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*BCS Prep*

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by BucBacker:

Odie...you cannot compare Utah with last year's Hawaii, Hawaii had absolutely no running game and GA. had tee-off city!  One thing the average player tends to overlook is that you cannot handicap (to those that actually do) as you normally would.  Teams have a month to prepare for another team.  Yes I'd agree that an Alabama will demolish a Utah in the regular season (with but a week to prepare); but in a Bowl it's a different story and a different set of intangibles.  Remember Boise-Okla 2006?  How flat is Alabama gonna be after being one game away from the Chmp-game and now relegated to playing Utah?!  Intangibles?  On paper a blow-out, on the actual field who know's?  I gotta believe Utah's gonna hang around...
 
Don't think some people realize what percentage of BIG chalk covers Bowl Games?  Exactly why Vegas sets the lines...knowing everyone will bang the fav's!   You've got a semi-dysfunctional offense and you're laying 10.5 points to Joe Paterno?!  Give me a break...couldn't even score against UCLA and you're giving him 40 days and 10+ points to boot?  Talk about value in a line...
 
Did you know that DOGS OF +5 or MORE THAT WON 12 REGULAR SEASON GAMES (REGARDLESS OF CONFERENCE) WERE 8-0 BOTH SU AND ATS until Hawaii last year?!
 
Simply put...and check previous years' results...you bet the big chalk, the man's gonna collect...not always, but more often than not..especially in Bowl Games.


trends always catch up. don't put much into these trends as they are completely irrelevant from those games last year, to bama and utah this year. curious as to why you believe the extra time off favors the utes, as i see this extra time killing the utes momentum, and helping bama get back on track, plus bama has a huge coaching edge. also i'd imagine if you look at the numbers favorites and dogs both hit within 5% of 50% in bowl games.

lastly, that oklahoma boise game is totally different. that boise team would crush this utah team, also oklahoma wasn't happy to be there, they got robbed of the championshipgame based on a horrible call against oregon. so while oklahoma reasonably was upset, alabama has no reason to be upset
 
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Posted: #152
 
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Posted: #153
Bibendi, how strong do u feel about bama? I have a feeling they will come to play, buy there is a part of me that thinks they could have a let down. I keep getting the Boise St/ Oklahoma game from a few years ago in my head. For Utah, this is the biggest game in a long time for their program. I'm having trouble getting a read on how this Bama team will react. If I go with what these Bama homers think around here, the season is over and this game is worthless, and the better team lost the SEC championship game. I think Saban has these guys ready to prove to the nation that they are going to be around for awhile, I am just curious to how they come out for this one. Clearly, they are a superior team. your thoughts would be appreciated.
 
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Posted: #154
I'll get back to djwaud Just know that Nick Saban knows how important it is for his program to have this win. They will be fired up and beat Utah. For every Oklahoma/Boise St. there is a Hawaii/Georgia. Alabama romps this game. Early prediction: Alabama-38, Utah-10
 
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Posted: #155
Yeah I feel the same. I really think Utah is overmatched in this one, and feel Bama will crush them. I am just a tiny bit concerned they might come out flat due to the disappointment of the Florida loss. Thanks for the insight. How do you feel about the GMAC bowl, Ball St vs. Tulsa? The reason I am asking is because I will probably go to that since the only college football we get here in Mobile is this bowl game and the senior bowl. I am liking the over cause it seems like when these teams come down here their offenses go wild. Thanks and BOL this bowl season.
 
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Posted: #156

Quote Originally Posted by landis1717:



trends always catch up. don't put much into these trends as they are completely irrelevant from those games last year, to bama and utah this year. curious as to why you believe the extra time off favors the utes, as i see this extra time killing the utes momentum, and helping bama get back on track, plus bama has a huge coaching edge. also i'd imagine if you look at the numbers favorites and dogs both hit within 5% of 50% in bowl games.

lastly, that oklahoma boise game is totally different. that boise team would crush this utah team, also oklahoma wasn't happy to be there, they got robbed of the championshipgame based on a horrible call against oregon. so while oklahoma reasonably was upset, alabama has no reason to be upset

Landis--Every game is totally different.  Boise was gonna crush ECU last year.  Florida was gonna crush Michigan.  Okla was gonna crush WVU.  All got ripped...that's why they play the game!  And trends are not irrelevant...to bet them blindly, yes, but certain situations hold true a HIGH PERCENTAGE of the time.  Not always.  BUT OFTEN!  Very simply...40 days is a long time to hear and read about Fla-OK playing for a Nat'l Championship when a week ago you were the talk!  Teams don't play well in Bowls where they DON'T WANT to be!  That's why Mich ripped Fla last year!  Don't get me wrong...I'm not saying Utah is a better team than Bama...I'm just saying under Bowl conditions, anything can happen.  That's why they play 'em...

 
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Posted: #157
the difference is bama doesn't have a reason not to show up, this game means more to that team then either oklahoma game did the last two years. last year michigan was playing their last game under lloyd carr and had every bit as much talent as florida. you forget that often times trends catch up, and also you can name trends that go in any teams favor for any game. i don't think last year florida didn't want to be there either. so you know i had boise over oklahoma, and i had michigan over florida
 
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Posted: #158
I had Mich as well...and equal talent or not...they were getting double digits!  I also had ECU getting DD's vs. Boise last year.  That's why they make a line and there can be an argument for every game.  And some trends can't be bent in any teams favor.  I am not saying Bama doesn't have a reason to show-up...just saying they'd much rather be showing in Miami than in New Orleans..where the fans don't really love Saban.  Look at it this way Landis, one of us will have the winner!  Good luck..
 
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Posted: #159
As a big gator fan, last year against Michigan, they didn't have a defense .They were allowing 28+ a game. The Gators with tebow scored 35, but Micgigan came in healthy, and passed them to death and scored 41.
 
This year they found 3 running backs in addition to Harvin. Last years starter K Moore was turned into a blocking back.The defense is only allowing 13 a game, a 15 point a game improvement. They could be ave closer to 10-11 a game on defense, but they have been so far ahead that they pull the #1 defensive unit
 
If Harvin and Rainey were healthy Florida would of put up more points on Bama. Playing witout Harvin is like playing without a Reggie Bush.He had scored at least 1 TD in 14 straight games and when he is in, the defense has to put at least 2 men on him.So he not only hurts you receiving and rushing but he is a great decoy.
 
As far as Utah they have a strength of schedule almost the same as Bama. They have beaten an 8-4 Oregon St team that has beaten S Cal. They have a much better QB.Bama has beaten an LSU team in OT and Ga, both of these teams were not as good as they were supposed to be, and they only beat ole Miss 24-20. Both teams are in the top 10. All Im saying is 101/2 is good value.If these teams were nameless the line wouldn't be over 6
 
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Posted: #160
i know it was DD, but that was all on public perception, not on what they thought the final outcome would be.
 
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Posted: #161
Dont mean to change the subject but in my 48 yrs on this planet I never thought I would see the day ND was a DOG to Hawaii ! LMFAO
 
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Posted: #162
I see a minimum of 12 Specials during the bowl season


Heres to 12-0
 
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Posted: #163
12!!!! thats 35%+ of the games!!!!
 
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Posted: #164
WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!


TRAIN just made my night with the new avatar
 
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Posted: #165
any insight on ball state? i think this number seems short, i've made a ton of money fading tulsa in key spots this year, basically betting against them when they play someone worthwhile. ie. marshall, ecu, houston, and arkansas i had huge, only time i lost fading them was ucf (what an idiot i felt like). also won with them against tulane and utep. so call me crazy, but i really think ball state handles them with ease any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #166
Havent capped it yet landis. Have been lazy on the CFB capping front. Will have atleast 10 bowl plays posted tomorrow
 
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Posted: #167
i must admit i've been a bit lazy as well, my original plan was to do 2-3 games a day, but that hasn't happened, been to focused on nba/ncaab. will look forward to your plays.
 
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Posted: #168

Quote Originally Posted by landis1717:

i know it was DD, but that was all on public perception, not on what they thought the final outcome would be.

hate to tell you, but you just described the Bama-Utah line... the line they posted is based purely on public perception, not the actual spread that would be based on team performance... the correct spread on this game (if you throw out public perception) is Bama (-3)...

in fact, Utah is ranked right behind Alabama in performance ratings... Bama #7, Utah #8... no way they should be laying DD... not even a TD...

 
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Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by bibendi23:

UConn only -4 vs UB


Give me the Huskies!!!!

I see UCONN getting upset here...UB just needs to put 9 men in the box to stop the rushing attack...after what I saw what Pitt did to UCONN at home...I will go against them...Buffalo can sure muster a win here...It is their first bowl game that they accepted...can you give me an explanation why you see otherwise?  don't worry i haven't went with Buffalo out yet i'm still trying to make sense of this point spread and game itself....don't get me wrong Brown is a great rb but teams should have UCONN figured out by now...NO passing game whatsoever oh well
 
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Posted: #170
9 Early leans
 
Calif -7 - SF is like a home game, Mia has QB issues,better coach in Tedford
Ohio St +9
Florida -3  Gator homer probably just watch
V Tech+2
Florida Atl +7
Miss +6  upset special
Utah +10.5
Memphis +12.5 Never know when USF shows up
Navy +3 hard to beat team twice,but I like their running game
 
Bib be anxious to see your leans today
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #171

Quote Originally Posted by landis1717:

i know it was DD, but that was all on public perception, not on what they thought the final outcome would be.

Isn't every line based on public perception?  So they set the line on that game Fla-Mich differently than they usually do?

Think Ice4Blood hit the nail on the head...just as your statement did...PUBLIC PERCEPTION.  That's what every linesmaker looks for!  If you're going strictly by power-ratings, being Sagarin's or whomever's, Bama is -5...

 
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Posted: #172
bibendi23
 
Do you have an updated card yet?
 
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Posted: #173
Locked in so far:

VT +2
Florida -3
UConn -4
Troy -4
Memphis +12.5
 
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Posted: #174
i'll argue that fact anyday, and obviously we will go nowhere. the public perception is that utah is #7 catching 10 they can't lose. if you look at the talent it's not very close, bama is a lot better. also has the better coaching. the only defense they've played similar to as good as this is TCU and TCU's defense dominated them. you now contradict yourself Bucbacker, you first state that florida should have easily dominated them and thats why the line was DD and i said i thought michigan had every bit as much talent as them. now you're saying its public perception that was the line. anyways i'm not gonna continue to argue here, BOL to all your wagers this bowl season
 
 
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Posted: #175
with you on most there, just undecided on UB/UConn. everytime i play a uconn game these guys burn me, but i do see good value with uconn after the ball state win.
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