All Forums | College Football

my ratings vs vegas line week 7 (stats, systems, writeups etc inside)

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 12108
Posts: 179
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by captailor:

I like UAB as well.  Houston had hard times covering the spread at home when they had Kevin Kolb, Donnie Avery, and Althony Alridge.

 

true. another thing about houston is high totals and people stil betting the over. this trend started mid way thru the last season after they went 4-2 to the over scoring 30+ regularly and allowing tons of points to the opponents. once the linemakers decided to keep their totals in the 60's for good, the under started hitting like crazy (their final 6 games last season went under the total) and they started losing against the spread (0-5 ATS in the final 5 games). the losing ats trend continued this season with a 1-3 record and as soon as their totals reached 60+ pts again, the under went 2-0. in this game we have another high total and inflated line and that tells me that the linemaker doesn't expect any changes here.

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

W....... I think they permit you to post a link to your blog in your "my space" section... you might want to check with CT to find out...

 

thanks man

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by hey4:

wow good write up thanks can't wait for other write ups

 

later this week

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by 808Handicapper:

W, we were on the same pic today.  And it seems I am leaning your way again on Thursday.  Man I like your information and I truly believe we will be 2-0 by Thursday.  $$$$ is all good Baby!  Keep up the great analysis bro!

 

i did not have any picks today but i hope you had troy

 

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #30
CLE @ WF -2.5

Strange line. Not very often you'll see a ranked team favored by only 2.5 at home against the unranked team. The line is strange when I look at my ratings as well. However, I will not risk my money on this Clemson team. Lean: none
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #31
-System of the week-
 
This is something I do every week. It is not necessairly the best system that I have, but usually a good system for a game that will have heavy action on both sides and totals. This is not an official play of mine, just an additional information to many of you who will have your $ on this game. If I decide to go with any of these two teams I will post it in my writeups.
 
 
The unbeaten single digit favorites, are only 5-36 ATS in last 41, against another unbeaten team in weeks 5 thru 11 if:
 
-Neither team has been favored by 14+ pts in the previous head to head matchup.
 
-The favorite did not win the previous head-to-head matchup by 25 points or more.
 
-The favorite did not score 44 points or more.
 
5-0 Oklahoma is favored by 7 against 5-0 Texas. Oklahoma was favored by 12 last year (which is less than 14), they won by 7 (which is less than 25) and they scored 28 pts (less than 44).
 
 
These favorites are also 9-25 straight up in last 34.
 
The system of the week suggestion: Texas +7
 
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 249
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by w365:

-System of the week-
 
This is something I do every week. It is not necessairly the best system that I have, but usually a good system for a game that will have heavy action on both sides and totals. This is not an official play of mine, just an additional information to many of you who will have your $ on this game. If I decide to go with any of these two teams I will post it in my writeups.
 
 
The unbeaten single digit favorites, are only 5-36 ATS in last 41, against another unbeaten team in weeks 5 thru 11 if:
 
-Neither team has been favored by 14+ pts in the previous head to head matchup.
 
-The favorite did not win the previous head-to-head matchup by 25 points or more.
 
-The favorite did not score 44 points or more.
 
5-0 Oklahoma is favored by 7 against 5-0 Texas. Oklahoma was favored by 12 last year (which is less than 14), they won by 7 (which is less than 25) and they scored 28 pts (less than 44).
 
 
These favorites are also 9-25 straight up in last 34.
 
The system of the week suggestion: Texas +7
 
 

 

hey, what about the system 2 weeks ago, about OT winners favored by 3-21?  I believe Tulane and L. Tech qualify as plays...correct?

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 2921
Posted: #33
Appreciate your write-ups and you sharing your research w365
 
  
 
Re UAB- Houston;  I think the public (in general) remembers the waxing Hou put on a ranked and touted ECU team; and the perception that UAB's 1-4 record makes them a weak opponent...
 
UAB + a bunch ; and leanin twrd the under in that game as well.
 
GL  this week  w365 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 20937
Posted: #34
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 425
Posted: #35
W365, Thanks for the info!  I went 6-2 last week and used your info when picking my selections.  Was on the Troy Under  and I like this UAB pick! 
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:

 

hey, what about the system 2 weeks ago, about OT winners favored by 3-21?  I believe Tulane and L. Tech qualify as plays...correct?

 

it covers only the teams that won at home as favorites, in overtime.

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by lonetreejj:

Appreciate your write-ups and you sharing your research w365
 
  
 
Re UAB- Houston;  I think the public (in general) remembers the waxing Hou put on a ranked and touted ECU team; and the perception that UAB's 1-4 record makes them a weak opponent...
 
UAB + a bunch ; and leanin twrd the under in that game as well.
 
GL  this week  w365 

 

glad we agree , gl !

 

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

 

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by skimo18:

W365, Thanks for the info!  I went 6-2 last week and used your info when picking my selections.  Was on the Troy Under  and I like this UAB pick! 

 

great job man, keep it up!

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 118
Posted: #40
thanks W, great info and been arguing with my buddy all week about this one, hope I don't 'cooler' your entire post
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 54
Posted: #41
"I have Houston ranked 80 places better and these teams are rarely favored by less than 20"
 
How do you have Houston ranked 80 places better than UAB, even if UAB was 120, which they clearly are not, you have Houston in the top 40????
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2005
Posts: 1626
Posted: #42
LVSC has Houston 39th
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 24
Posted: #43
I don't see how Houston wouldn't be near the top 40 teams.  Here is my take from a separate thread. GL (but please take UAB so I don't have to buy a point to -17)
 

Just chiming in on Houston as I will be at the game tomorrow and  have made some money on them this year.  It is their first home game.  The AFA game was moved to Dallas due to Ike and they played in front of 200 people in the rain.  The crowd will be rocking especially due to ESPN coverage.  It is an intimate field that sits right on the field.  They do not let the students sit behind the visitors because 'they are too close', CUSA rules...

UAB has played some middle of the road SEC teams but they have not seen a spread.  The HC of Houston is the former OC for OU and the OC is the former OC for T Tech.  Coming off a bye week they will be dialed in for some big plays.  Defense is finally starting togel and the weak SR and JR are being replaced by talented FR, SO, and JR.  One WR that has emerged the past few weeks and also a track stud. He outran ECU's defense many times. 

Average score for UAB this year is 22.75 and giving up 26

For UH 33.5 and give up 33.25

I think UH offense is the best or 2nd best  (tenn) offense  UAB has seen while UAB's O has only scored over 30 once against Memphis. 

I like the over and Houston.  I am thinking 48 - 27 final.

GL - I agree with a few of your picks but I like TX with points (small play).

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by WMB5613:

"I have Houston ranked 80 places better and these teams are rarely favored by less than 20"
 
How do you have Houston ranked 80 places better than UAB, even if UAB was 120, which they clearly are not, you have Houston in the top 40????

 

i have houston ranked 65 and uab 145

div i-a and div i-aa are ranked together as they play each other during the season.

 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by WoodyBootz:

thanks W, great info and been arguing with my buddy all week about this one, hope I don't 'cooler' your entire post

 

which one

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 12254
Posted: #46
Not to be a pain, but didn't Michigan State cover (in spite of trying not to all day) agaisnt FAU? 
 
It's always nice to know when you've bet into the teeth of a 5-36 ATS system.   Got any more good news for me?    Wife fucking the neighbor?  Neighborhood?  Daughter got the clap?  Anything?
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

Not to be a pain, but didn't Michigan State cover (in spite of trying not to all day) agaisnt FAU? 
 
It's always nice to know when you've bet into the teeth of a 5-36 ATS system.   Got any more good news for me?    Wife fucking the neighbor?  Neighborhood?  Daughter got the clap?  Anything?

 

the line was at 17.5, 18 and 18.5 as well

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 12254
Posted: #48
I cashed it, so I must have had it at 16.5.  I usually make a bunch of plays Sunday night, so I'm often blissfully unaware of the closing numbers.
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 608
Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

I cashed it, so I must have had it at 16.5.  I usually make a bunch of plays Sunday night, so I'm often blissfully unaware of the closing numbers.

 

i will probable completely stay away from texas or have them as a lean only, so if you have oklahoma, i can wish you the best of luck ;)

 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 118
Posted: #50
UAB is the play for me, espcially since that Wake line smells like stank fish and I am obviously a dumb action junky...when do you think you will post for the weekend games?  BOL
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.