10 classes. Good thing for the Aggies is they start out with Sam Houston and App State before Miami comes to College Station. Really nice opening to the schedule where they get to build up against the competition before they get to the real grind in October.
That Bama defense is going to be nasty... I have a feeling it will be an old school Bama D and Sark is going to have a tough time getting much going, especially in the passing game with Anderson and company teeing off. That's not a bad score prediction, I would certainly defer to you when it comes to Texas. Barring injury, and maybe some questions at WR, 2022 Bama will be tough to handle for anyone.
I tend to agree A&M could start slow. We rave about that #1 recruiting class but gotta remember every single one of those kids are freshmen; still a young team but Jimbo has 4 straight years now of top 10 classes. Good thing for the Aggies is they start out with Sam Houston and App State before Miami comes to College Station. Really nice opening to the schedule where they get to build up against the competition before they get to the real grind in October.
That Bama defense is going to be nasty... I have a feeling it will be an old school Bama D and Sark is going to have a tough time getting much going, especially in the passing game with Anderson and company teeing off. That's not a bad score prediction, I would certainly defer to you when it comes to Texas. Barring injury, and maybe some questions at WR, 2022 Bama will be tough to handle for anyone.
Toughest Games: vs TX A&M, @ Tennessee, @ Ole Miss
What has Nick Saban done better than almost every coach in football? Adapt to the times... whether it was a high flying offense or now NIL and the transfer portal, he has been quick to master all aspects. There is a fair chance at the end of the year, we are debating which Alabama player is being drafted #1: Bryce Young or Will Anderson? Losing Evan Neal doesn't help an offensive line that wasn't near as strong as in year's past but 3 starters on the line return. Jahmyr Gibbs was an absolute stud at GT when he zero talent around him; Bama has been known to lean on a single RB in the past which could justify some outside flier love for Gibbs as a Heisman contender or Doak winner. WR is the biggest question for me on the offensive side of the ball; Jermaine Burton transferring in helps shore up an inexperienced room but he's more of a Metchie than a Williams. Can Bama be as explosive without a WR like Williams to really take the top off a defense? The 2022 Bama defense could be one of the best ever. One of, if not the, best pair of edge rushers in college football with Anderson and Byron Young, 3 really good corners including transfer Eli Ricks and Jordan Battle at safety. Henry T. at LB who I think is a little overhyped for what he does but he does provide senior leadership and experience.
Bama will be favored in every game and probably by double digits except for a couple. They have a really tough stretch of @ARK, vs A&M, and @Tenn all back to back so if there's a loss, it would likely come during that sequence. But IF they lose a game, I have a hard time seeing them lose another; a loss will be used to galvanize the team the remainder of the season. Texas will come out swinging and could be a really fun first half but they haven't built the depth that you need to topple Alabama. Lane will have a few tricks up his sleeve for Saban when they go to Ole Miss but they will have to play absolutely perfect to pull the upset.
Prediction: OVER at 12-0 or 11-1 at worst. Losing 1 game wouldn't be a total shocker but losing 2 certainly would.
*Also might be worth looking towards TT unders on the other side of the ball, and even full game unders as the Bama defense could be suffocating... especially early in the year.
Toughest Games: vs TX A&M, @ Tennessee, @ Ole Miss
What has Nick Saban done better than almost every coach in football? Adapt to the times... whether it was a high flying offense or now NIL and the transfer portal, he has been quick to master all aspects. There is a fair chance at the end of the year, we are debating which Alabama player is being drafted #1: Bryce Young or Will Anderson? Losing Evan Neal doesn't help an offensive line that wasn't near as strong as in year's past but 3 starters on the line return. Jahmyr Gibbs was an absolute stud at GT when he zero talent around him; Bama has been known to lean on a single RB in the past which could justify some outside flier love for Gibbs as a Heisman contender or Doak winner. WR is the biggest question for me on the offensive side of the ball; Jermaine Burton transferring in helps shore up an inexperienced room but he's more of a Metchie than a Williams. Can Bama be as explosive without a WR like Williams to really take the top off a defense? The 2022 Bama defense could be one of the best ever. One of, if not the, best pair of edge rushers in college football with Anderson and Byron Young, 3 really good corners including transfer Eli Ricks and Jordan Battle at safety. Henry T. at LB who I think is a little overhyped for what he does but he does provide senior leadership and experience.
Bama will be favored in every game and probably by double digits except for a couple. They have a really tough stretch of @ARK, vs A&M, and @Tenn all back to back so if there's a loss, it would likely come during that sequence. But IF they lose a game, I have a hard time seeing them lose another; a loss will be used to galvanize the team the remainder of the season. Texas will come out swinging and could be a really fun first half but they haven't built the depth that you need to topple Alabama. Lane will have a few tricks up his sleeve for Saban when they go to Ole Miss but they will have to play absolutely perfect to pull the upset.
Prediction: OVER at 12-0 or 11-1 at worst. Losing 1 game wouldn't be a total shocker but losing 2 certainly would.
*Also might be worth looking towards TT unders on the other side of the ball, and even full game unders as the Bama defense could be suffocating... especially early in the year.
Toughest Games: vs TX A&M, @ Tennessee, @ Ole Miss
What has Nick Saban done better than almost every coach in football? Adapt to the times... whether it was a high flying offense or now NIL and the transfer portal, he has been quick to master all aspects. There is a fair chance at the end of the year, we are debating which Alabama player is being drafted #1: Bryce Young or Will Anderson? Losing Evan Neal doesn't help an offensive line that wasn't near as strong as in year's past but 3 starters on the line return. Jahmyr Gibbs was an absolute stud at GT when he zero talent around him; Bama has been known to lean on a single RB in the past which could justify some outside flier love for Gibbs as a Heisman contender or Doak winner. WR is the biggest question for me on the offensive side of the ball; Jermaine Burton transferring in helps shore up an inexperienced room but he's more of a Metchie than a Williams. Can Bama be as explosive without a WR like Williams to really take the top off a defense? The 2022 Bama defense could be one of the best ever. One of, if not the, best pair of edge rushers in college football with Anderson and Byron Young, 3 really good corners including transfer Eli Ricks and Jordan Battle at safety. Henry T. at LB who I think is a little overhyped for what he does but he does provide senior leadership and experience.
Bama will be favored in every game and probably by double digits except for a couple. They have a really tough stretch of @ARK, vs A&M, and @Tenn all back to back so if there's a loss, it would likely come during that sequence. But IF they lose a game, I have a hard time seeing them lose another; a loss will be used to galvanize the team the remainder of the season. Texas will come out swinging and could be a really fun first half but they haven't built the depth that you need to topple Alabama. Lane will have a few tricks up his sleeve for Saban when they go to Ole Miss but they will have to play absolutely perfect to pull the upset.
Prediction: OVER at 12-0 or 11-1 at worst. Losing 1 game wouldn't be a total shocker but losing 2 certainly would.
*Also might be worth looking towards TT unders on the other side of the ball, and even full game unders as the Bama defense could be suffocating... especially early in the year.
Toughest Games: vs TX A&M, @ Tennessee, @ Ole Miss
What has Nick Saban done better than almost every coach in football? Adapt to the times... whether it was a high flying offense or now NIL and the transfer portal, he has been quick to master all aspects. There is a fair chance at the end of the year, we are debating which Alabama player is being drafted #1: Bryce Young or Will Anderson? Losing Evan Neal doesn't help an offensive line that wasn't near as strong as in year's past but 3 starters on the line return. Jahmyr Gibbs was an absolute stud at GT when he zero talent around him; Bama has been known to lean on a single RB in the past which could justify some outside flier love for Gibbs as a Heisman contender or Doak winner. WR is the biggest question for me on the offensive side of the ball; Jermaine Burton transferring in helps shore up an inexperienced room but he's more of a Metchie than a Williams. Can Bama be as explosive without a WR like Williams to really take the top off a defense? The 2022 Bama defense could be one of the best ever. One of, if not the, best pair of edge rushers in college football with Anderson and Byron Young, 3 really good corners including transfer Eli Ricks and Jordan Battle at safety. Henry T. at LB who I think is a little overhyped for what he does but he does provide senior leadership and experience.
Bama will be favored in every game and probably by double digits except for a couple. They have a really tough stretch of @ARK, vs A&M, and @Tenn all back to back so if there's a loss, it would likely come during that sequence. But IF they lose a game, I have a hard time seeing them lose another; a loss will be used to galvanize the team the remainder of the season. Texas will come out swinging and could be a really fun first half but they haven't built the depth that you need to topple Alabama. Lane will have a few tricks up his sleeve for Saban when they go to Ole Miss but they will have to play absolutely perfect to pull the upset.
Prediction: OVER at 12-0 or 11-1 at worst. Losing 1 game wouldn't be a total shocker but losing 2 certainly would.
*Also might be worth looking towards TT unders on the other side of the ball, and even full game unders as the Bama defense could be suffocating... especially early in the year.
Is there anyone happier than Bryan Harsin about the Saban/Jimbo NIL feud or conference expansion? Poor guy owned the news cycle when the offseason started, and a fair amount of it now seems like it was unsubstantiated. What is substantial is the fact that under Harsin, Auburn is now on its 3rd offensive coordinator and 2nd defensive coordinator in only 2 years. Derek Mason made a lateral move to be the DC at OKState and took a pay cut; that worries me that it would be a cultural issue and not a football one. Also gone is 3 year started Bo Nix which has left the QB race wide open. Tank Bigsby is back and will be running behind a decent OL but a ton of WR production is gone. I foresee teams crowding the box and forcing whichever QB ends up starting to beat them through the air. How Auburn performs this year will largely depend on a QB really stepping up.
As much turmoil as Auburn has experienced in the last 2 years, the cupboard isn't completely bare in terms of talent. They'll need some young guys to step up and replace some key positions such as Nix or Roger McCreary at corner to be competitive in the West but it's not impossible. The win total is set low which makes this one tricky. 3 really easy OOC games; assuming they beat Western KY, Mercer, and San Jose, they need to get 3 more out of Penn St, Missouri, LSU, @Ole Miss, @Miss St, and Arkansas. Auburn beats Mizzou, possibly Penn St or LSU. I think LSU may surprise some people in 2022; Brian Kelly inherits some really good recruiting classes. And yes Penn St was 7-6 last year but all losses during the regular season were single digits.
Prediction: lean towards the UNDER at 5-7, maybe as bad as 4-8 if they can't find some explosive combos at QB/WR. Just not sure Harsin is the answer at Auburn, he could really use a .500 or better season to secure his job.
I look for the offense to start slow but they get 2 cupcakes to start the season. Looking ahead to the Under for the Penn St. game and maybe for the year as the Tigers will lean heavily on the run game without a proven passing attack.
Is there anyone happier than Bryan Harsin about the Saban/Jimbo NIL feud or conference expansion? Poor guy owned the news cycle when the offseason started, and a fair amount of it now seems like it was unsubstantiated. What is substantial is the fact that under Harsin, Auburn is now on its 3rd offensive coordinator and 2nd defensive coordinator in only 2 years. Derek Mason made a lateral move to be the DC at OKState and took a pay cut; that worries me that it would be a cultural issue and not a football one. Also gone is 3 year started Bo Nix which has left the QB race wide open. Tank Bigsby is back and will be running behind a decent OL but a ton of WR production is gone. I foresee teams crowding the box and forcing whichever QB ends up starting to beat them through the air. How Auburn performs this year will largely depend on a QB really stepping up.
As much turmoil as Auburn has experienced in the last 2 years, the cupboard isn't completely bare in terms of talent. They'll need some young guys to step up and replace some key positions such as Nix or Roger McCreary at corner to be competitive in the West but it's not impossible. The win total is set low which makes this one tricky. 3 really easy OOC games; assuming they beat Western KY, Mercer, and San Jose, they need to get 3 more out of Penn St, Missouri, LSU, @Ole Miss, @Miss St, and Arkansas. Auburn beats Mizzou, possibly Penn St or LSU. I think LSU may surprise some people in 2022; Brian Kelly inherits some really good recruiting classes. And yes Penn St was 7-6 last year but all losses during the regular season were single digits.
Prediction: lean towards the UNDER at 5-7, maybe as bad as 4-8 if they can't find some explosive combos at QB/WR. Just not sure Harsin is the answer at Auburn, he could really use a .500 or better season to secure his job.
I look for the offense to start slow but they get 2 cupcakes to start the season. Looking ahead to the Under for the Penn St. game and maybe for the year as the Tigers will lean heavily on the run game without a proven passing attack.
I think they have 3 locks but I tend to agree. They should beat New Mexico St, Abilene Christian, and Vanderbilt. They are better than La Tech, it's at home and at night... "should" be their 4th win but La Tech will be fired up as well so I lean towards making that a toss-up game. Say they win those 4, their RSW total is set at 5.5 right now; I don't see them being favored in any of the other games. @KSU, @SC, or @UF might be their best chances to pull an upset but they'll have to win 2. Mizzou is a 3-9 floor with a 5-7 ceiling to me and I will on them to go under 5.5 for sure.
I think they have 3 locks but I tend to agree. They should beat New Mexico St, Abilene Christian, and Vanderbilt. They are better than La Tech, it's at home and at night... "should" be their 4th win but La Tech will be fired up as well so I lean towards making that a toss-up game. Say they win those 4, their RSW total is set at 5.5 right now; I don't see them being favored in any of the other games. @KSU, @SC, or @UF might be their best chances to pull an upset but they'll have to win 2. Mizzou is a 3-9 floor with a 5-7 ceiling to me and I will on them to go under 5.5 for sure.
I mostly agree in the West, could be an absolute log jam after Bama but we're really far apart on the East. Except I think Arkansas wins all of their OOC games but falls to A&M and Bama. Definitely don't have Ole Miss finishing last but that could all come down to common opponents.
Tennessee's offense will always give them a puncher's chance and they'll probably average 42-45 per game... problem is they will give up the same amount or more to anyone with a pulse on offense. UT also has a tough road slate travelling to LSU, UGA, SC, and Pitt; none of those games will be easy. I've got UT more like 9-3, possibly 10-2, with a worst case floor of 8-4 but definitely OVER their 7.5. Problem is the over is now juiced big time in most places... And they match up terribly with UGA. UT is weak at DT and Corner and what does UGA like to do? Pound the middle and get athletes on the edge with screens. Will be an exciting game in Athens but UGA prevails because they'll get a few stops and the UT defense won't.
I mostly agree in the West, could be an absolute log jam after Bama but we're really far apart on the East. Except I think Arkansas wins all of their OOC games but falls to A&M and Bama. Definitely don't have Ole Miss finishing last but that could all come down to common opponents.
Tennessee's offense will always give them a puncher's chance and they'll probably average 42-45 per game... problem is they will give up the same amount or more to anyone with a pulse on offense. UT also has a tough road slate travelling to LSU, UGA, SC, and Pitt; none of those games will be easy. I've got UT more like 9-3, possibly 10-2, with a worst case floor of 8-4 but definitely OVER their 7.5. Problem is the over is now juiced big time in most places... And they match up terribly with UGA. UT is weak at DT and Corner and what does UGA like to do? Pound the middle and get athletes on the edge with screens. Will be an exciting game in Athens but UGA prevails because they'll get a few stops and the UT defense won't.
I completely agree about the West. It gets to a point where I’m backing into picking single toss up games based on records I think are more likely than not. East, I really don’t believe TN will finish 11-1 but I’m selling UGA. Whether justified or not, I really don’t know if it will make a material impact, I can’t help but be amazed with graduating 5 first round players on Defense. It’s remarkable, I don’t think that will ever be topped or even matched.
I completely agree about the West. It gets to a point where I’m backing into picking single toss up games based on records I think are more likely than not. East, I really don’t believe TN will finish 11-1 but I’m selling UGA. Whether justified or not, I really don’t know if it will make a material impact, I can’t help but be amazed with graduating 5 first round players on Defense. It’s remarkable, I don’t think that will ever be topped or even matched.
in your honest opinion, Whaddya think of Vanderbilt over 2.5 RSW at +125? Schedule is kind, odds are giving..I think they smack Hawai’i week 1 and find 2 more wins minimum.
in your honest opinion, Whaddya think of Vanderbilt over 2.5 RSW at +125? Schedule is kind, odds are giving..I think they smack Hawai’i week 1 and find 2 more wins minimum.
They, or anyone, may not top the 5 first round defenders again but it's wild to think they could have another great year sending defenders to the draft. Barring injury of course, Jalen Carter and Kelee Ringo will be 1st round locks. Nolan Smith and Robert Beal are 2 more that are likely to go high as well, either could sneak into the 1st round with a productive year but Nolan will be a combine monster. The wildcards are Chris Smith and Tykee Smith at the safety spots or maybe a Tramel Walthour makes a big splash as another DL. Maybe not first rounders but I do predict UGA will have at least 5 defenders go in the 1st and 2nd rounds again this year.
They, or anyone, may not top the 5 first round defenders again but it's wild to think they could have another great year sending defenders to the draft. Barring injury of course, Jalen Carter and Kelee Ringo will be 1st round locks. Nolan Smith and Robert Beal are 2 more that are likely to go high as well, either could sneak into the 1st round with a productive year but Nolan will be a combine monster. The wildcards are Chris Smith and Tykee Smith at the safety spots or maybe a Tramel Walthour makes a big splash as another DL. Maybe not first rounders but I do predict UGA will have at least 5 defenders go in the 1st and 2nd rounds again this year.
I think Tennessee could get us gamblers into a bit of trouble this year .. They are no doubt a HUGE fan fav coming into this year and everyone knows the O should be awesome .. but just looking at LY we see the run game was really the backbone of the offense but just cratered vs the very best defenses LY UGA and Bama .. and while the offense was definitely some level solid to EPIC vs Ole Miss, Kentucky, Florida, Pitt and Purdue all of their offenses just plowed thru the Vols defense ... Purdue w no run game of any kind, possibly the worst in all of CFB, just tossed bomb after bomb downfield until they won ..
SP+ has the Vols and A&M as a clear 2nd tier of the SEC at +19 or about 8/9 pts behind UGA/Bama, 3-5 pts ahead of the bulk of others .. Vols offense projects to improve to 4th in CFB, actually a huge move from the 8th best LY .. but they also project to have the 43rd ranked D, 3rd worst in the SEC ... pretty glaring deficiency especially in a conf where almost everyone has a top 30 defense or much better and play especially good run D .. SP+ has Vols w pretty high 68% ret pro on D and Steele does confirm that w lotta guys back .. but look at Steele's PS#'s in the D depth chart, a few high rated guys mostly ones from LY but pretty sparse and really dies off in the 2-deep .. phil only has 2 UT D guys in his 4 deep all con chart and unit rank in conf DL 6th, LB 9th, DB's 10th .. or just flip thru rest of the SEC quick and UT's D is a real outlier in terms of recruiting talent ..
Anyway it seems like books are more than ready to line the Vols using the rosiest of projections for us (like every year) and think very unlikely they'll have much value being significantly underrated unless there's just a massive step up on their defense .. also note its easy for the models to get confused how good a D is, opponent mistakes can make them look really good for a short while .... Just my word to the wise, maybe check out that Pitt game for real for sure legit improvement on D .. if not there I'd def look for spots to fade em this year ..
I think Tennessee could get us gamblers into a bit of trouble this year .. They are no doubt a HUGE fan fav coming into this year and everyone knows the O should be awesome .. but just looking at LY we see the run game was really the backbone of the offense but just cratered vs the very best defenses LY UGA and Bama .. and while the offense was definitely some level solid to EPIC vs Ole Miss, Kentucky, Florida, Pitt and Purdue all of their offenses just plowed thru the Vols defense ... Purdue w no run game of any kind, possibly the worst in all of CFB, just tossed bomb after bomb downfield until they won ..
SP+ has the Vols and A&M as a clear 2nd tier of the SEC at +19 or about 8/9 pts behind UGA/Bama, 3-5 pts ahead of the bulk of others .. Vols offense projects to improve to 4th in CFB, actually a huge move from the 8th best LY .. but they also project to have the 43rd ranked D, 3rd worst in the SEC ... pretty glaring deficiency especially in a conf where almost everyone has a top 30 defense or much better and play especially good run D .. SP+ has Vols w pretty high 68% ret pro on D and Steele does confirm that w lotta guys back .. but look at Steele's PS#'s in the D depth chart, a few high rated guys mostly ones from LY but pretty sparse and really dies off in the 2-deep .. phil only has 2 UT D guys in his 4 deep all con chart and unit rank in conf DL 6th, LB 9th, DB's 10th .. or just flip thru rest of the SEC quick and UT's D is a real outlier in terms of recruiting talent ..
Anyway it seems like books are more than ready to line the Vols using the rosiest of projections for us (like every year) and think very unlikely they'll have much value being significantly underrated unless there's just a massive step up on their defense .. also note its easy for the models to get confused how good a D is, opponent mistakes can make them look really good for a short while .... Just my word to the wise, maybe check out that Pitt game for real for sure legit improvement on D .. if not there I'd def look for spots to fade em this year ..
Clark Lea is fired up about coaching this team for sure. Basically you're asking can Vandy beat Hawaii, Elon, and Northern Illinois or pull a shocker somewhere else in the schedule? It's honestly really hard to say; they could start 2-0 and then lose the last 10. 2.5 is a low total but I don't have the faith that Vandy can win @NIU. 2 wins (and Hawaii is a borderline toss-up), 1 toss-up, and 9 losses. I would prefer to feel more comfortable before placing a RSW on Vandy. Slight lean towards the under if I had a gun to my head.
Clark Lea is fired up about coaching this team for sure. Basically you're asking can Vandy beat Hawaii, Elon, and Northern Illinois or pull a shocker somewhere else in the schedule? It's honestly really hard to say; they could start 2-0 and then lose the last 10. 2.5 is a low total but I don't have the faith that Vandy can win @NIU. 2 wins (and Hawaii is a borderline toss-up), 1 toss-up, and 9 losses. I would prefer to feel more comfortable before placing a RSW on Vandy. Slight lean towards the under if I had a gun to my head.
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