Boom BOL this week. I like Cal myself and Im thinking about betting them. But quick question, does Maynard concern you at all? He should get the job done but in the back of my mind Im like "its Maynor" nonetheless I think they win by at least a TD. ASU definately shits the bed all the time on the road.
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Boom BOL this week. I like Cal myself and Im thinking about betting them. But quick question, does Maynard concern you at all? He should get the job done but in the back of my mind Im like "its Maynor" nonetheless I think they win by at least a TD. ASU definately shits the bed all the time on the road.
Cal has always been a really good home team. Playing Cal at home is always difficult. I know they lost to Nevada earlier this year but as I said in another thread, Cal losing to to Nevada at home was truly a uncommon thing. Arizona S.T is a team that just simply hasn't showed through the years it's mature enough to play on the road. What do think ASU record is last ten road games? Not Spread, but just straight up winning and losing, 2- 8. Guys,
Riley was out out the first half for Cal in the Nevada game. I think that was a pretty big contributor to the loss
and ASU's road record is what got the coach fired and RichRod hired
gl with the Cal pick. definitely one where the sharps are pounding both sides. i do like that Cal is the dog now...those chalk to dog moves are always a good fade
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Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:
Cal has always been a really good home team. Playing Cal at home is always difficult. I know they lost to Nevada earlier this year but as I said in another thread, Cal losing to to Nevada at home was truly a uncommon thing. Arizona S.T is a team that just simply hasn't showed through the years it's mature enough to play on the road. What do think ASU record is last ten road games? Not Spread, but just straight up winning and losing, 2- 8. Guys,
Riley was out out the first half for Cal in the Nevada game. I think that was a pretty big contributor to the loss
and ASU's road record is what got the coach fired and RichRod hired
gl with the Cal pick. definitely one where the sharps are pounding both sides. i do like that Cal is the dog now...those chalk to dog moves are always a good fade
Riley was out out the first half for Cal in the Nevada game. I think that was a pretty big contributor to the loss
and ASU's road record is what got the coach fired and RichRod hired
gl with the Cal pick. definitely one where the sharps are pounding both sides. i do like that Cal is the dog now...those chalk to dog moves are always a good fade
Ummm...RichRod is at Arizona.
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Quote Originally Posted by jefff:
Riley was out out the first half for Cal in the Nevada game. I think that was a pretty big contributor to the loss
and ASU's road record is what got the coach fired and RichRod hired
gl with the Cal pick. definitely one where the sharps are pounding both sides. i do like that Cal is the dog now...those chalk to dog moves are always a good fade
Very well said my friend. Home and away dichtonomy, its key. I dont hear to many discuss this important and critical fact.
I use a method during the later stages of the CFB/ NFL season that uses the home/away dichtonomy that has been very profitable to me for many years. This is why I dont do as well in the early season. My forte is later stage handicapping. November, December, and January. CFB conferenence tournaments and bowl games. NFL's last 8 wks of the reg season and playoffs( Dec- thru-Jan) This is a prime point and time of the CFB/NFL seasons fo me. I am able to go back 3- 4 games for the home team and go back 3- 4 games for the road team seperating stats. This includes many variables under this method.
Variable #1 seperating the home teams L4H opponents power ratings and vice versa. Seperating the road teams L4road opponents power rating. Now you have the ability to create an average. > A.O.P.R( average opponents power rating) This give me the caliber of compitition ( 4 game sample of schedule strenghth and team caliber)) for the home team during thier L4 game series as well as the L4 game series thier opponent has played on the road. Its an in depth look at how teams fare @ home and on the road. Teams have already formed personalitys by that point and time of the season and may have had that same profile from previous seasons. ( documentation.. history repeats itself in football.)
Variable #2 Certain teams may have a postive point differential @ home, then when they take to the road they have a negative point diff. on the road. Does the term "Jeckle and Hyde" come to mind. This can become very confusing to someone who is not aware of this detail. Team point diffentials can change from home to road. Variable:#3 Lets decifer game play-by-play and remove the "points off turnovers " and points charged to defenses off the field etc. and get it down to a pure points per game. Then you can determine > How many pure points per game(PPPG) is the home team winning or losing by to thier A.O.P.R. Vice versa for the road team. Those are 3 basic variables for anyone who wants to investigate further.
Thought I would share some information to someone who always finds time to share with others. You bring up some very important information for the seriuos players on this site and you're an asset to the covers community. Thank you
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Boom,.
Very well said my friend. Home and away dichtonomy, its key. I dont hear to many discuss this important and critical fact.
I use a method during the later stages of the CFB/ NFL season that uses the home/away dichtonomy that has been very profitable to me for many years. This is why I dont do as well in the early season. My forte is later stage handicapping. November, December, and January. CFB conferenence tournaments and bowl games. NFL's last 8 wks of the reg season and playoffs( Dec- thru-Jan) This is a prime point and time of the CFB/NFL seasons fo me. I am able to go back 3- 4 games for the home team and go back 3- 4 games for the road team seperating stats. This includes many variables under this method.
Variable #1 seperating the home teams L4H opponents power ratings and vice versa. Seperating the road teams L4road opponents power rating. Now you have the ability to create an average. > A.O.P.R( average opponents power rating) This give me the caliber of compitition ( 4 game sample of schedule strenghth and team caliber)) for the home team during thier L4 game series as well as the L4 game series thier opponent has played on the road. Its an in depth look at how teams fare @ home and on the road. Teams have already formed personalitys by that point and time of the season and may have had that same profile from previous seasons. ( documentation.. history repeats itself in football.)
Variable #2 Certain teams may have a postive point differential @ home, then when they take to the road they have a negative point diff. on the road. Does the term "Jeckle and Hyde" come to mind. This can become very confusing to someone who is not aware of this detail. Team point diffentials can change from home to road. Variable:#3 Lets decifer game play-by-play and remove the "points off turnovers " and points charged to defenses off the field etc. and get it down to a pure points per game. Then you can determine > How many pure points per game(PPPG) is the home team winning or losing by to thier A.O.P.R. Vice versa for the road team. Those are 3 basic variables for anyone who wants to investigate further.
Thought I would share some information to someone who always finds time to share with others. You bring up some very important information for the seriuos players on this site and you're an asset to the covers community. Thank you
Nice write up Boom, I do lean towards Cal, here no doubt...however I disagree with you on your Clemson/ Bama game. Bama wins by double digits easily...
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Nice write up Boom, I do lean towards Cal, here no doubt...however I disagree with you on your Clemson/ Bama game. Bama wins by double digits easily...
best of luck boom, the one thing of being a great capper and is knowing which games to unload on...you just get this warm and fuzzy feeling inside when you see that line and you play it out 50 times and play devils advocate. well the real cappers like yourself know what i am talking about i am sure. that feeling is what keeps me going.
the best thing you have is confidence which i admire, scared money dont make money lol
again, great post and best of luck to you.
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best of luck boom, the one thing of being a great capper and is knowing which games to unload on...you just get this warm and fuzzy feeling inside when you see that line and you play it out 50 times and play devils advocate. well the real cappers like yourself know what i am talking about i am sure. that feeling is what keeps me going.
the best thing you have is confidence which i admire, scared money dont make money lol
Very well said my friend. Home and away dichtonomy, its key. I dont hear to many discuss this important and critical fact.
I use a method during the later stages of the CFB/ NFL season that uses the home/away dichtonomy that has been very profitable to me for many years. This is why I dont do as well in the early season. My forte is later stage handicapping. November, December, and January. CFB conferenence tournaments and bowl games. NFL's last 8 wks of the reg season and playoffs( Dec- thru-Jan) This is a prime point and time of the CFB/NFL seasons fo me. I am able to go back 3- 4 games for the home team and go back 3- 4 games for the road team seperating stats. This includes many variables under this method.
Variable #1 seperating the home teams L4H opponents power ratings and vice versa. Seperating the road teams L4road opponents power rating. Now you have the ability to create an average. > A.O.P.R( average opponents power rating) This give me the caliber of compitition ( 4 game sample of schedule strenghth and team caliber)) for the home team during thier L4 game series as well as the L4 game series thier opponent has played on the road. Its an in depth look at how teams fare @ home and on the road. Teams have already formed personalitys by that point and time of the season and may have had that same profile from previous seasons. ( documentation.. history repeats itself in football.)
Variable #2 Certain teams may have a postive point differential @ home, then when they take to the road they have a negative point diff. on the road. Does the term "Jeckle and Hyde" come to mind. This can become very confusing to someone who is not aware of this detail. Team point diffentials can change from home to road. Variable:#3 Lets decifer game play-by-play and remove the "points off turnovers " and points charged to defenses off the field etc. and get it down to a pure points per game. Then you can determine > How many pure points per game(PPPG) is the home team winning or losing by to thier A.O.P.R. Vice versa for the road team. Those are 3 basic variables for anyone who wants to investigate further.
Thought I would share some information to someone who always finds time to share with others. You bring up some very important information for the seriuos players on this site and you're an asset to the covers community. Thank you
This is a well thought out post Great info as this can help people!! The point around here that most people simply dont understand is that covers is place to share your thoughts and strategies to help each other.... Unlike weridos like crackhammer who makes up lies and is just here because there jealous of people like myself.
Good stuff wizerguy
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Boom,.
Very well said my friend. Home and away dichtonomy, its key. I dont hear to many discuss this important and critical fact.
I use a method during the later stages of the CFB/ NFL season that uses the home/away dichtonomy that has been very profitable to me for many years. This is why I dont do as well in the early season. My forte is later stage handicapping. November, December, and January. CFB conferenence tournaments and bowl games. NFL's last 8 wks of the reg season and playoffs( Dec- thru-Jan) This is a prime point and time of the CFB/NFL seasons fo me. I am able to go back 3- 4 games for the home team and go back 3- 4 games for the road team seperating stats. This includes many variables under this method.
Variable #1 seperating the home teams L4H opponents power ratings and vice versa. Seperating the road teams L4road opponents power rating. Now you have the ability to create an average. > A.O.P.R( average opponents power rating) This give me the caliber of compitition ( 4 game sample of schedule strenghth and team caliber)) for the home team during thier L4 game series as well as the L4 game series thier opponent has played on the road. Its an in depth look at how teams fare @ home and on the road. Teams have already formed personalitys by that point and time of the season and may have had that same profile from previous seasons. ( documentation.. history repeats itself in football.)
Variable #2 Certain teams may have a postive point differential @ home, then when they take to the road they have a negative point diff. on the road. Does the term "Jeckle and Hyde" come to mind. This can become very confusing to someone who is not aware of this detail. Team point diffentials can change from home to road. Variable:#3 Lets decifer game play-by-play and remove the "points off turnovers " and points charged to defenses off the field etc. and get it down to a pure points per game. Then you can determine > How many pure points per game(PPPG) is the home team winning or losing by to thier A.O.P.R. Vice versa for the road team. Those are 3 basic variables for anyone who wants to investigate further.
Thought I would share some information to someone who always finds time to share with others. You bring up some very important information for the seriuos players on this site and you're an asset to the covers community. Thank you
This is a well thought out post Great info as this can help people!! The point around here that most people simply dont understand is that covers is place to share your thoughts and strategies to help each other.... Unlike weridos like crackhammer who makes up lies and is just here because there jealous of people like myself.
To be honest...its about a lot more than whether they are at home. I am on AZ State for a number of reasons but most importantly, they quite literally are better in every phase of the game. That is why they are favored on the road which is something else you talked about.
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To be honest...its about a lot more than whether they are at home. I am on AZ State for a number of reasons but most importantly, they quite literally are better in every phase of the game. That is why they are favored on the road which is something else you talked about.
To be honest...its about a lot more than whether they are at home. I am on AZ State for a number of reasons but most importantly, they quite literally are better in every phase of the game. That is why they are favored on the road which is something else you talked about.
disagree.... the BIGGEST factor in all of college football is simply where the games are being played.
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Quote Originally Posted by gorays45:
To be honest...its about a lot more than whether they are at home. I am on AZ State for a number of reasons but most importantly, they quite literally are better in every phase of the game. That is why they are favored on the road which is something else you talked about.
disagree.... the BIGGEST factor in all of college football is simply where the games are being played.
AZ State went to a much harder to play in environment (not to mention a much better team) than Cal when they played Mizzou and had the game in their hands at the end. I don't see them being fazed by the short trip to Cal. Good luck.
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AZ State went to a much harder to play in environment (not to mention a much better team) than Cal when they played Mizzou and had the game in their hands at the end. I don't see them being fazed by the short trip to Cal. Good luck.
great stuff boom these little tips is one of the reasons that I joined covers. not that i didn't already know how important home field is, but its a good reminder. keep 'em coming! BOL today bro.
GL to all
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great stuff boom these little tips is one of the reasons that I joined covers. not that i didn't already know how important home field is, but its a good reminder. keep 'em coming! BOL today bro.
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nonetheless I think they win by at least a TD. ASU definately shits the bed all the time on the road.
, Boom 
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