Posted:
#1
During the Saban era I usually fade Alabama once or twice a year. Last year's Mississippi State game was one of those occasions, and I felt very fortunate to cover the game by a half of a point.
This season I have not faded Alabama once even though I liked the other side when they played the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, and Florida Atlantic. Alabama ultimately failed to cover either game. The only reason I didn't fade Alabama on those two occasions was because I liked the UNDER much better.
In years past odds makers would set the totals on these games south of 50 which made the side a more attractive bet. For some reason odds makers set much higher totals on these non-conference patsy games this season which have flipped the odds for me. In other words, I was more comfortable with UNDER 54 and UNDER 57 in those two games respectively because I knew there was a great shot Alabama's defense would pitch shutouts, or very close to it, and I knew Alabama would not take it over by themselves. I explain all this to set the foundation for why I like UNDER 47 more than the side.
Alabama is 4 & 0 ATS away from Bryant-Denny Stadium this season, and 0 & 3 ATS at Bryant-Denny. This actually seems to be a trend with Alabama the last couple of seasons. They seem to be more focused on the road for some reason, and Alabama historically always seems to be even less focused on homecoming weekend.
Mississippi State enters this game with what I consider a somewhat deceiving 7 & 0 record. Last season they entered this game with a 5 & 4 mark, but their 4 losses were to Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. This season the front half of Mississippi State's schedule was a whole lot more hospital. This season they enter the game with wins over Jacksonville State, Auburn, Troy, South Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee & MTSU. Moreover, Mississippi State caught their toughest two opponents (Auburn & Tennessee) at home. So while I mean to take away nothing from what the Bulldogs have accomplished this season, because I definitely think they are an improved team over last season, I think the disparity between last season's schedule heading into the Alabama game and this season schedule is significant.
Prior to conference expansion, Alabama typically played Mississippi State after the LSU game. I faded Alabama last season for that very reason. With conference expansion Alabama now catches Mississippi State at a much more advantageous time than in years past.
After Alabama lost the SEC Championship Game to Florida in 2008, Saban dedicated himself to figuring out how to stop the Urban Meyer/Dan Mullin offense. Since that time, Saban has done just that. He has absolutely owned Florida and a Dan Mullin coached Mississippi State team ever since. Here are the Mississippi State/Alabama scores in the Saban era:
2011 - 24-7 (31 total points)
2010 - 30-10 (40 total points)
2009 - 31-3 (34 total points)
2008 - 32-7 (39 total points)
2007 - 12-17 (29 total points)
NOTE: 7 of the 17 points score by Mississippi State in 2007 (coached by Sylvester Croom at the time) came on a 100 yard interception return for a touchdown on the last play of the 1st half.
Nevertheless, Mississippi State has averaged 8.8 points per game over the Saban era. Honestly I don't think much will change in this game. I think Mississippi State will probably not hit double digits again this season (bet UNDER 11 or 11.5 Mississippi State Team Total).
Over the same 5 year span, Alabama has averaged 25.8 points per game for an average margin of victory of 17 points per game. That average jumps to 29.25 points per game if we ignore the 12-point game in 2007.
When this line first came out at 24.5, I leaned Mississippi State in this game. I've backed off of that slightly because the vibe I'm getting from the players this week is that they really want to make a statement in this game. They really seem to have some extra motivation, unlike the last couple of seasons when Alabama has caught them in somewhat of a let-down situation following tough LSU games.
In the end I think this game plays out very similar to the previous 4 match-ups between these two teams, which is to say I think the line is very sharp. If I were to bet a side, I would take the Bulldogs if I could get more than 24, and would take Alabama if I could get it under 24 (which is where it sits now). Be that as it may, I will pass on the side of this game and play the number that I think has a lot more value . . . the total.
Odds makers have front loaded most of Alabama's totals this season. With a total of 47 one would expect a 1st half total of something like 23.5. But what has often times been the case this season is that the 1st half total will come out at something like 27. If odds makers do front-load the total, I will play UNDER 1st half. If they don't, I'll play UNDER 47 for the game. In either event I'll also play UNDER the Mississippi Team Total of 11 or 11.5, and will very likely play the 2nd half UNDER (depending on how the 1st half goes). Until I actually see the 1st half line for this game, I'll stick with the following official plays.
Mississippi State/Alabama UNDER 47
Mississippi State Team Total UNDER 11 (line is a guess)
I may add to this when the 1st half lines are released.
Best of luck to all!!!
This season I have not faded Alabama once even though I liked the other side when they played the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, and Florida Atlantic. Alabama ultimately failed to cover either game. The only reason I didn't fade Alabama on those two occasions was because I liked the UNDER much better.
In years past odds makers would set the totals on these games south of 50 which made the side a more attractive bet. For some reason odds makers set much higher totals on these non-conference patsy games this season which have flipped the odds for me. In other words, I was more comfortable with UNDER 54 and UNDER 57 in those two games respectively because I knew there was a great shot Alabama's defense would pitch shutouts, or very close to it, and I knew Alabama would not take it over by themselves. I explain all this to set the foundation for why I like UNDER 47 more than the side.
Alabama is 4 & 0 ATS away from Bryant-Denny Stadium this season, and 0 & 3 ATS at Bryant-Denny. This actually seems to be a trend with Alabama the last couple of seasons. They seem to be more focused on the road for some reason, and Alabama historically always seems to be even less focused on homecoming weekend.
Mississippi State enters this game with what I consider a somewhat deceiving 7 & 0 record. Last season they entered this game with a 5 & 4 mark, but their 4 losses were to Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina. This season the front half of Mississippi State's schedule was a whole lot more hospital. This season they enter the game with wins over Jacksonville State, Auburn, Troy, South Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee & MTSU. Moreover, Mississippi State caught their toughest two opponents (Auburn & Tennessee) at home. So while I mean to take away nothing from what the Bulldogs have accomplished this season, because I definitely think they are an improved team over last season, I think the disparity between last season's schedule heading into the Alabama game and this season schedule is significant.
Prior to conference expansion, Alabama typically played Mississippi State after the LSU game. I faded Alabama last season for that very reason. With conference expansion Alabama now catches Mississippi State at a much more advantageous time than in years past.
After Alabama lost the SEC Championship Game to Florida in 2008, Saban dedicated himself to figuring out how to stop the Urban Meyer/Dan Mullin offense. Since that time, Saban has done just that. He has absolutely owned Florida and a Dan Mullin coached Mississippi State team ever since. Here are the Mississippi State/Alabama scores in the Saban era:
2011 - 24-7 (31 total points)
2010 - 30-10 (40 total points)
2009 - 31-3 (34 total points)
2008 - 32-7 (39 total points)
2007 - 12-17 (29 total points)
NOTE: 7 of the 17 points score by Mississippi State in 2007 (coached by Sylvester Croom at the time) came on a 100 yard interception return for a touchdown on the last play of the 1st half.
Nevertheless, Mississippi State has averaged 8.8 points per game over the Saban era. Honestly I don't think much will change in this game. I think Mississippi State will probably not hit double digits again this season (bet UNDER 11 or 11.5 Mississippi State Team Total).
Over the same 5 year span, Alabama has averaged 25.8 points per game for an average margin of victory of 17 points per game. That average jumps to 29.25 points per game if we ignore the 12-point game in 2007.
When this line first came out at 24.5, I leaned Mississippi State in this game. I've backed off of that slightly because the vibe I'm getting from the players this week is that they really want to make a statement in this game. They really seem to have some extra motivation, unlike the last couple of seasons when Alabama has caught them in somewhat of a let-down situation following tough LSU games.
In the end I think this game plays out very similar to the previous 4 match-ups between these two teams, which is to say I think the line is very sharp. If I were to bet a side, I would take the Bulldogs if I could get more than 24, and would take Alabama if I could get it under 24 (which is where it sits now). Be that as it may, I will pass on the side of this game and play the number that I think has a lot more value . . . the total.
Odds makers have front loaded most of Alabama's totals this season. With a total of 47 one would expect a 1st half total of something like 23.5. But what has often times been the case this season is that the 1st half total will come out at something like 27. If odds makers do front-load the total, I will play UNDER 1st half. If they don't, I'll play UNDER 47 for the game. In either event I'll also play UNDER the Mississippi Team Total of 11 or 11.5, and will very likely play the 2nd half UNDER (depending on how the 1st half goes). Until I actually see the 1st half line for this game, I'll stick with the following official plays.
Mississippi State/Alabama UNDER 47
Mississippi State Team Total UNDER 11 (line is a guess)
I may add to this when the 1st half lines are released.
Best of luck to all!!!0
if 12 or less ....
All three of Alabama's home games went under. Thus the under is 3 & 0 . . . not 0 & 3. This was discussed in the write-up you probably didn't read.
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