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College FB Futures

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Posted: #1

With everyone at home kind of surprised at the lack of activity here, so I will take a shot if for nothing else to give us something to talk about while we hope and pray the season starts on time. 

Thought 1: 

ND-16.5 against Navy seems like an absolute gimmie. I will bet this easily up to 20.5 or even 21. I think ND will beat them worse than last year even playing in Ireland.

Thought 2: 

Heisman Value

-Justin fields is my pick but there is not too much value with him. I am also worried about him getting hurt and missing a game or two this season. (I am a die-hard Bucks fan.) If Field can go injury free I think he is the obvious choice.

-I do not think Lawrence will get it nor will Etienne. They will both have good seasons but they will take each other out in terms of getting the needed stats. 

-The best value for me is Sam Ehlinger which can still be got for +2500. I really do think they can win the LSU game. OU will be tough but I really do think this will be a new year’s 6 team. I know no one is ready to believe Texas will be anything but a disappointment but they return just about their entire D and a ton on offense as well. I believe the coaching changes will light a fire under them and they could very easily be a 1 loss team. (OU in regular season or in Big 12 championship.)  

-Call me crazy but it seems that a running back is about due for the Heisman. Chubba is great but I do not think OSU will make the conference championship which could take him out of the picture. The best bet for running back with a ton of value could be Harris (bama). He is going to be a work horse this year as Alabama will be a much more run focused team.

-Dark Horse Pick

Sean Clifford (Penn State) I really think Penn State is the only team that has a chance in the big 10 to pull the upset on OSU. If they do, Penn could easily be undefeated going into the conference championship. He may have the best tight end in football and has some good receivers back. Their new OC loves to sling it and I can see him putting up some big numbers.

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Posted: #2

I actually like Texas & Penn State as futures bets but i just cant see them beating out Clemson or Alabama in a national championship game.  You would think that those two teams will be there with most likely Ohio State.  Other teams i like as well are Florida and Oregon.  Really is only 8-10 teams that could make the top 4 and really only 2-3 teams that can win it all.  So a 24/1 Oregon team looks good, but can they really beat a Bama or Clemson in title game? probably not....

 
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Posted: #3

I agree 100% that no team other than Bama, Clemson, or OSU will win it this year. I would only bet on those three teams. If I had to bet another with value I would have to go with Florida and Penn State as a second. Oregon will be good especially on defense but I am just not sold on them. I think they lose to OSU and maybe by 14 or 27. I also think USC has a very good shot to beat them if not in the regular season in the condense championship as I think both teams will be there. 

I will bet on the value of Texas and penn state to make the playoffs though as my two top teams. I can only see Penn and Texas each losing one game, but can also see them running the table in the regular season easier than oregan and Florida. 

 
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Posted: #4

peace_5

 
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Posted: #5

peace_5

 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52:

I agree 100% that no team other than Bama, Clemson, or OSU will win it this year. I would only bet on those three teams. If I had to bet another with value I would have to go with Florida and Penn State as a second. Oregon will be good especially on defense but I am just not sold on them. I think they lose to OSU and maybe by 14 or 27. I also think USC has a very good shot to beat them if not in the regular season in the condense championship as I think both teams will be there. I will bet on the value of Texas and penn state to make the playoffs though as my two top teams. I can only see Penn and Texas each losing one game, but can also see them running the table in the regular season easier than oregan and Florida.

 

You initially said you liked Florida with Penn State as dark horses for the playoff, then you switched to Texas later in your post.  Which team you like Florida or Texas or both for a slot at the playoff...My Longhorns have almost a completely new coaching staff, sparking Herman and Giles.    Do you think that will factor in your perspective?   

 
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Posted: #7

After further review I am altering my playoff picks for this year: 

Before my prediction was: Clemson, Alabama, TOSU, Texas

I am officially swapping Texas for Florida. 

The way i see it is this: I think Texas is going to be damn good this year. I really so think they beat LSU and then they split one with OU as I think they will both be in the Big 12 Championship.

Now looking closer at Florida their toughest game IMO is Georgia who they get at home. I think they beat Georgia. (Sorry but I think Newman is not going to be superstar at Georgia that many think he will be. He may be a decent runner in the ACC, but I dont think that will be the case in the SEC.) Anyways, I see a Florida vs Bama SEC game that Bama wins. So does a 1 loss Florida make it over a 1 loss Texas? I think they do.

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52: I agree 100% that no team other than Bama, Clemson, or OSU will win it this year. I would only bet on those three teams. If I had to bet another with value I would have to go with Florida and Penn State as a second. Oregon will be good especially on defense but I am just not sold on them. I think they lose to OSU and maybe by 14 or 27. I also think USC has a very good shot to beat them if not in the regular season in the condense championship as I think both teams will be there. I will bet on the value of Texas and penn state to make the playoffs though as my two top teams. I can only see Penn and Texas each losing one game, but can also see them running the table in the regular season easier than oregan and Florida.   You initially said you liked Florida with Penn State as dark horses for the playoff, then you switched to Texas later in your post.  Which team you like Florida or Texas or both for a slot at the playoff...My Longhorns have almost a completely new coaching staff, sparking Herman and Giles.    Do you think that will factor in your perspective?

I really like Texas this year and when we find out when the season will be starting I will for sure be betting on Sam Ehlinger as my Heisman pick along with a small amount on Harris (Bama). But looking more into Florida I think their only loss will be in the SEC championship. I do not think anyone is beating Bama in the SEC this year, as I think the only team that will beat them is OSU. 

 
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Posted: #9

.My Longhorns have almost a completely new coaching staff, sparking Herman and Giles.    Do you think that will factor in your perspective?[/Quote]

Sorry I forgot this point. No, I think these changes will do nothing but help the Longhorns. They are bringing in some great coaches and I think this will light as fire under them.  

 
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Posted: #10

Am I seeing it right that Phil Steele isn't releasing his preview until August this year? Wonder if it's coronavirus related? 

 

For the Penn St future... I think the game @ Michigan is a guaranteed L.  They haven't played well in that stadium, revenge factor, should be a much better Michigan D at every level & Patterson leaving is addition by subtraction at the QB position imo. Big question mark will be losing nearly the entire OL to the NFL, good news is they've recruited well here, just wonder how fast a new unit gels with limited prep time.  Early line -2 is one of my favorite GOY lines early on. Other than that, Ohio St is significantly better but at least they catch the buckeyes at home.  Then they have Iowa sandwiched in between UM/OSU games which is never easy.  Think they lose 2 of 3 in that stretch. 

While I'm ripping on Shea Patterson.. the list of receivers he threw to in college is unreal.  Van Jefferson, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Nico Collins, DPJ, Tarik Black, among others. Not to mention pretty much his entire OL from 2019 will be NFL draft picks.  Awful deep ball accuracy. 

 

Always like Texas & hope they truly take that next step in 2020.  Florida lost quite a bit didn't they? One team I like again is Minnesota. I think offensive line is the most important group in college football & they return everyone from a really really good unit in 2019.  Tanner Morgan is a solid QB.  I haven't looked at what they're losing on defense, but the way the schedule sets up they could go undefeated. B2B games @ wisconsin and home vs Michigan in October will be a big test.  For Heisman, give me Sam Howell.

 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by HockeyNight11:

Am I seeing it right that Phil Steele isn't releasing his preview until August this year? Wonder if it's coronavirus related?    For the Penn St future... I think the game @ Michigan is a guaranteed L.  They haven't played well in that stadium, revenge factor, should be a much better Michigan D at every level & Patterson leaving is addition by subtraction at the QB position imo. Big question mark will be losing nearly the entire OL to the NFL, good news is they've recruited well here, just wonder how fast a new unit gels with limited prep time.  Early line -2 is one of my favorite GOY lines early on. Other than that, Ohio St is significantly better but at least they catch the buckeyes at home.  Then they have Iowa sandwiched in between UM/OSU games which is never easy.  Think they lose 2 of 3 in that stretch.  While I'm ripping on Shea Patterson.. the list of receivers he threw to in college is unreal.  Van Jefferson, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Nico Collins, DPJ, Tarik Black, among others. Not to mention pretty much his entire OL from 2019 will be NFL draft picks.  Awful deep ball accuracy.    Always like Texas & hope they truly take that next step in 2020.  Florida lost quite a bit didn't they? One team I like again is Minnesota. I think offensive line is the most important group in college football & they return everyone from a really really good unit in 2019.  Tanner Morgan is a solid QB.  I haven't looked at what they're losing on defense, but the way the schedule sets up they could go undefeated. B2B games @ wisconsin and home vs Michigan in October will be a big test.  For Heisman, give me Sam Howell.

 

I just disagree with the Michigan game. I am taking +2 all day with Penn State on the road. Just can never take Michigan 'revenge' games seriously as of late. 

I agree 100% with you on Minnesota. I like them to beat Wisconsin in a close overtime game and win the Western division. 

As far as Sam Howell for Heisman I just dont think they will have enough wins playing teams like UCF, Auburn, Miami, VT, and Virginia to make a case for Howell to win the Heisman. I just think Ehlinger and Trask will be in a much better position for the award in terms of team wins as that is def part of the equation.     

 

 
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Posted: #12

Gators and Ducks

-Gators toughest game will be the world’s largest cocktail party vs georgia, nuetral site. They win that and very well could go undefeated until SECCG.  If they don’t win that, they need georgia to lose 2 games which could happen but could be tough.

-Ducks could very well upset Ohio State in early September.  The ducks are LOADED on d and playing at home, most likely at night and they may spring the upset.  If they do beat OSU, they potentially can lose 1 game at somepoint.  Fields  is good, but he played nobody last year except a good clemson team.  

Lastly

-Texas A&M may very well go into the Bama game undefeated (7-0).  Could they be this years LSU????  I had lsu pegged as 25/1 last year and backed off because i said they can’t go to bama and beat them, well i was wrong and the rest was history.....

 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by young1jesus:

 Lastly -Texas A&M may very well go into the Bama game undefeated (7-0).  Could they be this years LSU????  I had lsu pegged as 25/1 last year and backed off because i said they can’t go to bama and beat them, well i was wrong and the rest was history.....

I like A&M too, good amount of upperclassmen and experience also a veteran coach who's not going to be in awe of his direct competition LSU and Bama. I look for them to take a step forward into becoming a team to deal with in the SEC this year also.

 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by OddShaad:

Quote Originally Posted by young1jesus:  Lastly -Texas A&M may very well go into the Bama game undefeated (7-0).  Could they be this years LSU????  I had lsu pegged as 25/1 last year and backed off because i said they can’t go to bama and beat them, well i was wrong and the rest was history..... I like A&M too, good amount of upperclassmen and experience also a veteran coach who's not going to be in awe of his direct competition LSU and Bama. I look for them to take a step forward into becoming a team to deal with in the SEC this year also.

I also like A&M a lot this year. I also agree that they could very easily be 7-0 going to Bama. I dont like them to beat Bama though. I just think Bama rolls the SEC this year and I really like a Bama vs Florida SEC Championship game between two unbeaten teams. If this is the case and OSU, Clemson, and the winner of the SEC Championship are the only undefeated teams, I think the loser of that game will get the nod as the other playoff team assuming its not a blowout over any other 1 loss team. 

 
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Posted: #15

an_lightthumbs_up

 
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Posted: #16

Another thought: 

Lets assume that Alabama goes undefeated this regular season and win the SEC conference championship, which I believe will be the case. Does anyone see Najee Harris as a top Heisman option? I think he has to be being the workhorse he will be this season. 

 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52:

Another thought:  Lets assume that Alabama goes undefeated this regular season and win the SEC conference championship, which I believe will be the case. Does anyone see Najee Harris as a top Heisman option? I think he has to be being the workhorse he will be this season.

I forgot to add that Alabama is also returning 4 of their 5 OL from last season. I am seeing a huge season for Harris. AT +5000 and even +6000 Heisman odds, I will def be throwing a hundo on him to win. Seems that a running back is about due again also. 

The other 2 future bets i will be throwing on Heisman picks along with Harris is Sam Ehlinger at +2500. Will prob throw $150 on him. Also will throw small fun bet on Sean Clifford (Penn State) who is still at +10000 at some places. Thinking a dumb $25 bet. Watched this kid play a lot in HS and have to cheer for him. Also think Penn State will only lose 1 game at most this year. 

I will not be placing any of these until we find out a little more what will be happening this season. Is anyone one making future bets right now on football with all uncertainty? 

 
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Posted: #18

This is going to be an interesting year... I typically put in about 100 hrs of research into the upcoming season CFB season, however this year only a handful of teams had any spring practices, and none had a full camp or spring game... The spring is a great time to learn about each program, because not only do you get a chance to see back up QB's like Oregon's Tyler Shough, but you also get to check out freshman early enrollee's.

 

This year I've put in only a fraction of the work, just bc of the amount of time it takes there was no way I was gonna put in that much work with so much uncertainty

 
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Posted: #19

There;s a handful of value bets, I've had my eye on...

 

NFL Bears starting QB week 1:  Trubisky +220

ACC Coastal champions: Pitt +1200 

Mahomes MVP +450

 
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Posted: #20

Ohio States defensive will be worse this year without Hafley at DC. Coombs is ok but no Hafley. 

Running game will be less too. It's all on Fields shoulders.

 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Ohio States defensive will be worse this year without Hafley at DC. Coombs is ok but no Hafley.  Running game will be less too. It's all on Fields shoulders.
I

 

I'm not sure what you're referring too, but you could def make the argument, that Ohio State's offense will be better this year than they were last season.  They return their QB, who's in his 2nd year, their Big 10 Center, and Tackles, as well as All American Guard.  The oline is experienced and the two spots they're replacing have multiple former 5 star recruits ready to fill the role.  The WR's are much better than they were a year ago (Olave and Garrett Wilson are both special)  They also have two big experienced Tight ends.  As far as the running game falling off, they did add one of the top RB's in CFB' w/ OU transfer Trey Sermon...

 

I expect the Buckeyes offense to be better than they were last year.  I'm not as confident in their defense.

 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN: Ohio States defensive will be worse this year without Hafley at DC. Coombs is ok but no Hafley.  Running game will be less too. It's all on Fields shoulders. I   I'm not sure what you're referring too, but you could def make the argument, that Ohio State's offense will be better this year than they were last season.  They return their QB, who's in his 2nd year, their Big 10 Center, and Tackles, as well as All American Guard.  The oline is experienced and the two spots they're replacing have multiple former 5 star recruits ready to fill the role.  The WR's are much better than they were a year ago (Olave and Garrett Wilson are both special)  They also have two big experienced Tight ends.  As far as the running game falling off, they did add one of the top RB's in CFB' w/ OU transfer Trey Sermon...   I expect the Buckeyes offense to be better than they were last year.  I'm not as confident in their defense.

 

You could make the argument but I believe it's wrong. And Trey Sermon is no "top RB in CFB, IMO. 

Ohio State was a very well balanced team in 2019. Dobbins was the reason for it. In the BIG GAMES, Penn St, Michigan, Wisc. at championship, and Clemson, Dobbins had 157, 211, 172, and 174 yards rushing. Sermon had no 100 yard games in 2019 and in 2018 his four 100 yd games were against Big 12 foes and Army. If you look at rush yards per attempt defense in 2019 you will find nine Big10 teams before you find the first BIG12 team with Texas at #53. Sermon had no yardage or carries against Texas last year, did have a solo tackle, must have been banged up. Year before he had 54 yds vs Texas.

So what I am saying is Ohio State has lost a lot of balance that they enjoyed last year. And last year Fields went down a few times even though he wasn't the focal point. Master Teague healthy could never match Dobbins. Now everybody raves Sermon is here, RB position OK now. HA! This guy rarely gets over 15 carries, misses games with injuries, and was never OU's leading rusher. And that's in the defenseless BIG12. So it is up to Fields and opponents know this. The two-headed monster now gone, one focal point. Much harder for Buckeyes this year I say. And I predict no playoff wins.

 
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Posted: #23

I'm not saying the Buckeyes will not have a potent offense this year. No doubt they have the players to put up points. What I am saying is the running game should take a step back and the passing game will have to step up more, and they have the players for a fantastic passing game. Fields is going to have to run more IMO to help the running game. So compared to the 2019 team;

Running game--less productive

Passing game--more productive

O-line--more or equal production

QB--more or equal production from Fields

defense; OSU leapfrogged from ranking 71st in total defense in 2018 to #1 in 2019. IMO, Hafley a very big reason why, now he is gone. 53% of the tackles for loss must now be replaced. I expect the defense to not produce as the 2019 unit did.

So, take a step back on defense, lose a very potent running attack, and depend more from your QB all leads me to believe they will not be better than 2019.

 
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Posted: #24

I am an Ohio State fan and will say that Ohio state is NOT going to be as good as they were last year. UNIMAN it the nail on head above. The defense is simply not going to be as dominate as they were last year. I do believe that the offense is going to be better though. OSU needs to replace two on the O-line and that is not going to be an issue. As long as Fields stays healthy they will without a doubt have one of the best if not the best offenses in the country. OSU's biggest concern is how fast their defense can gel, hopefully by the time of Penn State game. I do think OSU will make the playoffs and I give them as great of a chance to win the playoff game as I did last year.   

 
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Posted: #25

I appreciate the information...However, I ask rhetorically, who cares if they are not as good as last season...No team, other than perhaps Bama, Georgia, and Clemson has recruited better than Ohio State over the last 5 years.  They have a coach in Day, who is entering his 2nd year, with continuity at the assistant level, and a propensity to run up the score in big games (and any game) and cover ATS.  They have arguably the best or 2nd best QB in the nation, an elite transfer in Sermon.   I look at Ohio State as a team that will simply reload, like Bama and Clemson have done recently.   Granted, one must evaluate the matchups in each and every game.  And we must also factor in the impact of playing games where there will be 20% or less of normal fans in attendance.   And of course, past performance does not necessarily future performance.   However, Ohio State is the undisputed dominate team north of the Mason Dixon Line.   And after last year's close loss to Clemson, they will be hungry going into this season, COVID or not.   The game against Autzen will be a benchmark game for them.    Autzen will not be as loud or as raucous as it normally is on a Saturday in September.     I think Ohio State will make a statement and blow Oregon out of the water in week 2...and cover...Now, let's just hope we don't have a COVID 2nd round, and let's get ready for some football...

 

Quote Originally Posted by Aldan52:

I am an Ohio State fan and will say that Ohio state is NOT going to be as good as they were last year. UNIMAN it the nail on head above. The defense is simply not going to be as dominate as they were last year. I do believe that the offense is going to be better though. OSU needs to replace two on the O-line and that is not going to be an issue. As long as Fields stays healthy they will without a doubt have one of the best if not the best offenses in the country. OSU's biggest concern is how fast their defense can gel, hopefully by the time of Penn State game. I do think OSU will make the playoffs and I give them as great of a chance to win the playoff game as I did last year.

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