NCAAF Week 5

YTD: 23-19

Last week was a decent week as I came out ahead, but undisciplined, last minute additions with games I wasn't even considering during the week prevented a big week.  Lesson learned, time to move on to a card that have  plenty of dogs and plays that stick out.

Stanford +7

This has nothing to do with what Stanford did to ND, but more to do with how I don't believe the Ducks as the ass whooping they've been delivering.  LW I was on ASU and really thought they were going to win straight up.  ASU at the time was the toughest test the Ducks were to have faced all year after beating up two pasties and Tenn, a team that went into 2OT at home to UAB.  Oregon got the DD win and the avg person would look at that score and say to themselves, 'Oregon rolled as usual."  But that is the furthest from the truth.  ASU dominated that game...they had close to 200 more yards, 10 more 1st downs, dominated TOP, but had 7 TO to prevent the win.  Yes, 7 TO and they win by a mere 11 pts.  Yet again, they will face their stiffest test of the season and again I believe the line is inflated and it actually went up from an opening of 5.  Now they face a more physical team, has a better defense, overall better offense, and a better QB who does not turn the ball over.  However, the reason I think Sanford wins or has a great shot at winning is because they control the clock.  They posses the ball more than 33 minutes a game (12th). I know Oregon is seeking revenge and they are at home, but I believe Stanford is the better team and Stanford has a great shot at winning SU.

Arizona State +4

I've backed the Sun Devils the past two weeks against Wisconsin and Oregon as they have been undervalued and I believe they are again even at Corvallis.  It may sound like I have something against Oregon teams, but I too believe this Oregon State team is not very good and were fortunate that both TCU and Boise hurt themselves with TO and costly penalties or both games could have been blown outs as they were dominated in each.  Oregon State has a below avg defense, have a difficult time moving the ball via air, which makes it difficult for them to run.  I believe Oregon State will struggle to slow down the ASU offense and the ASU defense, which held Oregon to 145 yards rushing will shut down Quizz and force Oregon St to utilize the pass which they are terrible at.

Ohio State -18

I love betting against one diminsional teams when the one thing the team is good at the opposing team is gret against.  And that is what we have here.  Illinois is one dimensional as all they can do is run but unfortunately for them, Ohio State is one of the best against the run.  Scheelhasse is not a passing threat so I don't how they will score.  I think 30 pts is good enough for Ohio St to get the cover...I'll be surprised if the Buckeyes are held under 30.

That's it for now...more to come...

Good Luck all