Alright guys, we got a lot of work to do in NCAAF. We are getting things rolling in NFL going 23-12-1, but we are now only 30-24-1 in NCAAF. Looking to bounce back this week! Good Luck Everyone!
4:30pm PST
Coastal Carolina @ App St.
App St +5 -110 <1 unit>
We were reviewing this matchup and think there is value in taking the points with App St. As you recall, last time App St. was playing they got demolished by Lafayette. That was Lafayette's revenge superbowl. They almost lost to South Alabama looking ahead to that game. Now, recency bias kicks in, and Coastal is now a 5 point fav. Remember, this team was ranked and only favored by 3 at home vs App st last year. Yes they won and covered, but now App St has revenge on their minds and they were looking ahead on their own, which showed last week.
We have nothing against Coastal Carolina and think they are a pretty sound team that runs the ball and plays good defense, but here’s the thing, their SOS skews their stats big time. Sure, this team has been holding teams to 15-PPG, but they haven’t had any competition. So far this season Coastal Carolina has been double digit favorites in every game and now they are only laying 4.5 to 5 points. Both of these teams rank in the top-3 in the Sun Belt, but we found it interesting that the #14 team was such a slight favorite to a team that just got blown the F out last week in an isolated game.
This game is pretty situational for us. You have a team off a bye that saw App St getting destroyed, which only boosts their confidence right? It can also create some slacking at practice and off the field. App St being embarrassed last week while looking ahead, we believe we will see everything they got tonight. Their RB’s are back in the game and we can’t forget that this offense was ranked in the top-30 both in passing and rushing before losing to Lafayette. App St is averaging 177.3 rushing yards a game and was playing from behind last week, so thats why they were held to only 76 yards. Tonight we believe they will establish the run, control the game with a squad that has a lot of seniors and aren’t going to roll over at home after getting smacked around in their last game. App St has lost only five games at home since 2015, if they can limit big plays from Coastal Carolina today, they will cover. LETS GO! Good Luck!
Alright guys, we got a lot of work to do in NCAAF. We are getting things rolling in NFL going 23-12-1, but we are now only 30-24-1 in NCAAF. Looking to bounce back this week! Good Luck Everyone!
4:30pm PST
Coastal Carolina @ App St.
App St +5 -110 <1 unit>
We were reviewing this matchup and think there is value in taking the points with App St. As you recall, last time App St. was playing they got demolished by Lafayette. That was Lafayette's revenge superbowl. They almost lost to South Alabama looking ahead to that game. Now, recency bias kicks in, and Coastal is now a 5 point fav. Remember, this team was ranked and only favored by 3 at home vs App st last year. Yes they won and covered, but now App St has revenge on their minds and they were looking ahead on their own, which showed last week.
We have nothing against Coastal Carolina and think they are a pretty sound team that runs the ball and plays good defense, but here’s the thing, their SOS skews their stats big time. Sure, this team has been holding teams to 15-PPG, but they haven’t had any competition. So far this season Coastal Carolina has been double digit favorites in every game and now they are only laying 4.5 to 5 points. Both of these teams rank in the top-3 in the Sun Belt, but we found it interesting that the #14 team was such a slight favorite to a team that just got blown the F out last week in an isolated game.
This game is pretty situational for us. You have a team off a bye that saw App St getting destroyed, which only boosts their confidence right? It can also create some slacking at practice and off the field. App St being embarrassed last week while looking ahead, we believe we will see everything they got tonight. Their RB’s are back in the game and we can’t forget that this offense was ranked in the top-30 both in passing and rushing before losing to Lafayette. App St is averaging 177.3 rushing yards a game and was playing from behind last week, so thats why they were held to only 76 yards. Tonight we believe they will establish the run, control the game with a squad that has a lot of seniors and aren’t going to roll over at home after getting smacked around in their last game. App St has lost only five games at home since 2015, if they can limit big plays from Coastal Carolina today, they will cover. LETS GO! Good Luck!
4:30pm PST Lafayette @ Arkansas St Arkansas St +18 -110 <1 unit>
Lafayette is off a Tuesday game where they trounced APP St on National TV. That was their superbowl revenge game, and you know that this past week, their mindset is going to be A LOT different than it was being a 4.5 point dog to an 18 point favorite. Arkansas St. has had 2 weeks to prepare here and we think 18 points is just too many.
Lets not forget that Lafayette only beat South Alabama by 2 on the road as 12 point favs and beat Georgia Southern by 8 as 14.5 point favs. They haven't been great on the road, and after this game, they are at home again until November 13. These guys are getting ready for some home cooking. Arkansas St took a beating Oct 7th to Coastal Carolina, losing 52-20. They were 20.5 point dogs in that game, and now they are getting 18 vs Lafayette? That was a ranked Coastal Carolina we are talking about.
App St was looking ahead on their own to Coastal Carolina, and we all saw what happened. Arkansas St put up 33 against G Southern, the same team Lafayette put up 28 on. They also scored 34 and 50 against Tulsa and Memphis. With 2 weeks to prep, we don't think Lafayette will hold them to less than 21 tonight, which helps get this covered.
Lafayette is known for their rush defense, and they caught App St off guard as their offense was looking to establish the run. Ark St is not a run first team, as they are the #1 passing offense in the sun belt. This TOTAL is very high and that is because they project scoring to take place. The magic number for us today is around 24-points. We believe Ark St. can put up 24+ points, so it means they only don’t cover ATS if Lafayette goes off for more than 42-points. We dug up into the record archives and it’s worth pointing out that Lafayette has only defeated Arkansas St. by 18 or more points one time in their last 23-games played and that was back in 1995. The extra time to prepare and Arkansas’ St’s aggressive pass-heavy offense will keep them in this game to cover ATS. Let’s Go!
4:30pm PST Lafayette @ Arkansas St Arkansas St +18 -110 <1 unit>
Lafayette is off a Tuesday game where they trounced APP St on National TV. That was their superbowl revenge game, and you know that this past week, their mindset is going to be A LOT different than it was being a 4.5 point dog to an 18 point favorite. Arkansas St. has had 2 weeks to prepare here and we think 18 points is just too many.
Lets not forget that Lafayette only beat South Alabama by 2 on the road as 12 point favs and beat Georgia Southern by 8 as 14.5 point favs. They haven't been great on the road, and after this game, they are at home again until November 13. These guys are getting ready for some home cooking. Arkansas St took a beating Oct 7th to Coastal Carolina, losing 52-20. They were 20.5 point dogs in that game, and now they are getting 18 vs Lafayette? That was a ranked Coastal Carolina we are talking about.
App St was looking ahead on their own to Coastal Carolina, and we all saw what happened. Arkansas St put up 33 against G Southern, the same team Lafayette put up 28 on. They also scored 34 and 50 against Tulsa and Memphis. With 2 weeks to prep, we don't think Lafayette will hold them to less than 21 tonight, which helps get this covered.
Lafayette is known for their rush defense, and they caught App St off guard as their offense was looking to establish the run. Ark St is not a run first team, as they are the #1 passing offense in the sun belt. This TOTAL is very high and that is because they project scoring to take place. The magic number for us today is around 24-points. We believe Ark St. can put up 24+ points, so it means they only don’t cover ATS if Lafayette goes off for more than 42-points. We dug up into the record archives and it’s worth pointing out that Lafayette has only defeated Arkansas St. by 18 or more points one time in their last 23-games played and that was back in 1995. The extra time to prepare and Arkansas’ St’s aggressive pass-heavy offense will keep them in this game to cover ATS. Let’s Go!
8:00pm PST San Jose St. @ UNLV UNLV +5.5 -110 <1 unit>
Mountain West Time! We have the late night game on deck, and at first look we couldn’t believe we were going to advise BOOM NATION to take a team that has lost 12-games in a row and hasn’t recorded a win since 2019, but we have reason to believe this is a game that UNLV can not only cover in, but could even pull out the outright win at Allegiant Stadium! Let’s dive in.
UNLV has lost 12-straight, but they have been playing great ball when it comes to covering ATS, going 4-1-1 this season. IT DOESN’T MATTER IF YOU WIN OR LOSE, BUT WHETHER OR NOT YOU COVER THE SPREAD TO US! This San Jose St squad did have SDSU on upset alert last week, scaring the ranked team, but they still lost. They played their best ball last week, but before that they have been struggling all year. San Jose St has now dropped their last 2-games and have lost 3 of their last 4. San Jose St’s defense has been alright, but their offense has only been averaging 19.4-PPG. This line is suggesting these teams are closely matched, even though UNLV is 0-6. It's interesting how UNLV is on average allowing 35-PPG, but this total is set at 44. UNLV has been in some heart breakers and this is a game they will be playing hard to win. To boot, Nick Starkle is questionable and likely not going to be able to go tonight for SJSU.
UNLV needs 17-pts tonight to cover in our eyes. The home team has won in this series for the last 5-years and they should be fired up to be on National TV, you know they dont get a chance to be on the spotlight often. We believe the motivation is on UNLV being hungry for a win, vs a team just off a disappointing loss in OT. We aren't shocked if the 12-game losing streak ends tonight, but we are confident in this ATS cover. Good luck.
8:00pm PST San Jose St. @ UNLV UNLV +5.5 -110 <1 unit>
Mountain West Time! We have the late night game on deck, and at first look we couldn’t believe we were going to advise BOOM NATION to take a team that has lost 12-games in a row and hasn’t recorded a win since 2019, but we have reason to believe this is a game that UNLV can not only cover in, but could even pull out the outright win at Allegiant Stadium! Let’s dive in.
UNLV has lost 12-straight, but they have been playing great ball when it comes to covering ATS, going 4-1-1 this season. IT DOESN’T MATTER IF YOU WIN OR LOSE, BUT WHETHER OR NOT YOU COVER THE SPREAD TO US! This San Jose St squad did have SDSU on upset alert last week, scaring the ranked team, but they still lost. They played their best ball last week, but before that they have been struggling all year. San Jose St has now dropped their last 2-games and have lost 3 of their last 4. San Jose St’s defense has been alright, but their offense has only been averaging 19.4-PPG. This line is suggesting these teams are closely matched, even though UNLV is 0-6. It's interesting how UNLV is on average allowing 35-PPG, but this total is set at 44. UNLV has been in some heart breakers and this is a game they will be playing hard to win. To boot, Nick Starkle is questionable and likely not going to be able to go tonight for SJSU.
UNLV needs 17-pts tonight to cover in our eyes. The home team has won in this series for the last 5-years and they should be fired up to be on National TV, you know they dont get a chance to be on the spotlight often. We believe the motivation is on UNLV being hungry for a win, vs a team just off a disappointing loss in OT. We aren't shocked if the 12-game losing streak ends tonight, but we are confident in this ATS cover. Good luck.
This game should be a good one under the Friday night lights. These two squads have now squared off 14-times against each other dating back to 2005, and it has been quite the one-sided affair. Memphis has only won 1 time vs UCF and it was last season in a 50-49 pt game. Let’s dive in and let us explain why we see value in taking UCF tonight.
UCF has had some injuries that are noteable with their starting QB and starting RB down and out, but this team is still undefeated at home and under the Friday night lights is the perfect spot to get back in the swing of things. The TOTAL in tonight’s game implies that both teams put up some points somewhere in the 30’s which is encouraging. Memphis hasn’t been a great squad over the last month, but everyone is going to remember that they pulled away against a poor Navy squad covering ATS last week and ignore that they dropped 3-games straight prior to that. UCF got messed up last week, but that was against the #3 team in the nation. MEMPHIS’ DEFENSE IS NOTHING CLOSE TO CINCY!
The home field edge is exactly what UCF needs to right the ship. Memphis has the lowest time of possession in the country. UCF will need to grind out this game and utilize the home field and keep this Memphis squad off the field. Memphis has never won in Orlando! Losing Gabriel is a big hit, but Keene hasn’t been as bad as many make him out to be. He has completed 62.1% of his passes and has thrown for as many TD’s as he has picks, but Memphis doesn’t force pressure and has limited turnovers on the season. This Memphis squad has a lot of action on them tonight and this is more of a coin-flip-esque game. We are taking the home team to win tonight. We found it interesting that PFF has UCF ranked 55th overall with a 94% chance of making a bowl while Memphis is ranked 65th with only a 79% chance of makings a bowl. Memphis hasn’t proven they can hang on the road so with value in mind we are backing UCF. Good luck!
This game should be a good one under the Friday night lights. These two squads have now squared off 14-times against each other dating back to 2005, and it has been quite the one-sided affair. Memphis has only won 1 time vs UCF and it was last season in a 50-49 pt game. Let’s dive in and let us explain why we see value in taking UCF tonight.
UCF has had some injuries that are noteable with their starting QB and starting RB down and out, but this team is still undefeated at home and under the Friday night lights is the perfect spot to get back in the swing of things. The TOTAL in tonight’s game implies that both teams put up some points somewhere in the 30’s which is encouraging. Memphis hasn’t been a great squad over the last month, but everyone is going to remember that they pulled away against a poor Navy squad covering ATS last week and ignore that they dropped 3-games straight prior to that. UCF got messed up last week, but that was against the #3 team in the nation. MEMPHIS’ DEFENSE IS NOTHING CLOSE TO CINCY!
The home field edge is exactly what UCF needs to right the ship. Memphis has the lowest time of possession in the country. UCF will need to grind out this game and utilize the home field and keep this Memphis squad off the field. Memphis has never won in Orlando! Losing Gabriel is a big hit, but Keene hasn’t been as bad as many make him out to be. He has completed 62.1% of his passes and has thrown for as many TD’s as he has picks, but Memphis doesn’t force pressure and has limited turnovers on the season. This Memphis squad has a lot of action on them tonight and this is more of a coin-flip-esque game. We are taking the home team to win tonight. We found it interesting that PFF has UCF ranked 55th overall with a 94% chance of making a bowl while Memphis is ranked 65th with only a 79% chance of makings a bowl. Memphis hasn’t proven they can hang on the road so with value in mind we are backing UCF. Good luck!
3-1 in NCAAF this week. Hope to have a big Saturday!
9:00am PST
Northwestern @ Michigan
Northwestern +24 -110 <1 unit>
This isn't a game where we think the DOG will win outright, but Michigan might be inflated as hell here. We ran some spread analysis and Michigan was -17 at home vs WMU, -27 vs NIU, -20 vs Rutgers and now -24 off a BYE to Northwestern. Well, Northwestern is a power 5 team and they are getting basically as much as a MAC team? Come on Vegas! We know this line is inflated for a reason, but with MSU on deck, this is NOT a blow out spot IMO.
Michigan can not afford to limp into next weeks top 10 showdown. MSU is a team they are definitely looking ahead to. When you go into your BYE 6-0, it slows down momentum. In addition, they ALL KNOW they have undefeated MSU on deck. They know they will trounce Northwestern and they will be overlooking this game 100%. On the other hand, Northwestern is off a win vs Rutgers as 2.5 point dogs. This helps with their confidence and that same Rutgers team gave Michigan a run for their money.
We all know Michigan loves running the ball, and NWU just held Rutgers to 63 rushing yards last week. To be honest, Michigan could be 4-2 or 5-1 going into this game. Would the spread still be +24? We know Michigan has the best rushing offense in conference, and NWU has the worst rushing D, so the game plan seems that simple right? When it seems that easy, it usually isnt...Michigan is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games vs NWU, however, they are only 4-6 ATS. In addition, when Michigan has momentum and goes into their bye, they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye. With a MASSIVE MSU game on deck, we think this is way too many points for them to not look ahead. Take the points! Good luck!
3-1 in NCAAF this week. Hope to have a big Saturday!
9:00am PST
Northwestern @ Michigan
Northwestern +24 -110 <1 unit>
This isn't a game where we think the DOG will win outright, but Michigan might be inflated as hell here. We ran some spread analysis and Michigan was -17 at home vs WMU, -27 vs NIU, -20 vs Rutgers and now -24 off a BYE to Northwestern. Well, Northwestern is a power 5 team and they are getting basically as much as a MAC team? Come on Vegas! We know this line is inflated for a reason, but with MSU on deck, this is NOT a blow out spot IMO.
Michigan can not afford to limp into next weeks top 10 showdown. MSU is a team they are definitely looking ahead to. When you go into your BYE 6-0, it slows down momentum. In addition, they ALL KNOW they have undefeated MSU on deck. They know they will trounce Northwestern and they will be overlooking this game 100%. On the other hand, Northwestern is off a win vs Rutgers as 2.5 point dogs. This helps with their confidence and that same Rutgers team gave Michigan a run for their money.
We all know Michigan loves running the ball, and NWU just held Rutgers to 63 rushing yards last week. To be honest, Michigan could be 4-2 or 5-1 going into this game. Would the spread still be +24? We know Michigan has the best rushing offense in conference, and NWU has the worst rushing D, so the game plan seems that simple right? When it seems that easy, it usually isnt...Michigan is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games vs NWU, however, they are only 4-6 ATS. In addition, when Michigan has momentum and goes into their bye, they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye. With a MASSIVE MSU game on deck, we think this is way too many points for them to not look ahead. Take the points! Good luck!
We have the 16th ranked undefeated Wake forest team on the road only laying 3 to a 4-2 Army? HMMM. Army is off a to the wire loss to Wisconsin last week where they did absolutely nothing for 3 quarters only to score 14 in the 4th Q to cover the spread. They have a bye on deck, and Wake is off a bye, and this line just seems way to low, why?
On paper, this is actually a bad match up for Wake. They run the ball almost 60% of their plays, and Army ranks 5th in FBS in opponent rush yards per game. Wake Forest rank 90th in FBS in opponent rush yards per game. Army is the 2nd RANKED TEAM IN THE NATION in Rush Yards per game. Syracuse just tore Wake up for 354 Rush yards. Army just went up against Wisconsin who is ranked 2nd in opponent rush yards per game in FBS, and still put up 179 rush yards.
Surprisingly, Wake Forest off a bye week on the road are 0-3 SU in their last 3. Army is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 at HOME. Army is solid vs Power 5 teams, going 7-2 ATS as a dog in those games. They always come out fighting and they usually never have let down spots off big losses or wins because these academy schools are super disciplined. They would love nothing but to give their home crowd a WIN going into their bye week and then facing Air Force in two weeks. We are backing the home dogs here to BARK in the Morning. LETS GO! GOOD LUCK!
We have the 16th ranked undefeated Wake forest team on the road only laying 3 to a 4-2 Army? HMMM. Army is off a to the wire loss to Wisconsin last week where they did absolutely nothing for 3 quarters only to score 14 in the 4th Q to cover the spread. They have a bye on deck, and Wake is off a bye, and this line just seems way to low, why?
On paper, this is actually a bad match up for Wake. They run the ball almost 60% of their plays, and Army ranks 5th in FBS in opponent rush yards per game. Wake Forest rank 90th in FBS in opponent rush yards per game. Army is the 2nd RANKED TEAM IN THE NATION in Rush Yards per game. Syracuse just tore Wake up for 354 Rush yards. Army just went up against Wisconsin who is ranked 2nd in opponent rush yards per game in FBS, and still put up 179 rush yards.
Surprisingly, Wake Forest off a bye week on the road are 0-3 SU in their last 3. Army is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 at HOME. Army is solid vs Power 5 teams, going 7-2 ATS as a dog in those games. They always come out fighting and they usually never have let down spots off big losses or wins because these academy schools are super disciplined. They would love nothing but to give their home crowd a WIN going into their bye week and then facing Air Force in two weeks. We are backing the home dogs here to BARK in the Morning. LETS GO! GOOD LUCK!
Cool! I agree with ya and i'm also on NW but i think Wake gets it done today. Just have a gut feeling. As always love your write ups and can't wait to see more today. Thanks for sharing my friend.
Cool! I agree with ya and i'm also on NW but i think Wake gets it done today. Just have a gut feeling. As always love your write ups and can't wait to see more today. Thanks for sharing my friend.
BIG TEN action to kick off the afternoon. Purdue just had the biggest win in program history beating a ranked #2 Iowa last week. Cappers Paradise was all about Purdue last week, but low and behold they get a ranking next to their name now and are a 3-pt dog at home… What gives? Now it's 3.5? Vegas is begging you to take Purdue here...Let’s dive in…
For starters, Purdue hasn’t defeated Wisconsin since 2003. That’s right, they have lost 14-straight games vs the Badgers. It is worth pointing out that the Badgers 3 losses on the season were all against ranked teams, but this spread is not implying that Purdue is of the same caliber as the ranked teams that have defeated Wisconsin so far this season. Wisconsin is averaging 19.7-PPG and is allowing 19.3-PPG while Purdue is averaging 23.7-PPG and only allowing 14-PPG. Why is the ranked team that is playing at home scoring more than Wisconsin and allowing less points to be scored on them than Wisconsin, a 3-pt home dog?
This Wisconsin squad didn’t cover ATS last week at home, but they are 15-6 ATS in their last 21-games as road favorites. This game seems to have LET DOWN SPOT written all over it. This Purdue team doesn’t run well and will rely heavily on their passing game, but that’s just it guys, Wisconsin has the 6th ranked passing defense in the country. Wisconsin is going up against a good Purdue defense that just looked great vs Iowa, and they are now getting 3.5. Wisconsin has been rushing for over 200-YPG. We believe Wisconsin will control time of possession and make things very difficult for a Purdue team that is still coming down from such a big high beating #2 Iowa last week. We are taking Wisconsin and laying the points. Good luck!
BIG TEN action to kick off the afternoon. Purdue just had the biggest win in program history beating a ranked #2 Iowa last week. Cappers Paradise was all about Purdue last week, but low and behold they get a ranking next to their name now and are a 3-pt dog at home… What gives? Now it's 3.5? Vegas is begging you to take Purdue here...Let’s dive in…
For starters, Purdue hasn’t defeated Wisconsin since 2003. That’s right, they have lost 14-straight games vs the Badgers. It is worth pointing out that the Badgers 3 losses on the season were all against ranked teams, but this spread is not implying that Purdue is of the same caliber as the ranked teams that have defeated Wisconsin so far this season. Wisconsin is averaging 19.7-PPG and is allowing 19.3-PPG while Purdue is averaging 23.7-PPG and only allowing 14-PPG. Why is the ranked team that is playing at home scoring more than Wisconsin and allowing less points to be scored on them than Wisconsin, a 3-pt home dog?
This Wisconsin squad didn’t cover ATS last week at home, but they are 15-6 ATS in their last 21-games as road favorites. This game seems to have LET DOWN SPOT written all over it. This Purdue team doesn’t run well and will rely heavily on their passing game, but that’s just it guys, Wisconsin has the 6th ranked passing defense in the country. Wisconsin is going up against a good Purdue defense that just looked great vs Iowa, and they are now getting 3.5. Wisconsin has been rushing for over 200-YPG. We believe Wisconsin will control time of possession and make things very difficult for a Purdue team that is still coming down from such a big high beating #2 Iowa last week. We are taking Wisconsin and laying the points. Good luck!
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