Just a reminder that OU and Texas aren't shutting down and heading off to the SEC just yet. Despite the low odds I do like Texas chances a little better than previous seasons. The Horns have high potential at the skill positions, but are going to need to improve a BUNCH on the offensive line to overtake OU and win the conference. If they do improve up front, it's going to get interesting in Sarkasian's second season. Under my ATS system, I expect Texas to be a good cover team this year despite having a target on their backs with their imminent departure (2023 or 2024?). With my Sooners, I think it will take some time for the offense to come together under a new coach/QB/system. Venables uses a rather complicated defensive scheme, so they could get off to a bit of a scattershot start with missed coverages, players out of position etc. But we are going to see a much different OU defense than we have seen for the last few years. I think Venables is going to quickly end that "soft on defense" moniker that OU has deservedly earned the last few years under Riley. I still think with their overall talent and coaching, OU is the team to beat in the Big 12. But despite the unbelievable excitement surrounding this 'new" OU team (75,000 fans at the spring game!), there are still just enough questions surrounding the team that will keep me from making a play on 7/4.
Just a reminder that OU and Texas aren't shutting down and heading off to the SEC just yet. Despite the low odds I do like Texas chances a little better than previous seasons. The Horns have high potential at the skill positions, but are going to need to improve a BUNCH on the offensive line to overtake OU and win the conference. If they do improve up front, it's going to get interesting in Sarkasian's second season. Under my ATS system, I expect Texas to be a good cover team this year despite having a target on their backs with their imminent departure (2023 or 2024?). With my Sooners, I think it will take some time for the offense to come together under a new coach/QB/system. Venables uses a rather complicated defensive scheme, so they could get off to a bit of a scattershot start with missed coverages, players out of position etc. But we are going to see a much different OU defense than we have seen for the last few years. I think Venables is going to quickly end that "soft on defense" moniker that OU has deservedly earned the last few years under Riley. I still think with their overall talent and coaching, OU is the team to beat in the Big 12. But despite the unbelievable excitement surrounding this 'new" OU team (75,000 fans at the spring game!), there are still just enough questions surrounding the team that will keep me from making a play on 7/4.
Great stuff DOC .. yeah odds so low for conf I can't get on board .. my hope for OU is we see them blow the doors off the first few plus nebraska and there's just no way they can cover a game after that .. and yer right D could be technically better but very tough to replace the guys from last year so don't think it happens right away .. expecting mass shootings every game ..
I really don't hate the idea of taking Baylor again, Bohanan just hit the bricks because the other guy asserted himself as the alpha QB apparently and folks down in waco lookin for Grimes to light more of a fire under that offense this year I think it could happen .. really wouldn't bet against Dave Aranda getting a stout D together again even if it appears gutted, he and Grimes total alchemists over there ..
Just not much else to sink the teeth into tho .. seems like maybe a down year for what is usually a pretty rough and rugged B12 slate for all these teams .. Kitley going to T-Tech could be fun but unlikely to be much more than that .. never count out Campbell but after 3 years of mass ret production we'll see what lands .. Fan Duel got the RSW's up for B12 and the PAC .. unfortunately left off Clones and Baylor two I was most curious about .. they're also first out I'm hitting a few not B12 but a few in my thread .. bunch up so far on the US books where it looks like they just mailed in the number right after the season ended last year ..
Great stuff DOC .. yeah odds so low for conf I can't get on board .. my hope for OU is we see them blow the doors off the first few plus nebraska and there's just no way they can cover a game after that .. and yer right D could be technically better but very tough to replace the guys from last year so don't think it happens right away .. expecting mass shootings every game ..
I really don't hate the idea of taking Baylor again, Bohanan just hit the bricks because the other guy asserted himself as the alpha QB apparently and folks down in waco lookin for Grimes to light more of a fire under that offense this year I think it could happen .. really wouldn't bet against Dave Aranda getting a stout D together again even if it appears gutted, he and Grimes total alchemists over there ..
Just not much else to sink the teeth into tho .. seems like maybe a down year for what is usually a pretty rough and rugged B12 slate for all these teams .. Kitley going to T-Tech could be fun but unlikely to be much more than that .. never count out Campbell but after 3 years of mass ret production we'll see what lands .. Fan Duel got the RSW's up for B12 and the PAC .. unfortunately left off Clones and Baylor two I was most curious about .. they're also first out I'm hitting a few not B12 but a few in my thread .. bunch up so far on the US books where it looks like they just mailed in the number right after the season ended last year ..
@DrStrangelove Great stuff DOC .. yeah odds so low for conf I can't get on board .. my hope for OU is we see them blow the doors off the first few plus nebraska and there's just no way they can cover a game after that .. and yer right D could be technically better but very tough to replace the guys from last year so don't think it happens right away .. expecting mass shootings every game .. I really don't hate the idea of taking Baylor again, Bohanan just hit the bricks because the other guy asserted himself as the alpha QB apparently and folks down in waco lookin for Grimes to light more of a fire under that offense this year I think it could happen .. really wouldn't bet against Dave Aranda getting a stout D together again even if it appears gutted, he and Grimes total alchemists over there .. Just not much else to sink the teeth into tho .. seems like maybe a down year for what is usually a pretty rough and rugged B12 slate for all these teams .. Kitley going to T-Tech could be fun but unlikely to be much more than that .. never count out Campbell but after 3 years of mass ret production we'll see what lands .. Fan Duel got the RSW's up for B12 and the PAC .. unfortunately left off Clones and Baylor two I was most curious about .. they're also first out I'm hitting a few not B12 but a few in my thread .. bunch up so far on the US books where it looks like they just mailed in the number right after the season ended last year .. Good luck w you sooners bud .
My first thought after seeing the odds was Baylor and Kansas State odds are too high. The only thing that gives me pause on both OSU and Baylor is they both came out of nowhere and covered 9 games ATS last year, which is almost always the kiss of death ATS the next season. But since defense was the strong suit of both teams, maybe they don't have to cover a high number of games to win the Big 12? But they won't be sneaking up on anybody this time either, especially Baylor. KSU is very tempting at 50/1. I don't really see them winning the Big 12 because of having to deal with road games at OU, Baylor, Iowa St and WVU. But I could hedge the hell out of that bet if KSU should make the title game. The thing is, if OU or Texas incur some unexpected injuries, it could be a free for all. I really like Dillon Gabriel, but he is coming off a season ending injury. So I don't know how fragile the kid will be now that he's playing the big boys week after week. I know he'll have to get rid of the ball a step sooner than he did in the AAC. Texas Tech is pretty high at 40/1. But who the hell knows what's going to happen with a first year coach. All I know is after watching what happened in the Kentucky Derby, I'm not ruling anything out.
@DrStrangelove Great stuff DOC .. yeah odds so low for conf I can't get on board .. my hope for OU is we see them blow the doors off the first few plus nebraska and there's just no way they can cover a game after that .. and yer right D could be technically better but very tough to replace the guys from last year so don't think it happens right away .. expecting mass shootings every game .. I really don't hate the idea of taking Baylor again, Bohanan just hit the bricks because the other guy asserted himself as the alpha QB apparently and folks down in waco lookin for Grimes to light more of a fire under that offense this year I think it could happen .. really wouldn't bet against Dave Aranda getting a stout D together again even if it appears gutted, he and Grimes total alchemists over there .. Just not much else to sink the teeth into tho .. seems like maybe a down year for what is usually a pretty rough and rugged B12 slate for all these teams .. Kitley going to T-Tech could be fun but unlikely to be much more than that .. never count out Campbell but after 3 years of mass ret production we'll see what lands .. Fan Duel got the RSW's up for B12 and the PAC .. unfortunately left off Clones and Baylor two I was most curious about .. they're also first out I'm hitting a few not B12 but a few in my thread .. bunch up so far on the US books where it looks like they just mailed in the number right after the season ended last year .. Good luck w you sooners bud .
My first thought after seeing the odds was Baylor and Kansas State odds are too high. The only thing that gives me pause on both OSU and Baylor is they both came out of nowhere and covered 9 games ATS last year, which is almost always the kiss of death ATS the next season. But since defense was the strong suit of both teams, maybe they don't have to cover a high number of games to win the Big 12? But they won't be sneaking up on anybody this time either, especially Baylor. KSU is very tempting at 50/1. I don't really see them winning the Big 12 because of having to deal with road games at OU, Baylor, Iowa St and WVU. But I could hedge the hell out of that bet if KSU should make the title game. The thing is, if OU or Texas incur some unexpected injuries, it could be a free for all. I really like Dillon Gabriel, but he is coming off a season ending injury. So I don't know how fragile the kid will be now that he's playing the big boys week after week. I know he'll have to get rid of the ball a step sooner than he did in the AAC. Texas Tech is pretty high at 40/1. But who the hell knows what's going to happen with a first year coach. All I know is after watching what happened in the Kentucky Derby, I'm not ruling anything out.
K-St 50-1 why not, won't break the bank and its not like it takes them 50 years to put a big surprise team together.. really not worth taking the odds-on favs in this super tumultuous environment, just unlikely the odds predictor model machine is picking winners when portals shaking everything around, got rosters trimming this year but obvi keeping the guys they like so just gunna be more efficient and little teams have access to grab players who'd never dream of going to their schools if they can get them interested .. still got 6th year seniors running around .. low returning production matters alot less when the backups been in the system 3 years already .. also got weird motivational factors with the NIL are going to strike some teams .. Gotta say that unless Jordan Addison's 3M + Mansion deal has some hidden pay for play strings attached the logical move is to not even play another down in college .. nothing to prove on the field, won a big conf championship already, no ties to the new school .. just got rich and waiting for next years draft, no?... not many have the nothing to prove part but I'd imagine quite a few big time draft prospects suddenly have back spasms after a playoff killing loss .. happened to LSU on week 1 two years in a row lol.
I like the new(ish) coach, new QB, and new attitude teams, great recipe for big surprise change think we can say Baylor, N.ILL, Utah State conf tickets cashed on that formula last year and others came pretty close or surprised us, Mich State, W.KY, Fresno, Tennessee, Ark.. obvi not a sure things but the big gainers always have some change agent to spark them .. I think Wash State might have it this year .. and seems almost every conference has had a fairly decent surprise winner in the last year or two.. guess we could say SEC didn't but UGA was a big surprise .. Sun / AAC didn't but coastal came knockin outta nowhere .. anyway .. def no reason to bet on OU or UT IMO ..
K-St 50-1 why not, won't break the bank and its not like it takes them 50 years to put a big surprise team together.. really not worth taking the odds-on favs in this super tumultuous environment, just unlikely the odds predictor model machine is picking winners when portals shaking everything around, got rosters trimming this year but obvi keeping the guys they like so just gunna be more efficient and little teams have access to grab players who'd never dream of going to their schools if they can get them interested .. still got 6th year seniors running around .. low returning production matters alot less when the backups been in the system 3 years already .. also got weird motivational factors with the NIL are going to strike some teams .. Gotta say that unless Jordan Addison's 3M + Mansion deal has some hidden pay for play strings attached the logical move is to not even play another down in college .. nothing to prove on the field, won a big conf championship already, no ties to the new school .. just got rich and waiting for next years draft, no?... not many have the nothing to prove part but I'd imagine quite a few big time draft prospects suddenly have back spasms after a playoff killing loss .. happened to LSU on week 1 two years in a row lol.
I like the new(ish) coach, new QB, and new attitude teams, great recipe for big surprise change think we can say Baylor, N.ILL, Utah State conf tickets cashed on that formula last year and others came pretty close or surprised us, Mich State, W.KY, Fresno, Tennessee, Ark.. obvi not a sure things but the big gainers always have some change agent to spark them .. I think Wash State might have it this year .. and seems almost every conference has had a fairly decent surprise winner in the last year or two.. guess we could say SEC didn't but UGA was a big surprise .. Sun / AAC didn't but coastal came knockin outta nowhere .. anyway .. def no reason to bet on OU or UT IMO ..
As a Clemson fan, I think this year’s OU is underrated with a season wins total at 8.5 over -160. Venables is a great coach who will let the OC do his thing just like Dabo never interfered with the defense at Clemson (though he does interfere with the offense to the consternation of Clemson fans). There will be other good teams in the conference, of course, so I’m not making predictions beyond OU winning 9 or 10 games.
As a Clemson fan, I think this year’s OU is underrated with a season wins total at 8.5 over -160. Venables is a great coach who will let the OC do his thing just like Dabo never interfered with the defense at Clemson (though he does interfere with the offense to the consternation of Clemson fans). There will be other good teams in the conference, of course, so I’m not making predictions beyond OU winning 9 or 10 games.
As a Clemson fan, I think this year’s OU is underrated with a season wins total at 8.5 over -160. Venables is a great coach who will let the OC do his thing just like Dabo never interfered with the defense at Clemson (though he does interfere with the offense to the consternation of Clemson fans). There will be other good teams in the conference, of course, so I’m not making predictions beyond OU winning 9 or 10 games.
Other than the -160 juice the over 8.5 almost looks too easy since OU's season win total has never been this low in the 2000's. Nobody is more excited than I am to be done with Riley and be getting Venables and his emphasis on physical play on both sides of the ball. Something the Sooners have been seriously lacking under Riley. But my main concern is the stuff that is out of Venables hands like the significant losses in the transfer portal. Plus OU will be starting over with a new system, new QB, new coach and a few portal transfers that will be asked to come together quickly. It won't be easy getting 9 wins out of that situation even though OU is still the most talented team in the conference. Possible roadblocks on the way will definitely be their early game at Nebraska. A team that played OU very close last year and came out big winners in the transfer portal. I think over 7.5 wins is a great bet for the Huskers. And Ames is a very tough place to play and ISU's games with OU have almost all been nailbiters. I think Campbell will have the advantage there because the Clones already have their system in place. Another team looking for revenge on the Sooners since they kind of had OU on the ropes in Norman before Purdy threw that costly interception.
Of course the Red River Shootout is always a roll of the dice every year, it doesn't matter how good OU is or how bad the Horns are. Another team that had OU on the ropes before Caleb Williams came in to save the day. OU also gets KSU early. I believe it's their first conference game. KSU is always tough no matter who they lose. There's really no such thing as a rebuild with this team. They are who they are with a great coach that ALWAYS has them ready. They beat OU in Norman 2 years ago as 27 point dogs in Spencer Rattler's Big 12 debut. My power ratings have TCU as the most improved team this year. And the Frogs will be on the tail end of a tough 3 game stretch for OU playing at Nebraska, KSU and at TCU. That will be a dangerous game too. And that's not counting the games we have against OSU and Baylor. Luckily they'll both be at home. I'm probably still going to make a small preseason bet on the Sooners over 8.5. But I think there are a couple better plays to make within the Big 12. I'll be listing my Big 12 power ratings this weekend and a couple Big 12 win totals that I like. Good luck this season!
As a Clemson fan, I think this year’s OU is underrated with a season wins total at 8.5 over -160. Venables is a great coach who will let the OC do his thing just like Dabo never interfered with the defense at Clemson (though he does interfere with the offense to the consternation of Clemson fans). There will be other good teams in the conference, of course, so I’m not making predictions beyond OU winning 9 or 10 games.
Other than the -160 juice the over 8.5 almost looks too easy since OU's season win total has never been this low in the 2000's. Nobody is more excited than I am to be done with Riley and be getting Venables and his emphasis on physical play on both sides of the ball. Something the Sooners have been seriously lacking under Riley. But my main concern is the stuff that is out of Venables hands like the significant losses in the transfer portal. Plus OU will be starting over with a new system, new QB, new coach and a few portal transfers that will be asked to come together quickly. It won't be easy getting 9 wins out of that situation even though OU is still the most talented team in the conference. Possible roadblocks on the way will definitely be their early game at Nebraska. A team that played OU very close last year and came out big winners in the transfer portal. I think over 7.5 wins is a great bet for the Huskers. And Ames is a very tough place to play and ISU's games with OU have almost all been nailbiters. I think Campbell will have the advantage there because the Clones already have their system in place. Another team looking for revenge on the Sooners since they kind of had OU on the ropes in Norman before Purdy threw that costly interception.
Of course the Red River Shootout is always a roll of the dice every year, it doesn't matter how good OU is or how bad the Horns are. Another team that had OU on the ropes before Caleb Williams came in to save the day. OU also gets KSU early. I believe it's their first conference game. KSU is always tough no matter who they lose. There's really no such thing as a rebuild with this team. They are who they are with a great coach that ALWAYS has them ready. They beat OU in Norman 2 years ago as 27 point dogs in Spencer Rattler's Big 12 debut. My power ratings have TCU as the most improved team this year. And the Frogs will be on the tail end of a tough 3 game stretch for OU playing at Nebraska, KSU and at TCU. That will be a dangerous game too. And that's not counting the games we have against OSU and Baylor. Luckily they'll both be at home. I'm probably still going to make a small preseason bet on the Sooners over 8.5. But I think there are a couple better plays to make within the Big 12. I'll be listing my Big 12 power ratings this weekend and a couple Big 12 win totals that I like. Good luck this season!
I'm still going over a few of these other conferences, but I should have a few win totals out sometime in the next week or two. I'll have some Big 12 sometime this weekend. I always throw "just in case" money on KSU since they seem like the most consistent team in the conference along with ISU. They'll need to knock off either ISU or OU on the road to have a chance. If they do then it could get interesting. Especially if they beat Mizzou at home in that early non-conference game. With the Big 12 being a round robin conference, sweeping your early non-conference games can be very important in case there is a tie breaker. And it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we have a two or three way tie at the end of the year. And OU and Texas both have tough games with Nebraska and Texas with Bama. And Baylor plays at BYU. And BYU will be FAR from a pushover this year.
I'm still going over a few of these other conferences, but I should have a few win totals out sometime in the next week or two. I'll have some Big 12 sometime this weekend. I always throw "just in case" money on KSU since they seem like the most consistent team in the conference along with ISU. They'll need to knock off either ISU or OU on the road to have a chance. If they do then it could get interesting. Especially if they beat Mizzou at home in that early non-conference game. With the Big 12 being a round robin conference, sweeping your early non-conference games can be very important in case there is a tie breaker. And it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we have a two or three way tie at the end of the year. And OU and Texas both have tough games with Nebraska and Texas with Bama. And Baylor plays at BYU. And BYU will be FAR from a pushover this year.
Think Fan duel had OU opening 9.5, had my fingers xx'd a 10 would get there but that seems well out of reach at this point .. I would def wait to see where the number goes and maybe the odds or even the number drops from here... Books def came out giving OU/UT a hefty lean toward their most favorable outcomes, not just because the B12 is just the BIG-2 every pre-ssn but this year particular the pre-summer grading on everyone else in the conference and Nebraska couldn't have been that strong or confident .. lotta roster turnover, new QB's, etc .. also UT/OU game graded as a tossup in the GOY's but UT easily taking home all the pre-ssn hype awards .. think books move that game UT's way if/when they name Ewers the QB .. idk just seems like at a min we're gunna find closer to even odds before kickoff .. maybe even a juiced up 8?...
Think Fan duel had OU opening 9.5, had my fingers xx'd a 10 would get there but that seems well out of reach at this point .. I would def wait to see where the number goes and maybe the odds or even the number drops from here... Books def came out giving OU/UT a hefty lean toward their most favorable outcomes, not just because the B12 is just the BIG-2 every pre-ssn but this year particular the pre-summer grading on everyone else in the conference and Nebraska couldn't have been that strong or confident .. lotta roster turnover, new QB's, etc .. also UT/OU game graded as a tossup in the GOY's but UT easily taking home all the pre-ssn hype awards .. think books move that game UT's way if/when they name Ewers the QB .. idk just seems like at a min we're gunna find closer to even odds before kickoff .. maybe even a juiced up 8?...
Here are the 2022 Big 12 Power Ratings. A friend of mine crunches these numbers every season, and has been very accurate for the last 20 years or so that I've known him. Which is why I use his numbers and not mine. Most of it is based on the grades he gives for player positions returning with more/less experience. So for example QB Sanders returns at OSU so he gave him +0.5. Purdy departed from Iowa St so he gave them a -1.5 at that position, and so on through all 11 positions, special teams and coach. The number in ( ) after the power rating is the PR number they finished at the end of the 2021 season. As you can see Baylor has the biggest drop and TCU is the biggest jump in the PR.
Here are the 2022 Big 12 Power Ratings. A friend of mine crunches these numbers every season, and has been very accurate for the last 20 years or so that I've known him. Which is why I use his numbers and not mine. Most of it is based on the grades he gives for player positions returning with more/less experience. So for example QB Sanders returns at OSU so he gave him +0.5. Purdy departed from Iowa St so he gave them a -1.5 at that position, and so on through all 11 positions, special teams and coach. The number in ( ) after the power rating is the PR number they finished at the end of the 2021 season. As you can see Baylor has the biggest drop and TCU is the biggest jump in the PR.
Iowa St. over 6.5 (-135)....I thought it was a little out of character the way this team played last season. Way too many turnovers at the worst times in games (Iowa, Baylor, OU). Purdy didn't play up to his abilities that he showed in his first couple of seasons. So even though they are losing experience, I think a QB shake up could actually be good for them as the season goes along. They are still strong on the OL and WR. And they've always had a great defensive scheme that never seems to fall off much from year to year. Seven wins looks pretty doable. They haven't had less than 7 wins in the last six years.
Iowa St. over 6.5 (-135)....I thought it was a little out of character the way this team played last season. Way too many turnovers at the worst times in games (Iowa, Baylor, OU). Purdy didn't play up to his abilities that he showed in his first couple of seasons. So even though they are losing experience, I think a QB shake up could actually be good for them as the season goes along. They are still strong on the OL and WR. And they've always had a great defensive scheme that never seems to fall off much from year to year. Seven wins looks pretty doable. They haven't had less than 7 wins in the last six years.
Kansas St over 6.5 (-125)....I'm a little worried about this one because KSU sometimes has a drop after posting a better than expected season. Plus the Cats are going through a couple assistant coaching changes within the program. How much this will affect the offense I'm not sure. But they still have the most dynamic player in the Big 12 with Deuce Vaughn. The talent of his surrounding cast is a bit of a concern. But KSU should be improved on defense. Especially in their front seven. Too steady of a program to not make a play on them every season. If they beat Mizzou in that early home game, I think they're well on our way to covering this bet.
Kansas St over 6.5 (-125)....I'm a little worried about this one because KSU sometimes has a drop after posting a better than expected season. Plus the Cats are going through a couple assistant coaching changes within the program. How much this will affect the offense I'm not sure. But they still have the most dynamic player in the Big 12 with Deuce Vaughn. The talent of his surrounding cast is a bit of a concern. But KSU should be improved on defense. Especially in their front seven. Too steady of a program to not make a play on them every season. If they beat Mizzou in that early home game, I think they're well on our way to covering this bet.
Texas Tech under 5.5 (-110)....Another coaching change for TTU plus they had something like 19 super seniors last year. They are going back to the Kliff Kingsbury type of offense, but they also suffer a big drop off on defense this year.
Texas Tech under 5.5 (-110)....Another coaching change for TTU plus they had something like 19 super seniors last year. They are going back to the Kliff Kingsbury type of offense, but they also suffer a big drop off on defense this year.
Kansas over 2.5 wins (-130)....Considering the late spring start that HV Leipold got last year I thought he did an excellent job with this team. Especially the offense. With the exception of a couple portal gets, the talent really hasn't changed much with this team. They are dead last in the Big 12. But unlike in past years, they are no longer going backwards. I think they'll improve with each season. I do believe they will win the games they are supposed to win this season (Tenn Tech & Duke). They need one Big 12 upset to complete the trifecta. The problem is there is no room for error. They are on the "tough year" of their Big 12 schedule with just 4 home games, so they'll have to make the most of their situation. Their best chances will probably come against teams with first year coaches (TCU, TTU).
Kansas over 2.5 wins (-130)....Considering the late spring start that HV Leipold got last year I thought he did an excellent job with this team. Especially the offense. With the exception of a couple portal gets, the talent really hasn't changed much with this team. They are dead last in the Big 12. But unlike in past years, they are no longer going backwards. I think they'll improve with each season. I do believe they will win the games they are supposed to win this season (Tenn Tech & Duke). They need one Big 12 upset to complete the trifecta. The problem is there is no room for error. They are on the "tough year" of their Big 12 schedule with just 4 home games, so they'll have to make the most of their situation. Their best chances will probably come against teams with first year coaches (TCU, TTU).
West Virginia over 5.5 (-125)....I doubt they can beat Pitt in their first game, and they finish the season with a very tough 4 game stretch, but I still kind of like this total. My total number is 6.46 so it's worth a shot. WV is on the "easy year" of their Big 12 schedule with 5 home games. Both lines should be good, which goes a long ways with me in spite the skill talent. Their defense is always tough to play against. But my main reason for liking it is they are finally shaking up their offense bringing in Graham Harrell at OC, finally seeing an ineffective Jarrett Doege go, and bringing in JT Daniels from Georgia plus a backup QB with plenty of experience.
West Virginia over 5.5 (-125)....I doubt they can beat Pitt in their first game, and they finish the season with a very tough 4 game stretch, but I still kind of like this total. My total number is 6.46 so it's worth a shot. WV is on the "easy year" of their Big 12 schedule with 5 home games. Both lines should be good, which goes a long ways with me in spite the skill talent. Their defense is always tough to play against. But my main reason for liking it is they are finally shaking up their offense bringing in Graham Harrell at OC, finally seeing an ineffective Jarrett Doege go, and bringing in JT Daniels from Georgia plus a backup QB with plenty of experience.
OU over 8.5 (-165)....I think they'll probably go over. I have the Sooners at 9.11 wins. But I just don't think the juice is worth the squeeze on this one. Not with a first year coach, QB, system, a portal disaster loss. One thing I can say for sure, the Sooners have the best conditioning coach in the country with Jerry Schmidt (Schmitty). So you can bet that nobody will be tougher physically or mentally than OU going into this season. Something we haven't seen the last 5 years under Riley.
Texas under 8.5....I SHOULD play this one since my number is just 7.05. But I don't want to jinx it. If Texas OL comes together they'll have one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. But the book is still out for me on Sark. They'll be improved over last season, but they are probably still a year away from what they really want out of this team. They can't blame recruiting. It's been great, the best in the conference.
TCU under 6.5....My number is just 5. The problem here is I'm not sure if Sonny Dykes is going to have them playing that much better. They lose a lot on defense, and aren't particularly special on either of their lines. We'll find out how much Patterson had a stranglehold on this team. Many of the players didn't exactly love the guy, so this year should be more loosey goosey under Dykes. But I can see this team in a lot of shootouts.
OU over 8.5 (-165)....I think they'll probably go over. I have the Sooners at 9.11 wins. But I just don't think the juice is worth the squeeze on this one. Not with a first year coach, QB, system, a portal disaster loss. One thing I can say for sure, the Sooners have the best conditioning coach in the country with Jerry Schmidt (Schmitty). So you can bet that nobody will be tougher physically or mentally than OU going into this season. Something we haven't seen the last 5 years under Riley.
Texas under 8.5....I SHOULD play this one since my number is just 7.05. But I don't want to jinx it. If Texas OL comes together they'll have one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. But the book is still out for me on Sark. They'll be improved over last season, but they are probably still a year away from what they really want out of this team. They can't blame recruiting. It's been great, the best in the conference.
TCU under 6.5....My number is just 5. The problem here is I'm not sure if Sonny Dykes is going to have them playing that much better. They lose a lot on defense, and aren't particularly special on either of their lines. We'll find out how much Patterson had a stranglehold on this team. Many of the players didn't exactly love the guy, so this year should be more loosey goosey under Dykes. But I can see this team in a lot of shootouts.
@DrStrangelove K-St 50-1 why not, won't break the bank and its not like it takes them 50 years to put a big surprise team together.. ..
Welp got my 50-1 ticket in there, seein 14-1 at BoL now, musta seen Phil riding high on them .. would be great to see A-Mart stop playin like K-Mart and rip it this year, obvi couldnt take 14-1 on that happening tho... idk, seemed like phil went gaga over TCU all the way thru their decline, hope hes got a solid read on these guys ..
I grabbed Cyclones too found a 25-1 a while back ... only hearing good about the QB coming in, it would be so much easier for Campbell & Co to show up surprising if they arent blowin smoke and actually got a dude who can sling it ... think i also need them to ditch the whole 30 plays per drive offense.. try something a little more hip .. we'll see ..
I grabbed Kansas RSW found a 2 -125 early on, seems at least pretty tough to lose .. Wouldnt trust the models to have the Jayhawks pegged this pre-ssn .. In Lipold I Trust!!! .. gulp .. lol .. i woulda gotten around to play over 2.5 not sure id be in a hurry to lay -130 though ..
@DrStrangelove K-St 50-1 why not, won't break the bank and its not like it takes them 50 years to put a big surprise team together.. ..
Welp got my 50-1 ticket in there, seein 14-1 at BoL now, musta seen Phil riding high on them .. would be great to see A-Mart stop playin like K-Mart and rip it this year, obvi couldnt take 14-1 on that happening tho... idk, seemed like phil went gaga over TCU all the way thru their decline, hope hes got a solid read on these guys ..
I grabbed Cyclones too found a 25-1 a while back ... only hearing good about the QB coming in, it would be so much easier for Campbell & Co to show up surprising if they arent blowin smoke and actually got a dude who can sling it ... think i also need them to ditch the whole 30 plays per drive offense.. try something a little more hip .. we'll see ..
I grabbed Kansas RSW found a 2 -125 early on, seems at least pretty tough to lose .. Wouldnt trust the models to have the Jayhawks pegged this pre-ssn .. In Lipold I Trust!!! .. gulp .. lol .. i woulda gotten around to play over 2.5 not sure id be in a hurry to lay -130 though ..
Oh and yeah WVA .. lotta hype with JT coming in, we'll see pieces of that team have been falling off left and right, been waiting for a chance to fade these people ever since they canned their DC over nothing back in that summer of fun, think we can cash in on their decline this year .. not sure if im laying points with pitt, WV eeks one out there and def thinking take 2+TD's vs Kansas .. Im seeing all of The Virginia's as being maybe serious duds this year .. Grant Wells w no receivers ... Brennan Armstrong w no run game O Line or defense .. eek ..
Oh and yeah WVA .. lotta hype with JT coming in, we'll see pieces of that team have been falling off left and right, been waiting for a chance to fade these people ever since they canned their DC over nothing back in that summer of fun, think we can cash in on their decline this year .. not sure if im laying points with pitt, WV eeks one out there and def thinking take 2+TD's vs Kansas .. Im seeing all of The Virginia's as being maybe serious duds this year .. Grant Wells w no receivers ... Brennan Armstrong w no run game O Line or defense .. eek ..
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1: @DrStrangelove K-St 50-1 why not, won't break the bank and its not like it takes them 50 years to put a big surprise team together.. .. Welp got my 50-1 ticket in there, seein 14-1 at BoL now, musta seen Phil riding high on them .. would be great to see A-Mart stop playin like K-Mart and rip it this year, obvi couldnt take 14-1 on that happening tho... idk, seemed like phil went gaga over TCU all the way thru their decline, hope hes got a solid read on these guys .. I grabbed Cyclones too found a 25-1 a while back ... only hearing good about the QB coming in, it would be so much easier for Campbell & Co to show up surprising if they arent blowin smoke and actually got a dude who can sling it ... think i also need them to ditch the whole 30 plays per drive offense.. try something a little more hip .. we'll see .. I grabbed Kansas RSW found a 2 -125 early on, seems at least pretty tough to lose .. Wouldnt trust the models to have the Jayhawks pegged this pre-ssn .. In Lipold I Trust!!! .. gulp .. lol .. i woulda gotten around to play over 2.5 not sure id be in a hurry to lay -130 though .. good luck brother
Given that ISU doesn't have a super tough Big 12 round robin schedule, I do really like the over 6.5 and the 25-1 win odds. Especially given that most of the Big 12 teams coming off the '21 covid year where everyone had an extra year of eligibility, are now rebuilding or reloading for 2022. Which (on a level playing field) gives an experienced coach like Campbell with a set system in place and 5 Big 12 home games, a better chance against the 3 new head coaches in the league and a couple of others that will only be in their second seasons. Getting Baylor and OU at home doesn't hurt either.
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1: @DrStrangelove K-St 50-1 why not, won't break the bank and its not like it takes them 50 years to put a big surprise team together.. .. Welp got my 50-1 ticket in there, seein 14-1 at BoL now, musta seen Phil riding high on them .. would be great to see A-Mart stop playin like K-Mart and rip it this year, obvi couldnt take 14-1 on that happening tho... idk, seemed like phil went gaga over TCU all the way thru their decline, hope hes got a solid read on these guys .. I grabbed Cyclones too found a 25-1 a while back ... only hearing good about the QB coming in, it would be so much easier for Campbell & Co to show up surprising if they arent blowin smoke and actually got a dude who can sling it ... think i also need them to ditch the whole 30 plays per drive offense.. try something a little more hip .. we'll see .. I grabbed Kansas RSW found a 2 -125 early on, seems at least pretty tough to lose .. Wouldnt trust the models to have the Jayhawks pegged this pre-ssn .. In Lipold I Trust!!! .. gulp .. lol .. i woulda gotten around to play over 2.5 not sure id be in a hurry to lay -130 though .. good luck brother
Given that ISU doesn't have a super tough Big 12 round robin schedule, I do really like the over 6.5 and the 25-1 win odds. Especially given that most of the Big 12 teams coming off the '21 covid year where everyone had an extra year of eligibility, are now rebuilding or reloading for 2022. Which (on a level playing field) gives an experienced coach like Campbell with a set system in place and 5 Big 12 home games, a better chance against the 3 new head coaches in the league and a couple of others that will only be in their second seasons. Getting Baylor and OU at home doesn't hurt either.
Given their losses, I just don't see the OSU defense being as strong as they were last year. I believe their biggest loss was DC Knowles, who left for the other OSU. He had a very unique and hard to learn defensive scheme that I don't believe will be repeated by Mason. After achieving a great ATS season, OSU has always had a significant drop off ATS the next season. If the D can't carry the weight they did in 2021, I can't see Sanders and Co. saving the day in those close games.
Given their losses, I just don't see the OSU defense being as strong as they were last year. I believe their biggest loss was DC Knowles, who left for the other OSU. He had a very unique and hard to learn defensive scheme that I don't believe will be repeated by Mason. After achieving a great ATS season, OSU has always had a significant drop off ATS the next season. If the D can't carry the weight they did in 2021, I can't see Sanders and Co. saving the day in those close games.
Everyone is giving Iowa State way too much credit. They took total advantage of the COVID year and everyone jumped on that. Does everyone remember them being ranked like 9th last year at the beginning of the year and they finished 7-6. They lost a ton of players from last years team and I think the middle of the BIG 12 is much better this year. They will get 2 non conference wins and Kansas...after that they will be in shoot outs and close games, that doesn't bode well for a new quarterback and a defense that lost a ton of DB's which is always a tough situation in this 2 hand touch league that has guys running open all over the place. Also take KSU over. They are going to be legit. They won't win the league, but they will finish 2nd or 3rd.
Everyone is giving Iowa State way too much credit. They took total advantage of the COVID year and everyone jumped on that. Does everyone remember them being ranked like 9th last year at the beginning of the year and they finished 7-6. They lost a ton of players from last years team and I think the middle of the BIG 12 is much better this year. They will get 2 non conference wins and Kansas...after that they will be in shoot outs and close games, that doesn't bode well for a new quarterback and a defense that lost a ton of DB's which is always a tough situation in this 2 hand touch league that has guys running open all over the place. Also take KSU over. They are going to be legit. They won't win the league, but they will finish 2nd or 3rd.
Everyone is giving Iowa State way too much credit. They took total advantage of the COVID year and everyone jumped on that. Does everyone remember them being ranked like 9th last year at the beginning of the year and they finished 7-6. They lost a ton of players from last years team and I think the middle of the BIG 12 is much better this year. They will get 2 non conference wins and Kansas...after that they will be in shoot outs and close games, that doesn't bode well for a new quarterback and a defense that lost a ton of DB's which is always a tough situation in this 2 hand touch league that has guys running open all over the place. Also take KSU over. They are going to be legit. They won't win the league, but they will finish 2nd or 3rd. This is what I have: Oklahoma Baylor KSU OSU Texas TCU Iowa State West Virginia Texas Tech Kansas
I've got to admit, on paper it's hard to logically disagree with you about Iowa St. They did lose a ton of talent. Although I think there is some quality depth on defense despite bringing back just 3 starters. I'm going mainly by the Clones history under Campbell. I like the over 6.5 because he hasn't won less than 7 games in the last 5 years. Plus they get the easy draw on the round robin schedule this year in only having to play 4 conference road games. Which is a good thing when breaking in a young (but talented) new QB. If you go by past history when Campbell hasn't had much to work with and his teams have been picked low (6th in the Big 12 this year), it has usually been when he has done his best work. If they follow recent history, they'll probably start slow, being undervalued going into Big 12 play, then start putting it together by midseason.
I do agree with you on KSU. Like Bridge, I couldn't resist getting some of that 50-1 odds. But just a reminder, teams that get the bad draw year on the Big 12 round robin schedule, usually don't win the Big 12 if you're not named Oklahoma. Last year both OSU and Baylor got the easy draw on the round robin schedule in each having to play only 4 Big 12 road games. It will be just the opposite for those teams this year. In order for either OSU or Baylor to win the conference this year, they'll have to take care of ALL of their road games and upset OU in Norman. No small feat for a couple teams (especially Baylor) with targets on their back. In my opinion, a few more teams come into play at having a chance to win the conference this year. Because of some coaching changes and the conference losing quite a few more starters than normal (due to the free covid year) I think this conference is more vulnerable than usual this season. Hell, evenly lowly Kansas is only at 300-1 odds to win the conference. That say a lot, but it's also a little embarrassing...lol
Everyone is giving Iowa State way too much credit. They took total advantage of the COVID year and everyone jumped on that. Does everyone remember them being ranked like 9th last year at the beginning of the year and they finished 7-6. They lost a ton of players from last years team and I think the middle of the BIG 12 is much better this year. They will get 2 non conference wins and Kansas...after that they will be in shoot outs and close games, that doesn't bode well for a new quarterback and a defense that lost a ton of DB's which is always a tough situation in this 2 hand touch league that has guys running open all over the place. Also take KSU over. They are going to be legit. They won't win the league, but they will finish 2nd or 3rd. This is what I have: Oklahoma Baylor KSU OSU Texas TCU Iowa State West Virginia Texas Tech Kansas
I've got to admit, on paper it's hard to logically disagree with you about Iowa St. They did lose a ton of talent. Although I think there is some quality depth on defense despite bringing back just 3 starters. I'm going mainly by the Clones history under Campbell. I like the over 6.5 because he hasn't won less than 7 games in the last 5 years. Plus they get the easy draw on the round robin schedule this year in only having to play 4 conference road games. Which is a good thing when breaking in a young (but talented) new QB. If you go by past history when Campbell hasn't had much to work with and his teams have been picked low (6th in the Big 12 this year), it has usually been when he has done his best work. If they follow recent history, they'll probably start slow, being undervalued going into Big 12 play, then start putting it together by midseason.
I do agree with you on KSU. Like Bridge, I couldn't resist getting some of that 50-1 odds. But just a reminder, teams that get the bad draw year on the Big 12 round robin schedule, usually don't win the Big 12 if you're not named Oklahoma. Last year both OSU and Baylor got the easy draw on the round robin schedule in each having to play only 4 Big 12 road games. It will be just the opposite for those teams this year. In order for either OSU or Baylor to win the conference this year, they'll have to take care of ALL of their road games and upset OU in Norman. No small feat for a couple teams (especially Baylor) with targets on their back. In my opinion, a few more teams come into play at having a chance to win the conference this year. Because of some coaching changes and the conference losing quite a few more starters than normal (due to the free covid year) I think this conference is more vulnerable than usual this season. Hell, evenly lowly Kansas is only at 300-1 odds to win the conference. That say a lot, but it's also a little embarrassing...lol
Cale Gundy, assistant coach at OU since 1999 and brother of Mike Gundy has resigned after using a derogatory term while in a film session. I'm sure more details will be made public as the story breaks, but I heard from a good source Cale (Gundy) was going over notes he had prepared for the players. I'm told Gundy then insinuated to one player in particular he needed to start taking notes. They had a lot to go over and so little time, etc. 10-15 minutes go by and he asks this particular player, again, where he needs to be on the play they were looking at. It was insinuated that the answer to this question shouldn't be difficult if he had the notes out on his iPad. It was at this point the iPad was collected and put up on a projector in front of them and read aloud. They were lyrics to a song that included the use of a racial slur twice. Immediately it was realized what had happened of the situation. Apologies were made. But I was a little surprised that the story blew up like it did and led to his resignation. The only thing I'm not sure of at this point is whether it was a forced resignation or Gundy resigned on his own. Gundy is a standup guy, so I lean it was on his own because a lengthy suspension was probably coming.. At any rate, it's tough watching a longtime dedicated Sooner (player & coach) and a big part of this program leave on these terms after so many years.
Cale Gundy, assistant coach at OU since 1999 and brother of Mike Gundy has resigned after using a derogatory term while in a film session. I'm sure more details will be made public as the story breaks, but I heard from a good source Cale (Gundy) was going over notes he had prepared for the players. I'm told Gundy then insinuated to one player in particular he needed to start taking notes. They had a lot to go over and so little time, etc. 10-15 minutes go by and he asks this particular player, again, where he needs to be on the play they were looking at. It was insinuated that the answer to this question shouldn't be difficult if he had the notes out on his iPad. It was at this point the iPad was collected and put up on a projector in front of them and read aloud. They were lyrics to a song that included the use of a racial slur twice. Immediately it was realized what had happened of the situation. Apologies were made. But I was a little surprised that the story blew up like it did and led to his resignation. The only thing I'm not sure of at this point is whether it was a forced resignation or Gundy resigned on his own. Gundy is a standup guy, so I lean it was on his own because a lengthy suspension was probably coming.. At any rate, it's tough watching a longtime dedicated Sooner (player & coach) and a big part of this program leave on these terms after so many years.
Arent we forgetting that SOMEBODY must have written this most horrible derogatory hateful thing in the world on their school issued ipad??? ... TWICE!!! No matter how hard the school conspires to keep it secret this perp must also be brought to justice .. The primary suspect has to be Michael Turk I mean he just looks like he'd write something like that and I also heard he didn't get the first vaccine let alone shove the other 5 or 6 up his ass, he should be gone anyway .. next i'd look at Drake Stoops I mean who couldnt see him and his dad and all the coaches singing songs like 'the eyes of texas' or doin gator bait chants before practice .. I'd also check out Dillon Gabriel we might have to wait for his 23 And Me results get back but even if the dna absolves him he'd still obvi have some splainin to do .. It could have even been Mike Gundy just look at his favorite fishing shirt ..
Arent we forgetting that SOMEBODY must have written this most horrible derogatory hateful thing in the world on their school issued ipad??? ... TWICE!!! No matter how hard the school conspires to keep it secret this perp must also be brought to justice .. The primary suspect has to be Michael Turk I mean he just looks like he'd write something like that and I also heard he didn't get the first vaccine let alone shove the other 5 or 6 up his ass, he should be gone anyway .. next i'd look at Drake Stoops I mean who couldnt see him and his dad and all the coaches singing songs like 'the eyes of texas' or doin gator bait chants before practice .. I'd also check out Dillon Gabriel we might have to wait for his 23 And Me results get back but even if the dna absolves him he'd still obvi have some splainin to do .. It could have even been Mike Gundy just look at his favorite fishing shirt ..
@DrStrangelove Arent we forgetting that SOMEBODY must have written this most horrible derogatory hateful thing in the world on their school issued ipad??? ... TWICE!!! No matter how hard the school conspires to keep it secret this perp must also be brought to justice .. The primary suspect has to be Michael Turk I mean he just looks like he'd write something like that and I also heard he didn't get the first vaccine let alone shove the other 5 or 6 up his ass, he should be gone anyway .. next i'd look at Drake Stoops I mean who couldnt see him and his dad and all the coaches singing songs like 'the eyes of texas' or doin gator bait chants before practice .. I'd also check out Dillon Gabriel we might have to wait for his 23 And Me results get back but even if the dna absolves him he'd still obvi have some splainin to do .. It could have even been Mike Gundy just look at his favorite fishing shirt ..
I heard it was a WR meeting. So it had to be one of the receivers. Your guess is as good as mine who it would be. I would think the freshman receivers would be too scared shitless of doing something wrong in their first training camp. We can also rule out the white players...I think...LOL.
@DrStrangelove Arent we forgetting that SOMEBODY must have written this most horrible derogatory hateful thing in the world on their school issued ipad??? ... TWICE!!! No matter how hard the school conspires to keep it secret this perp must also be brought to justice .. The primary suspect has to be Michael Turk I mean he just looks like he'd write something like that and I also heard he didn't get the first vaccine let alone shove the other 5 or 6 up his ass, he should be gone anyway .. next i'd look at Drake Stoops I mean who couldnt see him and his dad and all the coaches singing songs like 'the eyes of texas' or doin gator bait chants before practice .. I'd also check out Dillon Gabriel we might have to wait for his 23 And Me results get back but even if the dna absolves him he'd still obvi have some splainin to do .. It could have even been Mike Gundy just look at his favorite fishing shirt ..
I heard it was a WR meeting. So it had to be one of the receivers. Your guess is as good as mine who it would be. I would think the freshman receivers would be too scared shitless of doing something wrong in their first training camp. We can also rule out the white players...I think...LOL.
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