Sagrin lines out and lol wooooah nellie... ok ill take all underdogs sides and ML's i guess... note monmouth / S.ILL, davidson shown as the home team, i dont believe thats the case but not 100% sure.. ~2.5 pt adjustment to sag model if its wrong.. lesson 1.. when there is no interconf play the models tend to get a little confused .. ergo.. bookies likely to have looser opening lines.. Seems like models are most confused about the big sky... besides those I would kinda expect the lines we end up getting to have mostly the same favs as and we'll see how they try to contort them into reality .. should be a bit of value available ...
Sagrin lines out and lol wooooah nellie... ok ill take all underdogs sides and ML's i guess... note monmouth / S.ILL, davidson shown as the home team, i dont believe thats the case but not 100% sure.. ~2.5 pt adjustment to sag model if its wrong.. lesson 1.. when there is no interconf play the models tend to get a little confused .. ergo.. bookies likely to have looser opening lines.. Seems like models are most confused about the big sky... besides those I would kinda expect the lines we end up getting to have mostly the same favs as and we'll see how they try to contort them into reality .. should be a bit of value available ...
looks like sagrin numbers got updated... much more realistic now ...
really woulda liked to see potential weber/e.wash, jmu/del matchups in 2nd or 3rd rd .. i guess seeing one of these is possible in the champ game but what a whiff getting these essentially conf champ matchups together...
looks like sagrin numbers got updated... much more realistic now ...
really woulda liked to see potential weber/e.wash, jmu/del matchups in 2nd or 3rd rd .. i guess seeing one of these is possible in the champ game but what a whiff getting these essentially conf champ matchups together...
JVILLE/DAVIDSON UNDER 48.5 bought at 44, might buy some back at 41 or so.. funky storm might hit yeah but even if not funny feeling davidson doesnt score much here.. 10 to 14 maybe and theyll burn clock doing it.. Jvill shouldnt have much trouble scoring 31-35 maybe more and hope we get a relaxed H2 w easy win.. wet ball maybe helps but could also hurt and does seem like J-Ville has put a few exclamation points on late in some of their games nabbing perhapse some late covers .. hopefully they just take the win and move on in this one...
NDSU -4 NDSU/E.WASH UNDER 58.5 bought again smaller at -6 and small at 56 it was a hard fought game last week and just dont think bison are droppin 2 in a row at home .. D should put the squeeze on late because no way coach will try to hand out extra possessions to E-Dub here...
SDSU-23 Should win easy ... and big... but gets alot riskier above 24 and def not 25 w 35-10 a tie or a loser...
MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA OVER 43 MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA UNDER 53 First real middle shot this year.. little heavier on over about 2 to 1 at 43 and 45, over was my plan going in.. if outside the money zone then im rooting it go up.. ND layoff plus question if its Struck or the backup at QB for Mizz here backup not bad... ND's O can be explosive and think if Mizz starts slow that at some point they'll have to go for broke on offense .. really wild swing on the total... some good key numbers in there ... 49 would be a great hit for me...
SACRED HEART+22.5 might end up really needing the extra point and a half... can someone from the forum kick extra points?.. u should walk on over there and start this game... hate to go against Del here but... In Chestnut We Trust... well at least to grind some clock and keep things kinda reasonable...
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +6.5 Hit there and smaller on down to 3.5 where could still be some value but some buyback to +4 might be possible here w sag/massy liking Web by at least that number.. S.ILL maybe suffering a hangover but we havent seen Weber's O do much since week 1 and whatev gunna take the supremely more battle tested team w an offense that im not worried about and maybe questionable D vs some very good offenses and still gotta be fairly well rested .. Saluki O w 800 yds last week, 430 on the ground is woah! Not much confidence in Weber's O to go full exploit here and the mistakes have been horrific and the QB is not cole kelly or schuster or anything close. low score game playing weber ball i like the points. If O opens up a little and i like the W.
JVILLE/DAVIDSON UNDER 48.5 bought at 44, might buy some back at 41 or so.. funky storm might hit yeah but even if not funny feeling davidson doesnt score much here.. 10 to 14 maybe and theyll burn clock doing it.. Jvill shouldnt have much trouble scoring 31-35 maybe more and hope we get a relaxed H2 w easy win.. wet ball maybe helps but could also hurt and does seem like J-Ville has put a few exclamation points on late in some of their games nabbing perhapse some late covers .. hopefully they just take the win and move on in this one...
NDSU -4 NDSU/E.WASH UNDER 58.5 bought again smaller at -6 and small at 56 it was a hard fought game last week and just dont think bison are droppin 2 in a row at home .. D should put the squeeze on late because no way coach will try to hand out extra possessions to E-Dub here...
SDSU-23 Should win easy ... and big... but gets alot riskier above 24 and def not 25 w 35-10 a tie or a loser...
MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA OVER 43 MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA UNDER 53 First real middle shot this year.. little heavier on over about 2 to 1 at 43 and 45, over was my plan going in.. if outside the money zone then im rooting it go up.. ND layoff plus question if its Struck or the backup at QB for Mizz here backup not bad... ND's O can be explosive and think if Mizz starts slow that at some point they'll have to go for broke on offense .. really wild swing on the total... some good key numbers in there ... 49 would be a great hit for me...
SACRED HEART+22.5 might end up really needing the extra point and a half... can someone from the forum kick extra points?.. u should walk on over there and start this game... hate to go against Del here but... In Chestnut We Trust... well at least to grind some clock and keep things kinda reasonable...
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +6.5 Hit there and smaller on down to 3.5 where could still be some value but some buyback to +4 might be possible here w sag/massy liking Web by at least that number.. S.ILL maybe suffering a hangover but we havent seen Weber's O do much since week 1 and whatev gunna take the supremely more battle tested team w an offense that im not worried about and maybe questionable D vs some very good offenses and still gotta be fairly well rested .. Saluki O w 800 yds last week, 430 on the ground is woah! Not much confidence in Weber's O to go full exploit here and the mistakes have been horrific and the QB is not cole kelly or schuster or anything close. low score game playing weber ball i like the points. If O opens up a little and i like the W.
MONMOUTH+11.5 Grabbed at +13 too but mostly at 11.5 so ill post it there... if we get 14 might have to go again and i think it might just get there at some point.. this could be a terrible draw for SH especially if they do too much dicking around on offense again.. not alot of data points yet on Mouth, but really look like a team that just does everything right and basically everyone back from a good team last year w excellent replacements at RB and QB...Mancuso nothing short of awesome so far... and additions xfers, developed backups etc... plus very dynamic rush w the RB/QB and pass game is solid.. I could see Sam's run D taking alot of their offensive options away, just a much bigger team in the trenches, both sides... that could be the downfall so hoping dynamic run/pass ManQBso can solve a few of those mismatch issues they have up front...
SACRED HEART/DELAWARE UNDER 45.5 Del D is legit top notch but not w tons of TFL's/Sacks really strong pass D.. i think Sac will find some traction w chestnut or keep trying till late in the game if down a bit.. any kind of SH drives should eat up this clock and even if Del or SH land an easy score or two we'll still have plenty of wiggle room to get us into the late rounds where we can expect Del to have an easy enough time draining this clock for us... 31-14 is a winner but i think more likely to be 28-7 here...
VMI/JMU UNDER 49.5 JMU been a good under team and they should be able to take away the VMI run and drain this clock again for us... VMI very proud team/historic run and i think D wont quit till the buzzer here, offense should struggle w out run game being a a significant threat... Now if its lob completions all day to that big WR they got then id.. all bets are off!
MONMOUTH+11.5 Grabbed at +13 too but mostly at 11.5 so ill post it there... if we get 14 might have to go again and i think it might just get there at some point.. this could be a terrible draw for SH especially if they do too much dicking around on offense again.. not alot of data points yet on Mouth, but really look like a team that just does everything right and basically everyone back from a good team last year w excellent replacements at RB and QB...Mancuso nothing short of awesome so far... and additions xfers, developed backups etc... plus very dynamic rush w the RB/QB and pass game is solid.. I could see Sam's run D taking alot of their offensive options away, just a much bigger team in the trenches, both sides... that could be the downfall so hoping dynamic run/pass ManQBso can solve a few of those mismatch issues they have up front...
SACRED HEART/DELAWARE UNDER 45.5 Del D is legit top notch but not w tons of TFL's/Sacks really strong pass D.. i think Sac will find some traction w chestnut or keep trying till late in the game if down a bit.. any kind of SH drives should eat up this clock and even if Del or SH land an easy score or two we'll still have plenty of wiggle room to get us into the late rounds where we can expect Del to have an easy enough time draining this clock for us... 31-14 is a winner but i think more likely to be 28-7 here...
VMI/JMU UNDER 49.5 JMU been a good under team and they should be able to take away the VMI run and drain this clock again for us... VMI very proud team/historic run and i think D wont quit till the buzzer here, offense should struggle w out run game being a a significant threat... Now if its lob completions all day to that big WR they got then id.. all bets are off!
Actually wasnt even gunna post mine if u didnt drop in .. pretty much talking to air the last few weeks... only went 16-4 lw and not even one of those little thumbs up likes ... lol... ok buddy your turn, what u got?....
Actually wasnt even gunna post mine if u didnt drop in .. pretty much talking to air the last few weeks... only went 16-4 lw and not even one of those little thumbs up likes ... lol... ok buddy your turn, what u got?....
Just a mismatch vs davidson .. JVST will be bigger stronger and faster at every position esp in the trenches... for example likely pro TE Trae Berry at 6'7'' 245 blocking down on 6'2 218 freshman DE.. and thats one of just a few guys over 6 feet in the Davidson def 2 deep .. one OL over 300 lbs (barely) .. LB's about 200lb on avg .. I think the models even discount jvill's power rating and sag/massey still have them 25/26 pt favs here .. i assume because of potential rain but tail end of the storm could miss some or all of the game.. JV loss to A.Peay not bad they're a big strong team / good D, jville shut down their explosive playmaking and 40 yds rushing.. but -3 in TO's and penalties 18-125yds killed them.. Davidson best stuff is win vs SD (+3 TO's) who just lost to valpo, close loss to Elon (ranked in top 20 preseason!).. Dav O never truly shut down in the pioneer league and can lul teams to sleep w the option and hit a pass which made them much more potent in conf .. but pass capable option teams only do well when the run works and a 3rd and long pretty kills the drive... if JV rush d plays like they have all year then the lights go out pretty quick and if forced to pass could give JV extra possessions ... fingers xxx'd j'ville doesnt shoot themselves in the foot here.. if not think its a slaughter..
Just a mismatch vs davidson .. JVST will be bigger stronger and faster at every position esp in the trenches... for example likely pro TE Trae Berry at 6'7'' 245 blocking down on 6'2 218 freshman DE.. and thats one of just a few guys over 6 feet in the Davidson def 2 deep .. one OL over 300 lbs (barely) .. LB's about 200lb on avg .. I think the models even discount jvill's power rating and sag/massey still have them 25/26 pt favs here .. i assume because of potential rain but tail end of the storm could miss some or all of the game.. JV loss to A.Peay not bad they're a big strong team / good D, jville shut down their explosive playmaking and 40 yds rushing.. but -3 in TO's and penalties 18-125yds killed them.. Davidson best stuff is win vs SD (+3 TO's) who just lost to valpo, close loss to Elon (ranked in top 20 preseason!).. Dav O never truly shut down in the pioneer league and can lul teams to sleep w the option and hit a pass which made them much more potent in conf .. but pass capable option teams only do well when the run works and a 3rd and long pretty kills the drive... if JV rush d plays like they have all year then the lights go out pretty quick and if forced to pass could give JV extra possessions ... fingers xxx'd j'ville doesnt shoot themselves in the foot here.. if not think its a slaughter..
1 - Thanks for all your input this season, it was a tremendous help and much appreciated
2 - I was going to say "Good luckin the post season" but it doesn't seem like luck has much to do with your play. Research, analysis, and a talent for determining winning edges are the main components, so, instead of "Good luck" I'll simply say, 'Keep up the fine work, and continued success to you in the playoffs."
1 - Thanks for all your input this season, it was a tremendous help and much appreciated
2 - I was going to say "Good luckin the post season" but it doesn't seem like luck has much to do with your play. Research, analysis, and a talent for determining winning edges are the main components, so, instead of "Good luck" I'll simply say, 'Keep up the fine work, and continued success to you in the playoffs."
We're mostly aligned this week. And I take it back about getting wagers locked in "on time" this week; you're still kicking my @ss at "my own game" of playing openers.
My plays this week are:
North Dakota / Missouri State Under 50.5 (2.5u)
JMU / VMI Under 47.5 (Under 1.5u)
Monmouth / Sam Houston State Over 60.5 (1.25u)
Jacksonville State -20.5 (0.75u)
Missouri State +7.5 (0.75u)
NDSU / EWU Under 56.5 (0.75u)
SDSU / Holy Cross Under 45.5 (0.75u)
Sacred Heart / Delaware Over 42 (0.75u)
Southern Illinois +4.5 (0.5u)
South Dakota State -23.5 (0.5u)
Monmouth +12 (0.6u) w/ some buy-back on SHSU -8.5 (0.4u)
We're mostly aligned this week. And I take it back about getting wagers locked in "on time" this week; you're still kicking my @ss at "my own game" of playing openers.
My plays this week are:
North Dakota / Missouri State Under 50.5 (2.5u)
JMU / VMI Under 47.5 (Under 1.5u)
Monmouth / Sam Houston State Over 60.5 (1.25u)
Jacksonville State -20.5 (0.75u)
Missouri State +7.5 (0.75u)
NDSU / EWU Under 56.5 (0.75u)
SDSU / Holy Cross Under 45.5 (0.75u)
Sacred Heart / Delaware Over 42 (0.75u)
Southern Illinois +4.5 (0.5u)
South Dakota State -23.5 (0.5u)
Monmouth +12 (0.6u) w/ some buy-back on SHSU -8.5 (0.4u)
First bet at 11:12 per bol it was a lucky check and all lines already up no idea how long ... yeah 7 same side plus the mizzou st under .. unreal move on that one .. i gotta look at Del/Sac heart again maybe buy back if that can dip under 42, their kicker missing pat's really bothers me... coulda sunk my duqusne/SH over...
EW w best LB injured early vs Idaho thats i think their 2 best out after Ojoh xferred after 3rd or so game .. that Idaho Safety turned QB for a game ran all over them .. Eags w 3fr/3sophs on their DL 2 deep ... think ND FB has a field day up the middle and if they load up the box Watson can burn any of their guys deep or just getting it to him in a little space is deadly ... hopefully get him the ball more than twice this game, dude is unreal ..
First bet at 11:12 per bol it was a lucky check and all lines already up no idea how long ... yeah 7 same side plus the mizzou st under .. unreal move on that one .. i gotta look at Del/Sac heart again maybe buy back if that can dip under 42, their kicker missing pat's really bothers me... coulda sunk my duqusne/SH over...
EW w best LB injured early vs Idaho thats i think their 2 best out after Ojoh xferred after 3rd or so game .. that Idaho Safety turned QB for a game ran all over them .. Eags w 3fr/3sophs on their DL 2 deep ... think ND FB has a field day up the middle and if they load up the box Watson can burn any of their guys deep or just getting it to him in a little space is deadly ... hopefully get him the ball more than twice this game, dude is unreal ..
With you on Sam/Mouth total... even in a monster loss v JMU w no rush to speak of they got 21 ... could be reverting to alot of passing quickly here or could surprise and do something on the ground i suppose .. either way the big 3 WR's all back and Kearney has been solid enough to break into the starting trio w 4th guy very good from ly's squad.. just an abundance of quality there and strong pass really only way anyone's hung tough w Sam's Club this year.. ridin it... and on what planet would #2 seed have picked Monmouth for their first opponent over idk VMI?... Sacred Heart???...Davidson?????? ... lol... even mizz state or SIU i mean there's at least some tape and you know what yer in for... idk Sam should win but man what a terrible draw...
With you on Sam/Mouth total... even in a monster loss v JMU w no rush to speak of they got 21 ... could be reverting to alot of passing quickly here or could surprise and do something on the ground i suppose .. either way the big 3 WR's all back and Kearney has been solid enough to break into the starting trio w 4th guy very good from ly's squad.. just an abundance of quality there and strong pass really only way anyone's hung tough w Sam's Club this year.. ridin it... and on what planet would #2 seed have picked Monmouth for their first opponent over idk VMI?... Sacred Heart???...Davidson?????? ... lol... even mizz state or SIU i mean there's at least some tape and you know what yer in for... idk Sam should win but man what a terrible draw...
JMU touched -13 briefly this morning. Bought a little at that number. All the way to -17/-17.5 now. Wow. Didn't have a chance to post earlier. Really like the Under here. GL today! Just got home, need to start watching.
JMU touched -13 briefly this morning. Bought a little at that number. All the way to -17/-17.5 now. Wow. Didn't have a chance to post earlier. Really like the Under here. GL today! Just got home, need to start watching.
yeah saw it then it launched up right when i saw it.. disaster ending .. had u49.5 was excited for a moment... had the nd/mizz middle too but nd needed an extra td w a minute left.. couple of real stink endings .... hope you are nailing the rest buddy!
yeah saw it then it launched up right when i saw it.. disaster ending .. had u49.5 was excited for a moment... had the nd/mizz middle too but nd needed an extra td w a minute left.. couple of real stink endings .... hope you are nailing the rest buddy!
The North Dakota / Missouri State game had no business going over. I doubled down for another unit at halftime on the Under (U24) with UND having the big lead and knowing they'd play ball control and run the clock 2nd half. 7.35 unit swing overall that I lost. The shanked/partially blocked?? 15 yard punt return TD and the long INT return for a TD both hurt, but still looked like a winner until the meaningless TD run late when just a 1st down ends the game - that was brutal!! Perfect storm to lose that one I guess. I'm still pissed, but I'll get over it.
Had JMU -13 and then added VMI +18.5 about 10 minutes before kickoff, thought I had the middle there. Not much went right today though on the close calls.
The North Dakota / Missouri State game had no business going over. I doubled down for another unit at halftime on the Under (U24) with UND having the big lead and knowing they'd play ball control and run the clock 2nd half. 7.35 unit swing overall that I lost. The shanked/partially blocked?? 15 yard punt return TD and the long INT return for a TD both hurt, but still looked like a winner until the meaningless TD run late when just a 1st down ends the game - that was brutal!! Perfect storm to lose that one I guess. I'm still pissed, but I'll get over it.
Had JMU -13 and then added VMI +18.5 about 10 minutes before kickoff, thought I had the middle there. Not much went right today though on the close calls.
BRIDGE PLAYS NDSU -4 SDSU-23 J'VILLE STATE -21 SACRED HEART+22.5 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +6.5 MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA OVER 43 MONMOUTH/SAM HOU OVER 61 JVILLE/DAVIDSON UNDER 48.5 MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA UNDER 53 NDSU/E.WASH UNDER 58.5
Smaller MONMOUTH+11.5 SAC HEART/DEL UNDER 45.5 WEBER TT UNDER 26 MISSOURI STATE +8 JAMES MADISON -14 VMI/JMU UNDER 49.5
BRIDGE PLAYS NDSU -4 SDSU-23 J'VILLE STATE -21 SACRED HEART+22.5 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +6.5 MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA OVER 43 MONMOUTH/SAM HOU OVER 61 JVILLE/DAVIDSON UNDER 48.5 MIZZ ST/N.DAKOTA UNDER 53 NDSU/E.WASH UNDER 58.5
Smaller MONMOUTH+11.5 SAC HEART/DEL UNDER 45.5 WEBER TT UNDER 26 MISSOURI STATE +8 JAMES MADISON -14 VMI/JMU UNDER 49.5
Great stuff carl yeah i went off the deep end playin every game there but my biggest stuff were the BP spreads and actually had a bit on sh/del under and nailed those big ones .. 6-2 sides overall.. shoulda hit JMU side and under and the nd/mizz middler .. sighhh ... still had a great week
Great stuff carl yeah i went off the deep end playin every game there but my biggest stuff were the BP spreads and actually had a bit on sh/del under and nailed those big ones .. 6-2 sides overall.. shoulda hit JMU side and under and the nd/mizz middler .. sighhh ... still had a great week
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