Posted:
#51
In many instances I would call a team with a resume like Mississippi State's a fraud. Looking at the schedule, you could make a salient argument that the best team the Bulldogs have played is Middle Tennessee State. Sure, Tennessee would be favored over MTSU on a neutral field...but could you trust a Derek Dooley-coached team to beat anybody at this point?
Also, in the preseason I had this game as a prime lookahead spot for Bama, considering LSU is looming next week. However, with an undefeated record and a top-15 ranking, the Bulldogs are now squarely in Bama's crosshairs. In addition, since LSU already lost an SEC game at Florida, a loss to MSU would make next week's "Game of the Century" fairly meaningless. All told, MSU going undefeated was probably the worst thing that could happen in regards to this week's game against Bama.
With all that being said, I think what will keep this game close and allow the Bulldogs to cover +24 is their ability to force turnovers. A.J. McCarron hasn't seen a secondary like this all season. Look at the Pass Efficiency Defense rankings of Bama's schedule thus far:
Michigan: 15 (nobody passes in the Big Ten)
Western KY: 53
Arkansas: 107
Florida Atl: 112
Ole Miss: 74
Missouri: 75
Tennessee: 66
Mississippi State is 12th nationally, and the Dogs have NFL talent in the secondary. Now, they have also struggled to defend the run at times, so it's possible that Bama won't need to pass very often. But MSU is better than just about any team in the country at forcing turnovers. If Bama comes out flat and spots MSU 7 easy points early, then the game could get interesting.
MSU 13
Bama 28
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