i'm not trying to say it will be easy... simply because i feel strongly about it, doesn't mean i think it is a lock, or that it will be easy... Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, without a doubt!
i just think it is hard to measure how much of a liability Alabama's kicking game is in this type of a matchup... if they were playing a team without a top tier defense, this wouldn't be such an issue... i just think it is a little too easy for LSU's defense to contain Alabama's offense, given their inability to convert FG opportunities consistently... and if they are going to give away 6 points or more... or if they are forced out of their comfort zone to try to compensate, it plays into LSU's hands...
on top of that... the fact that every fucking member of the media out there keeps saying "Alabama out-played them the first game"... is only going to fuel LSU's fire...
again, i bet on Alabama the first go-around... and many times, i will make a bet, lose it, and if i had it to do over, i would still make the bet... but after watching that game, i think i was a sucker for laying points with Alabama... because despite what all the media outlets keep saying, i do not agree that Alabama out-played them... i think LSU played the more disciplined, more fundamentally sound, more intelligent football game, and they won for a reason...
throw everything else out the window, and recall the OT in that game... do you think Alabama out-played LSU in OT? cuz i think if they played that OT 10 times... LSU would have won about 8 of them, or more... they just seemed to have such an ENORMOUS advantage once it got into OT... and given the fact that this game will be played largely from 30-yard line to 30-yard line... it means those possessions from 25 yards in (a la overtime) become that much more critical...
and in those situations, i believe LSU has a decided advantage...







