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College FB Futures

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Posted: #26

I too think they will beat easily cover against Oregon. Let me ask you this though; what is the line limit you would take on OSU to cover against Bowling Green in week 1?  

 
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Posted: #27

That line will probably be 40+...I formerly would give that chalk (5 to 10 years ago), but not anymore...Ohio State will probably cover whatever it is, but in a Covid environment and with a cross country road game against a top 10 team on deck, it would be a pass for me...That plus, all it takes is a lucky long pass against the 3rd teamers from USU to facilitate a BDC.   I think there will be better options in week 1 like Va Tech -21 over Liberty and Ok St -17 over Oregon State.   What are your thoughts?   

 

Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52:

I too think they will beat easily cover against Oregon. Let me ask you this though; what is the line limit you would take on OSU to cover against Bowling Green in week 1?

 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

I appreciate the information...However, I ask rhetorically, who cares if they are not as good as last season...No team, other than perhaps Bama, Georgia, and Clemson has recruited better than Ohio State over the last 5 years.  They have a coach in Day, who is entering his 2nd year, with continuity at the assistant level, and a propensity to run up the score in big games (and any game) and cover ATS.  They have arguably the best or 2nd best QB in the nation, an elite transfer in Sermon.   I look at Ohio State as a team that will simply reload, like Bama and Clemson have done recently.   Granted, one must evaluate the matchups in each and every game.  And we must also factor in the impact of playing games where there will be 20% or less of normal fans in attendance.   And of course, past performance does not necessarily future performance.   However, Ohio State is the undisputed dominate team north of the Mason Dixon Line.   And after last year's close loss to Clemson, they will be hungry going into this season, COVID or not.   The game against Autzen will be a benchmark game for them.    Autzen will not be as loud or as raucous as it normally is on a Saturday in September.     I think Ohio State will make a statement and blow Oregon out of the water in week 2...and cover...Now, let's just hope we don't have a COVID 2nd round, and let's get ready for some football...   Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52: I am an Ohio State fan and will say that Ohio state is NOT going to be as good as they were last year. UNIMAN it the nail on head above. The defense is simply not going to be as dominate as they were last year. I do believe that the offense is going to be better though. OSU needs to replace two on the O-line and that is not going to be an issue. As long as Fields stays healthy they will without a doubt have one of the best if not the best offenses in the country. OSU's biggest concern is how fast their defense can gel, hopefully by the time of Penn State game. I do think OSU will make the playoffs and I give them as great of a chance to win the playoff game as I did last year.

Does a running back, playing for a high octane offensive, in a league not known for defense, who in his best of three years playing football ends up 76th in the nation in total yards, 77th in number of rush attempts, and 60th in yards per carry be called ELITE?????

I just don't get it!

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by undefined:

I too think they will beat easily cover against Oregon. Let me ask you this though; what is the line limit you would take on OSU to cover against Bowling Green in week 1?

 

If you are looking ahead to bet TOSU vs Oregon , I would suggest that you use " caution "

in laying a large number vs BGSU as it appears you are already in love with the Buckeyes.

I try each week to find teams that are likely to offer reasonable value against the books

number. Rarely do I bet the same team 2 weeks in a row as bookmakers tend to make

value that much more difficult to find past Week 1, and TOSU might be tempted to look ahead.

IMO, there are at least 6 other matchups that are likely to offer better value , especially

in a covid enviornment in Week 1. You can use Week 1 to scout the Buckeyes for a

play the following week when you might be more comfortable in laying the points.

I personally do not know what a " safe " number is when you buy the play a month or two

early and then have to contend with Covid risk up until kickoff.

Just a thought .

GL

 
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Posted: #30

He was a 4 star recruit and top 10 HS RB playing in a pass happy offense at OU before he got injured.    If he is anywhere near 100% playing with Fields and the elite OSU offensive line, he will get his yards.   He does not need to be Dobbins to be effective at OSU.  Come on man!  

 

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier: I appreciate the information...However, I ask rhetorically, who cares if they are not as good as last season...No team, other than perhaps Bama, Georgia, and Clemson has recruited better than Ohio State over the last 5 years.  They have a coach in Day, who is entering his 2nd year, with continuity at the assistant level, and a propensity to run up the score in big games (and any game) and cover ATS.  They have arguably the best or 2nd best QB in the nation, an elite transfer in Sermon.   I look at Ohio State as a team that will simply reload, like Bama and Clemson have done recently.   Granted, one must evaluate the matchups in each and every game.  And we must also factor in the impact of playing games where there will be 20% or less of normal fans in attendance.   And of course, past performance does not necessarily future performance.   However, Ohio State is the undisputed dominate team north of the Mason Dixon Line.   And after last year's close loss to Clemson, they will be hungry going into this season, COVID or not.   The game against Autzen will be a benchmark game for them.    Autzen will not be as loud or as raucous as it normally is on a Saturday in September.     I think Ohio State will make a statement and blow Oregon out of the water in week 2...and cover...Now, let's just hope we don't have a COVID 2nd round, and let's get ready for some football...   Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52: I am an Ohio State fan and will say that Ohio state is NOT going to be as good as they were last year. UNIMAN it the nail on head above. The defense is simply not going to be as dominate as they were last year. I do believe that the offense is going to be better though. OSU needs to replace two on the O-line and that is not going to be an issue. As long as Fields stays healthy they will without a doubt have one of the best if not the best offenses in the country. OSU's biggest concern is how fast their defense can gel, hopefully by the time of Penn State game. I do think OSU will make the playoffs and I give them as great of a chance to win the playoff game as I did last year. Does a running back, playing for a high octane offensive, in a league not known for defense, who in his best of three years playing football ends up 76th in the nation in total yards, 77th in number of rush attempts, and 60th in yards per carry be called ELITE????? I just don't get it!

 
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Posted: #31

Time will tell. I see the other thread got removed. How sad.

 
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Posted: #32

How is everyone felling about Michigan at Washington? 

Common line is Michigan -3

-If this game is played I do not see them letting fans in the stadium which would be a huge help for Michigan and their new QB. 

-As a general rule I normally stay away from betting either way in a Michigan game (other than when they play OSU) but the more I look at both teams the more I see Michigan covering this in a fairly low scoring game. 

Thoughts? 

 
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Posted: #33

PJ fleck is poor man's(option 2)(he has coached in the NFL) version of urban Meyer for USC.   I think Minnesota wins West.   Oklahoma...3 years to semi-finals and lose.   I think they break thru and get to championship game but lose there.   to who?  SEC....Florida or Alabama.    Texas will give Oklahoma fits.   Heisman...didn't running back from Oklahoma St. have 2000+ yds last yr?   I don't even know his name, but that would be my value play there.   Others have said, Clemson qb and rb will cancel each other out(I agree).    Vs the NFL or NBA, I think college football and basketball are more about coaches and their systems.   I would be intrigued to see Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley in the NFL.   I was kind of surprised the Cowboys didn't go after him vs hiring Mike McCarthy.    Mike McCarthy will surprise a lot of people with how effective he will be.   Why do I say that?   Bill Belichek said he is one of the best coaches he has ever faced.   That says enough

 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by CFBbettor:

Quote Originally Posted by undefined: I too think they will beat easily cover against Oregon. Let me ask you this though; what is the line limit you would take on OSU to cover against Bowling Green in week 1?   If you are looking ahead to bet TOSU vs Oregon , I would suggest that you use " caution " in laying a large number vs BGSU as it appears you are already in love with the Buckeyes. I try each week to find teams that are likely to offer reasonable value against the books number. Rarely do I bet the same team 2 weeks in a row as bookmakers tend to make value that much more difficult to find past Week 1, and TOSU might be tempted to look ahead. IMO, there are at least 6 other matchups that are likely to offer better value , especially in a covid enviornment in Week 1. You can use Week 1 to scout the Buckeyes for a play the following week when you might be more comfortable in laying the points. I personally do not know what a " safe " number is when you buy the play a month or two early and then have to contend with Covid risk up until kickoff. Just a thought . GL

 

What are some of your plays you see value in for week 1 thus far? 

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