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McLovin's NCAAF System Plays --- Week 8

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Posted: #26
  Very intersted in this formula..Hope you have a big week..You maybe on to something!!!!   GL
 
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Posted: #27
GL this week with your card -
 
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Posted: #28
Too many games but look good GL
 
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Posted: #29

Good luck Bro, I hope you win...I like your picks too...

You like Baylor even without Griffith Jr???

 

GL

 
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Posted: #30
i'll have a mclovin with all the sides! BOL
 
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Posted: #31
lets see what happens after this week....good work with the stats bro.
 
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Posted: #32
Is this different from the YPPT system on the other thread?
 
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Posted: #33

Thanks, everybody!

CallMeBruce (great avatar), I'm not sure which other thread you are referring to, but my YPPT method is different.  I tried to use unique weights and filters for each category, along with my own mix-in of the SOS from Sagarin.  I think my filters or weights (or both) are off a bit because the system spits out almost every underdog when you get to a line of about 24+ points.  At the same time, maybe this system with a few different filters could actually work in predicting certain underdog plays. 

 
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Posted: #34
Thanks for the time you put in for picks.My system includes some of Sagarin figures.I really like the following teams.Clemson,No.Illinois,Michigan,Kansas,Idaho,Unlv.Keep in touch.GL
 
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Posted: #35

Yes you can! Check it this weekend,and then get back to me.GL

 
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Posted: #36
GL this weekend, will be checking results
 
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Posted: #37
Nice thread alwayson....i am leaning pretty heavily on ARK in their game against ole miss this weekend and they are a 6.5 point dog...any chance you can tell me where ur system puts the score?
 
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Posted: #38
USMCatc777, The system had Ole Miss winning by a FG.  Add in the points for home field and it's right around the line.  I'd lean towards Arkansas, too, because Snead hasn't proven anything against decent teams this year.  Ole Miss has beaten Memphis, SE Louisiana, Vanderbilt, and UAB.  That non-conf schedule is a joke.
 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
GL MC
 
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Posted: #41
Ok cool...i like formulas...they fascinate me, so i will be following you this week and then possibly tailing you if u have another mediocre-good week...i was gonna add u as a friend but have no idea how to, any suggestions?
 
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Posted: #42
Baylor +10   
Clemson +7    
Minnesota +18    
Navy -3    
Boston College +9    
Tennessee +17    
Idaho +13.5    
Michigan +4.5    
Kansas +7.5    
UL-Monroe +17    
SMU +17    
Missouri +13.5    
Miss. St. +23    
N. Illinois -11    
UNLV PK    
OREGON ST. +21    
 
   6-9-1 for the Week
 
Looks like the formula needs some more tweaking.  It's going to be a wild ride if it keeps spitting out almost all underdogs!  It looked good on paper last week (5-0), but I need to find some other filters ...  (of course, the sample size is so small and the system doesn't account for variables like Navy and ULM missing their starting QB's.)   I was stoked to see three of my favorite plays of the day (UNLV, Miss. St., and Tenn) come out winners.  However, it was dissapointing to see Baylor, Mizzou, and Michigan roll over and die on their home fields.  I was kind of hoping I could use the home dog filter I had, but that was kind of crushed today.
 
Take care, everyone and let's get back at it for Week 9!
 
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Posted: #43
still pretty good work alwayson!! keep tweaking that system.i look forward to your picks for week 9
 
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Posted: #44
should i fade this system next week? :D
 
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Posted: #45
Just an idea...i have no idea how ur formula works, if u could find a way to factor this stuff in, or if this will make a difference....but what if u factored in......

1. Size of O-Line/Hurries on the quarterback, how the QB performs when hurried. Also to include with this you can possibly calculate how the O-line performs against both Truck sized d-lines and speed sized d-lines

2. Height of wide receivers vs. height of db's/ whether or not the other db's struggle against taller receivers


Seems to me like once u are in this stage of the season all a team's secrets are out, and alot more player vs. player matchups become much more of a factor, therefore this could POSSIBLY help ur formula....i have no idea if it will, just food for thought.
 
 
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Posted: #46
let me know what u think/ if that has any chance of helping
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