Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Alerts YTD: 38-24 +15.9 units
Please don't worry about the haters on the site, just stay focused on making solid bets and betting the books and everything else will fall into place. Life is so short to worry about all that other nonsense, stay positive and try to help each other is all we really need to worry about
Nice easy cover for Greenboro for the "alert" play. Today's alert play isn't for the faint of heart but I'm on under 127 Wichita St/SIU.
It should be noted that I might be on WSU -16ish as well but haven't decided yet. There are a lot of interesting angles in this one but I'll keep my thoughts short and sweet:
SIU will continue to play with three major contributors as they serve their second of a 3-game suspension (they also have another guard out do to injury as well). They will have numerous players going to see significant minutes that won't be use to this type of road conference game environment.
In their last 5 games (four of which include the four players that will be missing tonight), SIU is averaging just 55ppg (only averaging 47 fg attempts) and isn't getting to the line very often at all.
Both SIU and WSU play a slower tempo of ball game and we can suspect that neither team will get more than about 55 shots up in this game. Their last game two weeks ago went over but had multiple things happen that we don't expect should happen today. First, SIU shot the lights out going 23/44 from the floor (52%) but when WSU finally clamped down on defense they held SIU to just 24 second half points. There were also 47 free throws shot in that game and the teams combined to hit over 70%.
Another angle I really like in this game is the weather. SIU got in to wichita right before the big snowstorm that hit today. Both teams will now be taken out of their normal routines (and I am hearing that neither team will get an official full-length walkthrough/shootaround this afternoon before the game). This should have a negative effect on the flow of the game and scoring in particular. WSU is expecting a big drop off in attendance for this game (unlike their normal 10,500) and I suspect that this could also lead to some flat play early on as well.
This play isn't for the weary and a few hot shooting streaks could send this game easily, but with the suspensions, the first game (WSU got jumped on by SIU and had to fight tooth and nail for a win), the weather and crowd situations, I think this is a nice recipe for the UNDER. I also lean strongly to laying the -16 with WSU and you can view this as a "semi-hedge" to the under play because if SIU is unable to keep WSU off the boards (remember their starting center is suspended) then WSU might put a big number up, easily cover the spread but also put this total over in the process.
I'm on UNDER 127 SIU/WSU for 1-unit on matchbook (if 128 juice gets better on matchbook I'm going to buyout of this bet and buy back on 128)
Rest of my card includes:
Utah +18 - 1-unit
Wilmington/George Mason OVER 130.5 1.5 units (see J-Fen's excellent writeup about it, I agree with his points on the matchup)
MAYBE WSU -16
Excellent call on the under KP!
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