EPIC RIDE w 3 games to go.... here's some pre line strategy ...
JMU/SAM .. SAG w SAM-2.2 Massy SAM-1.5 Tot 48.5.. check couple key injuries on sam's DL.. Sam still able to get it done vs the run pretty much all day, ndsu st i knew would be an advantage but directly creating 17 of points was really not expected.. Sam's dicking around has them playing w fire but the key matchup vs JMU is same as vs Bizon... stop the run, get em into 3rd and long, see if qb can extend the drive... think Sam wins that battle and puts us in +EV at under a FG ... bet on Sam lives and dies by not getting PI's or other dumb penalties or losing the TO battle... Dukes fg kicker is top notch and fingers xx'd they dont also get free points on ST... SAM and lean under 48.5 ..
DEL/SDSU ... SAG w Jacks -9.5, Massy w Jacks -10.5 .. big tamale is injury to QB henderson.. non-throwing shoulder...still played .. trust the d.. looking for +10 or more
EPIC RIDE w 3 games to go.... here's some pre line strategy ...
JMU/SAM .. SAG w SAM-2.2 Massy SAM-1.5 Tot 48.5.. check couple key injuries on sam's DL.. Sam still able to get it done vs the run pretty much all day, ndsu st i knew would be an advantage but directly creating 17 of points was really not expected.. Sam's dicking around has them playing w fire but the key matchup vs JMU is same as vs Bizon... stop the run, get em into 3rd and long, see if qb can extend the drive... think Sam wins that battle and puts us in +EV at under a FG ... bet on Sam lives and dies by not getting PI's or other dumb penalties or losing the TO battle... Dukes fg kicker is top notch and fingers xx'd they dont also get free points on ST... SAM and lean under 48.5 ..
DEL/SDSU ... SAG w Jacks -9.5, Massy w Jacks -10.5 .. big tamale is injury to QB henderson.. non-throwing shoulder...still played .. trust the d.. looking for +10 or more
THX Carl, yeah wild ride .. and you know surprisingly all the early line grabbing really not a major contributor in the W-L record.. ended up mattering on a handful of plays that couldnt have just been had on the same team after they settled .. probably saved me more heartburn than anything... just straight up game of pick the winner and did good all year 121-80 on all picks 106-66 on the BP's and smaller stuff.....
All that said i like where the lines came out this week more than where they ended up lol ... we'll see ... think books found the bottom w JMU +3 think that ends close to a pick'em.. Del about +8 seems right if no QB issues maybe dips to 7.. i mean the Dis that good and henderson hit >60% passing on bum non throw shoulder, ran a few more times... backup even 2/2 landed a couple beauties.... SD clear weakness vs a decent pass, lost to ND, almost tanked last night.. lucky win really.. and they won round 1 when S.ill between QB's doing a tryout pass was nill in that one... woulda been a slaughter again if Salukis couldnt pass the ball... Easy to see why Jacks dominant vs ret of MV but coulda realistically been 3-3 in conf w out last drive heroics, 3-4 if add last night... Del D should keep it close and think both gotta open up the pass in this one .. gunna look for a Del TT over.. could be 17 ..
THX Carl, yeah wild ride .. and you know surprisingly all the early line grabbing really not a major contributor in the W-L record.. ended up mattering on a handful of plays that couldnt have just been had on the same team after they settled .. probably saved me more heartburn than anything... just straight up game of pick the winner and did good all year 121-80 on all picks 106-66 on the BP's and smaller stuff.....
All that said i like where the lines came out this week more than where they ended up lol ... we'll see ... think books found the bottom w JMU +3 think that ends close to a pick'em.. Del about +8 seems right if no QB issues maybe dips to 7.. i mean the Dis that good and henderson hit >60% passing on bum non throw shoulder, ran a few more times... backup even 2/2 landed a couple beauties.... SD clear weakness vs a decent pass, lost to ND, almost tanked last night.. lucky win really.. and they won round 1 when S.ill between QB's doing a tryout pass was nill in that one... woulda been a slaughter again if Salukis couldnt pass the ball... Easy to see why Jacks dominant vs ret of MV but coulda realistically been 3-3 in conf w out last drive heroics, 3-4 if add last night... Del D should keep it close and think both gotta open up the pass in this one .. gunna look for a Del TT over.. could be 17 ..
SAM HOUSTON +4.5 DELAWARE +10.5 DELAWARE TT OVER 14.5
Smaller
SAM/JMU UNDER 51 JMU TT UNDER 21 DEL/SDSU OVER 35 JMU +3 .. some buy back
Welp, think my work here is done.. maybe buyback on SAM/JMU if total dips to 44.5, seems unlikely, would buy back some more JMU at +3.5, also seems unlikely .. buyback on SDSU at +7 lol .. DELAWARE TILL WE DIE!!! ...seeya'all saturday!!!
SAM HOUSTON +4.5 DELAWARE +10.5 DELAWARE TT OVER 14.5
Smaller
SAM/JMU UNDER 51 JMU TT UNDER 21 DEL/SDSU OVER 35 JMU +3 .. some buy back
Welp, think my work here is done.. maybe buyback on SAM/JMU if total dips to 44.5, seems unlikely, would buy back some more JMU at +3.5, also seems unlikely .. buyback on SDSU at +7 lol .. DELAWARE TILL WE DIE!!! ...seeya'all saturday!!!
thinking del might go back up they were a little dinged up after last game .. not sure if we see 10 again but 8.5 is a good number w 28-20, 13-21 winners, both very possible combos ... jmu already on the move so maybe see SAM +3 again at some point ..
thinking del might go back up they were a little dinged up after last game .. not sure if we see 10 again but 8.5 is a good number w 28-20, 13-21 winners, both very possible combos ... jmu already on the move so maybe see SAM +3 again at some point ..
would go bigger but we're capped at smaller limit at BAS which is my only out .. even w the little more juice on the quarter plays this one feels like a steal unless im wildly off base in assessing these teams or some other factor that likely lands jacks an early TD .. SDSU needs a Q1 TD and may only have 1 or 2 possessions w time to do that while also needing to keep Del out of the endzone... a pretty tall order in my view.. could happen of course but nobody has pushed the Del D around yet, we've seen salukis and ND do it to the jacks.. common denominator is a threatening pass game and Del pass game + henderson's scramble ability could prove to be a real advantage .. also up against the clock w both teams ~60% rush and often taking the playclock below 10 seconds.. so... we'll see...
would go bigger but we're capped at smaller limit at BAS which is my only out .. even w the little more juice on the quarter plays this one feels like a steal unless im wildly off base in assessing these teams or some other factor that likely lands jacks an early TD .. SDSU needs a Q1 TD and may only have 1 or 2 possessions w time to do that while also needing to keep Del out of the endzone... a pretty tall order in my view.. could happen of course but nobody has pushed the Del D around yet, we've seen salukis and ND do it to the jacks.. common denominator is a threatening pass game and Del pass game + henderson's scramble ability could prove to be a real advantage .. also up against the clock w both teams ~60% rush and often taking the playclock below 10 seconds.. so... we'll see...
Well heck I was waiting this morning for a better number on Delaware but it’s actually dropped to 7 rather than 7.5. would you take that 7 at this point or wait around a couple hours
Well heck I was waiting this morning for a better number on Delaware but it’s actually dropped to 7 rather than 7.5. would you take that 7 at this point or wait around a couple hours
dude it was 8.5 yesterday lol... yeah take it or fun at 7 if you need action... try to get the best odds you can ... i see +4 for H1 -105.. might be the best deal right now... or team total 14.5+100 or 7 for H1 also might work... the best deal this week was DEL+3.5 for Q1 but thats long gone.. idk your call just would say dont buy hooks or otherwise pay extra juice ..
dude it was 8.5 yesterday lol... yeah take it or fun at 7 if you need action... try to get the best odds you can ... i see +4 for H1 -105.. might be the best deal right now... or team total 14.5+100 or 7 for H1 also might work... the best deal this week was DEL+3.5 for Q1 but thats long gone.. idk your call just would say dont buy hooks or otherwise pay extra juice ..
Yeah I shoulda been paying attention yesterday. Hopefully I can get that 4 in the first half. Bookmaker don’t yet have the half lines up yet but I’ll be watching. Thanks bud
Yeah I shoulda been paying attention yesterday. Hopefully I can get that 4 in the first half. Bookmaker don’t yet have the half lines up yet but I’ll be watching. Thanks bud
I’ll be playing the same sides you’ve got regardless the number. I don’t bet big money so if I get a bad number and lose it’s not the end of the world but I sure do enjoy a good winner
I’ll be playing the same sides you’ve got regardless the number. I don’t bet big money so if I get a bad number and lose it’s not the end of the world but I sure do enjoy a good winner
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