There are sooo many trends out there in CFB, some have no logic, some do, or at least we think they do!
Here is one I saw;
New Mexico Lobos are 1-14 ATS in Game #11 since 2005. Now I've looked this and it all depends whose line you use, but yeah they don't cover a lot in game #11's. The logic here, beats me. Other than a lot of games were against Colorado St and the Lobos have not covered a Colorado St game since 2009.
My favorite team to predict right now is Maryland.
They don't get a lot of top recruits so they have speed with not much size. The offense is a "big play" offense with a weak passing game, dependent on the run. Offensive line very bad against pass rush.
Maryland won three games last year, were favored in those three games, and covered the spread those three games. They were against Howard, Syracuse, and Rutgers.
Howard's defense not ranked, Syracuse D was 112th in yards per rush, Rutgers D was 101.
!As soon as the Terp's hit a good rush defense they lose horribly! Penn St D ended the season #1 in yards per rush at 2.7 yds per rush! The Terps were a +7 dog and lost 59-0. Temple D was 41st in yds/carry, Temple won 20-17 as a +5 dog.
As always there are a few outliers. The Terps covered vs Indiana by .5 pts and at season ending game vs Mich St who had no offense by then.
So as a fav they were 3-2 ats and as a dog were 2-5 ats. The three covers as fav's they covered by 49(-30), 42(-1), and 27(-14).
The five loses ats as dogs they failed to cover by 52.5(+7), 28(+14), 9.5(+21.5), 16.5(+42.5), and 40(+7).
The books can't seem to swing the points far enough for this Jekyll & Hyde team.
So early on look and see if Maryland still has weak passing game, (all may depend on if Tagovailoa granted a waiver)then pencil in future games with tuff run defenses!!
They start the season strong. Last 4 yrs have won games #1  each year, including Texas twice! They have covered 7 of those eight games ATS with the lone exception being the Howard game in 2016 as a 50 pt fav.
They run their QB too much and have limited depth, IMO. As a result they fad fast almost every year. Too small for the Big10.
Talking CFB here, no P-word or C-word!!! Comments welcome, what trends do you have?