Cincy at Hawaii

Good insight, HawaiiGuy

 

HG- looks like a smokin to me no disrespect but Hawaii Fu@#ing sucks ass... I took Hawaii and i couldnt believe how shitty they were against the worst school in thw World... At -7 is  LARGE

BOL in all your pics

a brawl in 2002 impacting this gameyeah other than new coaches and players who were 12 and could care less other than a bunch of ex players and drunk fans - scary stuff playing in Hawaii, somebody might get hit in the head with a lei

 

lei the points

I'll be getting lei'd by all the cinci hos after this cover

thanks for the info hawaiiguy

is Cincy gonna beef with the Hawaii people again? What idiots (Cinci)!!

Interesting read/write-up from Bob.

 

Cincinnati has already wrapped up a BCS Bowl game by winning the Big East, so it may be tough for the Bearcats to see this as anything other than a vacation. Teams that play their last regular season game of the season in Hawaii are just 11-22 ATS as favorites in that game, including 2-12 ATS if they played the previous week and Hawaii is a .500 team or better, as is the case this in this game. In addition to the natural tendency to take things easy on the Island, the Bearcats also apply to a very negative 18-77-3 ATS road letdown situation while Hawaii applies to a 189-87-6 ATS home momentum situation. The Warriors have thrived since Greg Alexander took over at quarterback in week 9 against Nevada, going 4-1 straight up in those games. Aside from being better on a yards per pass play basis than the other Hawaii quarterbacks, Alexander also has thrown just 1 interception in those 5 games and has thrown just 3 picks for the season on 164 pass attempts (he threw 2 in the opener against Florida in relief). The other Hawaii quarterbacks have combined to throw 17 interceptions on 240 pass attempts, which is why Hawaii struggled the first half of the season despite being a pretty good team from the line of scrimmage. Hawaii is 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Alexander at the helm and the Warriors are average defensively. That’s not great, but it’s probably good enough to compete with a less than focused Cincinnati team. The only problem with this game is that my math model favors Cincy by 10 points if they are focused and play their normal game, so I will not make Hawaii a Best Bets even with all the strong technical indicators. I’ll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’d take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more.

 

 

Hawaii is 7-5 on their cupcake schedule. How's the QB situation looking at Cinci?

 

Keep in mind most of the number stated above were prior to the Brian Kelley era.  Kind of like saying Bowling Green has been bad for the last ten years on a whole, which would be a true but skewed statement (Won around 80% of their games while Urban Myer was there)

 

Cinci's DEFENSE is what makes the difference in this one, also Cinci's 2 best WR's would be #1 and #2 on this Hawaii team.

UC rolls good prediction.  UC defense is really tough and their offense is also pretty good.

Thanks Hawaiiguy,

Good writeup!

Defense and Special team will win it for  Cincy.  

Hawaii..... is probably the best team in Hawaii...

lmao.

Cincy is one of my picks this week.  I dont think it will be a blowout but I dont think Cincy will just lay down either.  At -7.5 Ive got Cincy!

 

 

 

 

Aloha Guy,

 

I live in hawaii and I will bet big for Cin.  Hawaii is too bad team and they are lucky to won the 7 games.

 

Believe me...take CIN....Big   

I am wondering what Hawaii and Cincy team some of you are looking at here??  This is not the same high flying Warrior team of a couple years ago where scores could be tied 3-3 at half and then the game goes over the 77 point total!!  As well, this is not the same Cinci team that was here in 2002 - Cinci has made a believer out of me by winning some tough games this year - they traded blows with the Sooners for 2 1/2 quarters as well....even though they already have the BCS bid locked up, I am rolling with the Bearcats here....I dont even care that it may look "too good" - fuck it..this time it is real...Bearcats by 17-20 here imo...

Hate to admit this being a warriors fan, but if the bearcats bring there game to Aloha Stadium, we are in for a long night.  We will get crushed.  The boys knew they had to win last week to make it to the bowl game.  It has been planted in there heads over a month ago that they have no chance for this game.  There is absolutely no inspiration for them to try and win this game.  Even coach mac, from listening to his interviews, knows they are in for a long night.  Good luck boys but:

 

Bearcats big for me as well

cincinnati is the 13 ranked team in NCAA. what rank is hawaii. i born, raised and live in hawaii. i love the Warriors, but they are gonna get smashed on sat.