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NCAAF Week 5

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Posted: #26
nice angles....

Ducks no doubt one of nation's most flawed teams ....shredded by Vols when they chose to run (Vols out gained by UAB 544 to 287) ....gashed for almost 600 by Devils......Stanford great value at 7
Beavs have looked bad in every game.......James Rodgers off concussion so is ?????

Buckeyes an early Xmas gift at 18.....should be 25 or more....OSU is actually better on the road (18-5 ATS)....best of luck 
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Posted: #27

Ohio State -18

I love betting against one diminsional teams when the one thing the team is good at the opposing team is gret against.  And that is what we have here.  Illinois is one dimensional as all they can do is run but unfortunately for them, Ohio State is one of the best against the run.  Scheelhasse is not a passing threat so I don't how they will score.  I think 30 pts is good enough for Ohio St to get the cover...I'll be surprised if the Buckeyes are held under 30.

 

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Posted: #28
Any thoughts on Miami/Clemson and FSU/OKL? I like Miami but think QB throws to many picks on the road. I might Tease Clemson +9.5 and OSU -12 . I can't get a solid read on OKL at home vs FSU.
 
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Posted: #29
Good Luck Cal
 
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Posted: #30
like the sun devils however was hoping for TD+ not likely, BOL this week cal
 
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Posted: #31
Virginia +?

I'm sure FSU will be a popular pick, so I'm going to wait until kick off to lock this in.  So far I'm 3-0 on FSU games.  Took the over against Oklahoma and backed them the last two weeks.  In their last two weeks,FSU has taken advantage of weak offensive ball clubs that have a difficult time stopping the run.  This week they go up against an interesting Cavalier team that has a balance offense and a defense that will put up a fight.  There is not much to go off since they have played two FCS opponents and a lost at USC.  However, they did what they were supposed to do against the FCS opponents, smack them, in a year when FCS teams have had several SU wins and or close calls.  And the loss against USC was a well played defensive game.  They impressed me in that game despite the loss.  After a game in which Matt Barkley and the Trojan offense put up nearly 50 pts and over 500 yards of offense, the Cavalier defense humbled cutting that total down by over
200 yds and allowing only 17 pts.  I think we see a similar game in which both teams struggle to score, hence under is a very strong bet as well.
 
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Posted: #32
Central Michigan -17

I love this match-up for CMU.  If CMU has a weakness it is their pass defense, however, fortunately for them, they go up against one of the weakest pass offenses in football.  And on the flip side, CMU is stout against the run.  Last week I faded Ball State against Iowa for this same reason and now I get the same situation with a pretty good CMU team, coming off a loss, but with a spread of 11 pts less!  Love it.  And this is the best pass offense Ball State will face thus far which is terrible news for a club that allows 8.1 yards per attempt (105) and over 223 per game (74).  CMU does struggle to run, probably because they emphasize the pass, but I think things will be easier to come by against a weak Ball State run defense (89th) that allows 4.8 (101) a carry.  Ball State should struggle to score, yet again, and they should have difficulty stopping CMU on offense.  I don't see how this isn't a blow out.
 
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Posted: #33
Florida International +?

Also going to lock this in before kick off.  FIU is 0-3 but they have played against some decent teams and proved to be a feisty group.  Each of their losses were very close games, including LW against Maryland despite the score.  Now they go up against a Pitt team and are getting 19 pts at the moment against a team that is not very explosive on offense.  I don't know what's going on with Dion Lewis but I sure hope he doesn't wake up all a sudden.  I know Pitt has faced two good defenses in Utah and Miami so that has something to do with it, but even against their one cupcake...Lewis nor Pitt didn't have an impressive showing and were only able to put up 38 pts.  I think it will take 40+ pts to cover this number against FIU because I can see them moving the ball through the air against a suspect PIT pass defense.
 
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Posted: #34
gl calbear
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

Love the Cardinal play, CalBear and leaning hard on the other two.  Think that your other leans are probably, overall your best plays.  For sure going to wait for LUDawg on the ECU game , but thinking both Nevada and Boise St are going to play lights out until they meet on that collision course at the end of the year.  Already marked that one down, and after the way Nevada core group of vets hung in against Broncos last year on the "Blue Turf" think they get over the hump this year and steal the Broncos thunder in that game. Will be following this thread , as usual, to get your thoughts on those last eight leans.   BOL this week.                                                                                                                                                                                                        

I'm pretty sure I'll be adding Boise.  I notice the East Carolina line is up to +13...they may struggle to get anything thru the air vs UNC...still looking it over but it's looking less of a play.  GL 222
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by TRoe15:



Hawks by 14-17, but I wouldn't play it at 7.5. I played it at -3 on a GOY line before the season, and am extremely happy with it. Better games out there at the current price though.



I may take a pass on this game.  Thx for the reply.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by 44-dimes:

Like the Sun Devils Couldn't agree more. Offense is under rated and they have electrifying speed in the return game. I see the line is down to 3.5. Sharpies grabbed this early.

keep rolling CB

Love it.  GL buddy.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by cherokee10:

 Cal

Love the OSU play, I'll be surprised if this stays under 3 td's by gametime....Bucks should continue to put up points and hold Illinois to a minimum, this one seems too easy...but I'm sure they'll find a way to keep it closer than it should...let's hope not.

 


I'm surprised the line has gone down...if it gets any lower, I'll be pounding it hard. GL Cherokee
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

As much as I love the ohio state pick, I can't help but to think that the game will be really one sided, but in the 4th, Ohio state is going to take a snooze and somehow the buckeyes will cover. I got screwed but this many times and I sure hope it doesn't happen to you. BOL

I've been getting moosed a lot so your assessment may be reality.  Hope not, GL to you.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by bracks:

dam

I have the exact opposite feel on the 1st 2 games. I think that Stan line is made because of their win over a now "good"UCLA team. It wont be a night game in Eugene, but the fans will be up all day since Game Day should be there. Ore has gotten behind twice the past 2 weeks and it doesnt seem to be a problem.

In Ore St- I actually picked they to win the P-10 to start the yr. They have covered twice vs. top 5 teams and I dont get this ASU love. They held Wiscky, OK. Just dont see it.

But, I have barely been over .500, so, you are probably right

GL Cal

I'm right there with you, barely over .500.  Playing in the state of Oregon is no easy task so that is a big advantage for each Oregon school.  We'll see.  GL
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by JakeLake720:

Like the plays, taking the better quarterback in Luck with the points...agree Oregon has gotten fat on cupcakes...

Also, it will take the Illinois freshman quarterback a few years to develop any semblance of a passing attack...OSU should have no problem crashing down on the qb....

Best of luck...

Exactly my thought process...not sure why the line went down, but I'm going to pound it if it gets below 17.
 
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Posted: #42
Purdue

Rara

Tiasman- Lets cash that ticket buddy

Boom- Thx and GL to your Tigers

ray,ray - I like when we're on the same side. 

amd- You can get 17 now.  I think it is a winner.  GL

BZ 

People's champ- GL to you.

bw-

ellego

cover-It's a road game against a conference foe is all I can think of.  But I'm not going to over think.  I just cap the games and worry less about who the public is on.  GL

Bookie- I've thought that the last couple weeks, they proved me wrong against Tenn, but Tenn is pretty bad.  And last week they were fortunate to escape with a victory.  Thx and BOL also

Cover-

richie- My initial lean was Clemson but as I dug into the game, I'm actually liking Miami more and more.  The Tiger defense is suspect and Jacory could have a big game.  Also, the Tigers are a good running team and Miami has been pretty solid against the run.  I think Clemson may have a tough time scoring unless they can show any ability to pass.  GL on your play.

Orange- Thx & GL also.

D-Town- Your a legend

Nos- I'd back the truck up if they were getting 7.  I really think they win so I'll take whatever is given. GL

Thx shakey, GL


 
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Posted: #43
GL this Saturday CalBear.   Like the plays.  
 
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Posted: #44
 
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Posted: #45

Like the Ohio State play a lot!

I think you're on the right side with Stanford too. GL!

 
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Posted: #46
HAVE OHIO ST FOR 1 QT..
 
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Posted: #47
BOL bro... 
 
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Posted: #48
great analysis and like the card a lot - good luck
 
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Posted: #49
GL this week Calbear!    
 
 
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