I like L-ville at home vs UK. I'd put this one at Louisville -2.5 or -3. Lousiville's defense will improve with English in at DC, and the Ville is better positioned to replace Brohm compared to UK trying to replace Woodsen.
English will help, but these guys had games last year where they collapsed. I'm not convinced the talent is there. They gave up 200+ yards rushing in four games(including MTSU). Their rushing defense numbers are distorted by their performance vs the shitty teams on the schedule. I don't know if UK should be favored or not, but The Ville is gonna have another bad year.
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Quote Originally Posted by centerpiece:
I like L-ville at home vs UK. I'd put this one at Louisville -2.5 or -3. Lousiville's defense will improve with English in at DC, and the Ville is better positioned to replace Brohm compared to UK trying to replace Woodsen.
English will help, but these guys had games last year where they collapsed. I'm not convinced the talent is there. They gave up 200+ yards rushing in four games(including MTSU). Their rushing defense numbers are distorted by their performance vs the shitty teams on the schedule. I don't know if UK should be favored or not, but The Ville is gonna have another bad year.
Wake +9 in TO's lastyear, and +13 the year before. Lastyear they were outgained by Army,Duke,UNC, and Vandy among others. Sooner or later that TO margin is gonna go the other way and Wake will be losing those games instead of winning.
That is one way of looking at it, the other is that good teams win the turnover battle which is why they are good and bad teams lose the turnover battle which is why they are bad. Its all in how you approach the issue.
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Quote Originally Posted by zcoach99:
Wake +9 in TO's lastyear, and +13 the year before. Lastyear they were outgained by Army,Duke,UNC, and Vandy among others. Sooner or later that TO margin is gonna go the other way and Wake will be losing those games instead of winning.
That is one way of looking at it, the other is that good teams win the turnover battle which is why they are good and bad teams lose the turnover battle which is why they are bad. Its all in how you approach the issue.
This post is such a joke, I don't know where to even being. i'll make it short because I'm mad jsut reading it. Hawaii is traveling better? Traveling better? A. they dont travel anywhere far, when they do, they will be traveling to the fuckin Swamp. I personally am not a UF fan (I hate the Patriots but I bet on em b/c I new it was a good bet), so is this. Hawaii plans no1, whenever they plan any1 decent, embarressment. Colt on the bench was an excuse, and they lost thier leader. Most of their older talent Bass went NFL draft! Their skill positions will be weak players and the face that their D coordinators and players stayed is a downfall. Returning the same shitty players doesnt make you good, sorry. Florida is practicing for a Nation Champ Game vs OSU or WVU all summer and will begin the season with a statement game in the swamp against a soft, inexperienced Hawaii team which is about to travel half the globe in the wrong direction. If the spread is only -20, i might be taking out bank loands to bet Florida.
That was some funny shit, man. There was so much wrong with your post...I had to stop with criticizing the first sentence.
Most Hawaii fans are pretty deflated after the Sugar Bowl. I wouldn't expect a lot of cash to be flying in from the bet-happy Hawaiians. Florida and the Tebow worshipers...okay SEC worshipers...will be out in force to push the spread even wider. I predict a 28 point spread to start. Lopsided bets will push the spread to 30 points by game time.
USC covered pretty well against a similar spread in Colt Brennan's first start as a Warrior. I don't expect much respect from anyone in the season openner.
I think Hawaii will start (QB) Tyler Graunke...who does just fine under pressure....and has good stat's to back it up. He threw the lone TD in the Sugar Bowl for Hawaii. The replacement receiving corps is good, but unproven. Hawaii's defense will be much improved.
Is this a lock for Florida? Dunno. Didn't they lose 4 games last year? The keys to stuffing Florida's offense were figured out last year. Hawaii might be good offensively, but no one can say how the new changes in offensive personnel and tactics will pan-out.
I wouldn't touch this bet.
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Quote Originally Posted by NostradomusJr:
This post is such a joke, I don't know where to even being. i'll make it short because I'm mad jsut reading it. Hawaii is traveling better? Traveling better? A. they dont travel anywhere far, when they do, they will be traveling to the fuckin Swamp. I personally am not a UF fan (I hate the Patriots but I bet on em b/c I new it was a good bet), so is this. Hawaii plans no1, whenever they plan any1 decent, embarressment. Colt on the bench was an excuse, and they lost thier leader. Most of their older talent Bass went NFL draft! Their skill positions will be weak players and the face that their D coordinators and players stayed is a downfall. Returning the same shitty players doesnt make you good, sorry. Florida is practicing for a Nation Champ Game vs OSU or WVU all summer and will begin the season with a statement game in the swamp against a soft, inexperienced Hawaii team which is about to travel half the globe in the wrong direction. If the spread is only -20, i might be taking out bank loands to bet Florida.
That was some funny shit, man. There was so much wrong with your post...I had to stop with criticizing the first sentence.
Most Hawaii fans are pretty deflated after the Sugar Bowl. I wouldn't expect a lot of cash to be flying in from the bet-happy Hawaiians. Florida and the Tebow worshipers...okay SEC worshipers...will be out in force to push the spread even wider. I predict a 28 point spread to start. Lopsided bets will push the spread to 30 points by game time.
USC covered pretty well against a similar spread in Colt Brennan's first start as a Warrior. I don't expect much respect from anyone in the season openner.
I think Hawaii will start (QB) Tyler Graunke...who does just fine under pressure....and has good stat's to back it up. He threw the lone TD in the Sugar Bowl for Hawaii. The replacement receiving corps is good, but unproven. Hawaii's defense will be much improved.
Is this a lock for Florida? Dunno. Didn't they lose 4 games last year? The keys to stuffing Florida's offense were figured out last year. Hawaii might be good offensively, but no one can say how the new changes in offensive personnel and tactics will pan-out.
MauiWarrior - do you really think Graunke gets the start here? I here some of the juco kids that transfered will be in for the summer training with the team and working out, and those guys are the real deal. Thats just what im hearing from some of my friends close to the team. This is going to be a similar yet different offense that will be a little easier to control. We all know the last time Hawaii played at a number 1 was in USC, i believe the year they won the National Championship. Every hawaii fan here will tell you the game was fixed and everyone still remembers that play on special teams.
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MauiWarrior - do you really think Graunke gets the start here? I here some of the juco kids that transfered will be in for the summer training with the team and working out, and those guys are the real deal. Thats just what im hearing from some of my friends close to the team. This is going to be a similar yet different offense that will be a little easier to control. We all know the last time Hawaii played at a number 1 was in USC, i believe the year they won the National Championship. Every hawaii fan here will tell you the game was fixed and everyone still remembers that play on special teams.
Well, let's put it this way...it's Tyler's job to lose. The two juco guys are huge and have good stat's for juco...but Graunke's pulled through when we needed him in the past. He's got a good arm and good wheels. His negatives are that he's a little short, a little moody, and favors the long ball (gunslinger). I don't know if the gunslinger thing was a result of losing the starting job a second time to Colt Brennan in 2007...maybe.
Anyway, there are too many unknown variables to bet this game. With the QB taking snaps under center, will there be more mishandled snaps? Will a new RB show a tendency for fumbles in game situations? Will all 4 new starters at WR/slot be workhorses or showboats? Dunno.
Anyway, I also feel Florida is overhyped. Can Hawaii win straight up? Absolutely. Will I bet money on it? Nope.
I usually don't bet until the 3rd week of CFB, so I found this thread/topic interesting.
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Well, let's put it this way...it's Tyler's job to lose. The two juco guys are huge and have good stat's for juco...but Graunke's pulled through when we needed him in the past. He's got a good arm and good wheels. His negatives are that he's a little short, a little moody, and favors the long ball (gunslinger). I don't know if the gunslinger thing was a result of losing the starting job a second time to Colt Brennan in 2007...maybe.
Anyway, there are too many unknown variables to bet this game. With the QB taking snaps under center, will there be more mishandled snaps? Will a new RB show a tendency for fumbles in game situations? Will all 4 new starters at WR/slot be workhorses or showboats? Dunno.
Anyway, I also feel Florida is overhyped. Can Hawaii win straight up? Absolutely. Will I bet money on it? Nope.
I usually don't bet until the 3rd week of CFB, so I found this thread/topic interesting.
could someone tell me where these spreads are coming from what web sight thanx
There are several people on this site who know the methodology of how point spreads are set. No wagering site has published lines as of yet, but you'll see that kaplan's spreads will be pretty accurate once they are released.
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Quote Originally Posted by dsteele16:
could someone tell me where these spreads are coming from what web sight thanx
There are several people on this site who know the methodology of how point spreads are set. No wagering site has published lines as of yet, but you'll see that kaplan's spreads will be pretty accurate once they are released.
Are you clows serious?! Were all sitting here saying that were going to debated betting this possible 30-point spread, Hawaii has none of the tools to hang with UF, we all no this -- Florida is wayy to talented, and wayy to fast. I'm not betting on the top 5 teams every week, never said that, but u bet ur ass I'll be painting Florida. It'll be covered by half.
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Are you clows serious?! Were all sitting here saying that were going to debated betting this possible 30-point spread, Hawaii has none of the tools to hang with UF, we all no this -- Florida is wayy to talented, and wayy to fast. I'm not betting on the top 5 teams every week, never said that, but u bet ur ass I'll be painting Florida. It'll be covered by half.
could someone tell me where these spreads are coming from what web sight thanx
These lines are coming from a computer program that is in it's infancy, and I'm just trying to get an idea of how they stack up to what other handicappers on here are seeing for week 1.
Lemonsky
Cdizzle, Won't be long now. Just hold it together for a few more weeks.
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Quote Originally Posted by dsteele16:
could someone tell me where these spreads are coming from what web sight thanx
These lines are coming from a computer program that is in it's infancy, and I'm just trying to get an idea of how they stack up to what other handicappers on here are seeing for week 1.
Lemonsky
Cdizzle, Won't be long now. Just hold it together for a few more weeks.
I think TCU will smoke New Mex. Also, you gotta watch that Colo/Colo State game. It's always super close. Last 4 decided by 3 or less. Overall, I think your lines look pretty good. Yea, you may want to check that USC game again. Keep'em coming. I'm kinda gettin my fix off this thread.
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I think TCU will smoke New Mex. Also, you gotta watch that Colo/Colo State game. It's always super close. Last 4 decided by 3 or less. Overall, I think your lines look pretty good. Yea, you may want to check that USC game again. Keep'em coming. I'm kinda gettin my fix off this thread.
That RU line will not be that high. With Rice and some key lineman gone, it will be under a TD. Fresno st also a very good road team. Also, the game is being played at 4pm on Labor day. Most students will be back but don't expect the place to rocking since most fans will be still down the shore BBQ'n. Teel will be throwing the ball around to a great returning WR core that will be eastin on a lot of the BE defenses. RU defense will be what wins this one, prob by 4-5pts.
Great job on starting this thread as onces Sunday comes and the Euro 08 is over, CF is all I will be thinking and working on. Seems your system is pretty good, I not asking for it but would like to know some of what your basing it on. GL
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Kaplan,
That RU line will not be that high. With Rice and some key lineman gone, it will be under a TD. Fresno st also a very good road team. Also, the game is being played at 4pm on Labor day. Most students will be back but don't expect the place to rocking since most fans will be still down the shore BBQ'n. Teel will be throwing the ball around to a great returning WR core that will be eastin on a lot of the BE defenses. RU defense will be what wins this one, prob by 4-5pts.
Great job on starting this thread as onces Sunday comes and the Euro 08 is over, CF is all I will be thinking and working on. Seems your system is pretty good, I not asking for it but would like to know some of what your basing it on. GL
Backdoor, You could be spot on with Fresno. They did give up 5 yards per carrie last year.
Bracks, This program uses 14 different stats for each game. YPC,PPG,Def PPG,Pass Eff, etc....etc.... I take all those stats, put them in the computer, and the computer runs thousands of simulations, and spits out three lines. I take the average of the three, and if I see a four point advantage for a home team, I bet the game. Once I have about a 1000 game sample, I'll feel really good about it. Right now, I'm working with about 285. It's a real headache.
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Troe, I agree USC is gonna whoop UVA's ass.
Backdoor, You could be spot on with Fresno. They did give up 5 yards per carrie last year.
Bracks, This program uses 14 different stats for each game. YPC,PPG,Def PPG,Pass Eff, etc....etc.... I take all those stats, put them in the computer, and the computer runs thousands of simulations, and spits out three lines. I take the average of the three, and if I see a four point advantage for a home team, I bet the game. Once I have about a 1000 game sample, I'll feel really good about it. Right now, I'm working with about 285. It's a real headache.
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This post is such a joke, I don't know where to even being. 
i'll make it short because I'm mad jsut reading it. Hawaii is traveling better? Traveling better? A. they dont travel anywhere far, when they do, they will be traveling to the fuckin Swamp. I personally am not a UF fan (I hate the Patriots but I bet on em b/c I new it was a good bet), so is this. Hawaii plans no1, whenever they plan any1 decent, embarressment. Colt on the bench was an excuse, and they lost thier leader. Most of their older talent Bass went NFL draft! Their skill positions will be weak players and the face that their D coordinators and players stayed is a downfall. Returning the same shitty players doesnt make you good, sorry. Florida is practicing for a Nation Champ Game vs OSU or WVU all summer and will begin the season with a statement game in the swamp against a soft, inexperienced Hawaii team which is about to travel half the globe in the wrong direction. If the spread is only -20, i might be taking out bank loands to bet Florida.
That was some funny shit, man. There was so much wrong with your post...I had to stop with criticizing the first sentence. 
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