Posted:
#1
YTD | 11-9-1 +5.8 UNITS
Last weekend was just the turn around going perfect on the sheet. Consistancy is really what its all about and after starting slow things are starting to pick up. These two games jumped off the sheet for me.
[to win S=1unit, M=2units, L=3units, XL=5units]
L: TEXAS -3
I'm a SEC/Pac10 bettor so my knowledge of the Big 12 is very limited but reading into the numbers, Texas has owned OU in 3 of the last 4 years SU. Texas has won 4 straight ATS. All the margin of victory is much larger than 3 at games end, and as a matter of fact, only once in the past 10 years has the game been less than double digits. OU has not been the same team this year in my mind, yes Bradford was out and the BYU came could have been different if he played but Landry Jones has shown to be a more than servicable QB in waiting. Even if Bradford started against Miami, I believe the outcome would have been the same.
Texas on the other hand has shown at times they aren't fully running correctly with the Wyoming game and Colorado game before turning it on in the 2nd half. They can not do this against OU, but I doubt they will be playing at half speed in the Red River Shootout. Texas is on a mission to go to the NC with last years outcome, I just don't see anyone in the Big 12 to derail them. The weapons on the edge for Texas will evitably be the difference, while OU has lost their weapons Broyles and Grisham.
L: ARKANSAS +24
The hamstring injury of Arky's RB Smith does bother me and hold me from making this a XL play, but lets be real 24 points in the SEC against a upcoming team who has been the best offensive team that UF has played all season! No way, even look at last year and how Arkansas hung in there up til the 4th when the Gators broke for two huge runs for TDs. Arkansas was very much in that game with a offense who had been struggling with Petrino's system. Mallet is the best SEC pure QB. Snead got all the buzz but look how poorly he has played all season, INT every other series.
UF will not make their living on dive plays, the Gators win games and are a threat with Tebow running 100%, even though he was cleared to play against LSU, you saw on the sideline everytime they ran the dive, Urban was coaching on his heels. Everyone on the team knows that speedsters don't play the short yardage game, and without Tebow being a threat the option hurts as well.
Arkansas, is the most competitive team UF plays all regular season, possibly Ole Miss type of score from LY.
GL
0
L: ARKANSAS +24
XL 2H FLORIDA -13.5
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