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Tuesday Play Alert

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Posted: #26
 
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Posted: #27

thanks for the work kp. i got under 126 for the siu/wsu game and over 132 for the gmason/nc wilmington game.  hope they hit!

 
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Posted: #28
hey kine, notice u don't play the big games as much,,but do you see any value in Tennesee or are they to much of a jeckel and hyde team for you to take..
 
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Posted: #29
BOL.
 
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Posted: #30
 Thanks for hard work!!!
 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
GL  
 
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Posted: #33
Most books in vegas wont even put this total out...wish they did
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:



You are going deeper than I was...but I will oblige...

Manhattan was down 12-0 and 17-2 six minutes in. This team was clearly outclassed. Shit, they were down by 20 with a minute to play. They were down 21 with 30 ticks on the clock. To say they were 'clearly the right side' is short of a stretch. Thats not what I wanted to get into here, though....

I dont know if you are one of those bettors that, win or lose, always thinks they were on the right side. If you are, then none of this matters.

But, what I was really touching upon is the line - and only the line. Most bettors thought that 18 was 'too high' for Manhattan last night. To get a push Manhattan backers needed more than a miracle - they needed a bucket that didnt exist. Now, I see more of the same people lining up to back Utah because the line is 'too high.'

With the line being, basically, the same, I had to ask.




I definitely meant no offense by my short response as I am short on time with clients coming in and out of my studio.  I respect your opinion and encourage us to discuss these games so I am very happy to do.  In regards to the Manhattan game, certainly you should know that it doesn't matter how a game begins.  Iona hit a bunch of shots early and took a DD leads, it happens. 

Also, we went in to the game knowing that Manhattan was "outclassed" they are "outclassed" by the very definition of being an 18-pt underdog. 

If you have read any of my threads for any length of time you know that I don't throw about "right side" often and will gladly admit if I were on the "wrong side." 

The facts are that Manhattan cut the Iona lead to 5 in the second half and the game was single digits for a nice chunk of the 2nd half AND the first time that Manhattan trailed by more than 18 points THE ENTIRE GAME was with 1:18 seconds left in the game, if that isn't the very definition of being on the right side, then I have no idea what is. 

People were making the same arguments against Manhattan for the past month and they have been a covering machine:

Here are the results when Manhattan has been a DD underdog for the last 5 weeks:
Manhattan +17.5 Rider - Rider wins by 10 (Manhattan cover)
Manhattan +16 Florida Atlantic - FAU wins by 7 (Manhattan cover)
Manhattan +13.5 Loyola Maryland - LMU wins by 12 (Man cover)
Manhattan +19.5 Fairfield - Fairfield wins by 2 (Manhattan cover)
Manhattan +12 Siena - Siena wins by 7 (Manhattan cover)

In every one of these cases the Manhattan lines were in fact "too high" and I believe the same was true last night as well. 

I'm very glad to discuss any of this with you and have always appreciated your comments in my thread, if I came off snarky with my first post I'm sorry, it wasn't my intention.    
 
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Posted: #35
 GL tonight KP!!
 
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Posted: #36

I'm gonna bite on that George Mason over as well - got it at 131 (1U)

Good Luck Everyone

 
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Posted: #37
all plays posted i love...good job professor!   gl  ryno
 
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Posted: #38
[Quote: Originally Posted by KineProfessor]

What are the totals now, right before I posted I saw 127 everywhere for the SIU game.  I paid an extra .10 juice to get the 130.5 on Matchbook as opposed to the 131.5 its currently at right now.
[/Quote

for some reason you can't be the totals on bodog.com
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by She7154:

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



What are the totals now, right before I posted I saw 127 everywhere for the SIU game.  I paid an extra .10 juice to get the 130.5 on Matchbook as opposed to the 131.5 its currently at right now.
[/Quote

for some reason you can't be the totals on bodog.com

BetUS always posts their totals pretty close to game time. Maybe Bodog is doing the same thing. 
 
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Posted: #40
Just to expand on that Man.-Iona game,I was at work and was watching it a bit in the FH,Iona was hot to start which is easy to tell without watching,lol.But at the half they get to 12,I took them sec half +7 which gave me 19,after Iona,who must of hit 10  3s in the sec half,4 in a row after it got down to 5 at one point,but thats their game,shooting 3s.But after the first time Iona got the 21 point lead,with the next few poss.,Man.was again down 18,at the point where Iona could of ran the clock out up 18,Man fouled,after a couple more of those it was again 21 points,Man.last shot was a fast lay-up that was made with a foul called,FT made and back to 18 point lead.about 20 secs left or a bit under that,they finally quit,my point being that it should of landed on 18 if Man.didnt decide to extend the game,which we were lucky to get back to the 18 when the Coach called off the fouling.
What a way to spend time at work watching that game,
 
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Posted: #41
Get it!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #42
I am concerned that Witchy lays 85 on the Salukes here,  They put 74 up on them in the S, Illinois gym when Teague and Cleveland were in the lineup.  This game could get out of hand early and turn into one of those up and down shit fests we often see when garbage time starts at the 20 minute mark of the second half.

The empty gym can be looked at both ways. Defensive intensity can go way down in that type of environment. I hope we don't wind up 84-50 or some crazy thing like that.

Those that did not get the open may be better served to wait and see if this one continues its downward movement. At 125ish it may be worth a small over play.

Just my $.02 KP, I know that we respect each other enough that I post a little contrarian opinion.

Good Luck tonight

 
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Posted: #43
BOL to all today....keep them wheels spinning KP!
 
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Posted: #44
KP, what's the difference between a 1-unit play and a 1-unit alert play? 
 
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Posted: #45
Not sure why there are haters.. keep up the good work man
 
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Posted: #46
Good luck prof! Just a question on your plays. I know your alert plays are gold. Any reason you have 1 unit on the alert under but 1.5 units on the G mason over?
 
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Posted: #47
KP,  
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I'm very glad to discuss any of this with you and have always appreciated your comments in my thread, if I came off snarky with my first post I'm sorry, it wasn't my intention.    


You sort of did, but most people think I am a dick, so I gave you the benefit of the doubt, lol.

Last night was the first time a majority of people thought Manhattan was getting too many. I dont give a crap about the public and public percentages, but when I saw more Manhattan backers than Iona backers here, I realized I should look at the other side. Anytime we are at Covers and you see love for the dog over the favorite, something stinks.

Mostly this has to do with my god-given fear of being on the same side as certain cappers at Covers. I saw many of them lining up for Manhattan last night and some of those same guys are singing the same swan song about Utah tonight. You are too, but you arent really in the same league as most of these people I talk about - you are a long-term winner.

Just like to pick the brain of the good cappers. Most of the time the banter here is less than witty.

Always have good write-ups, keep up the good work, Kine.



 
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Posted: #49
Thanks for the plays KP.  Going against the Utah pick though.  I know SDSU has  trouble covering big numbers, but I expect them to come out with an attitude tonight and make a statement after their lackluster performance vs TCU(no offense to TCU...they played well).
GLTA                                  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Just to expand on that Man.-Iona game,I was at work and was watching it a bit in the FH,Iona was hot to start which is easy to tell without watching,lol.But at the half they get to 12,I took them sec half +7 which gave me 19,after Iona,who must of hit 10  3s in the sec half,4 in a row after it got down to 5 at one point,but thats their game,shooting 3s.But after the first time Iona got the 21 point lead,with the next few poss.,Man.was again down 18,at the point where Iona could of ran the clock out up 18,Man fouled,after a couple more of those it was again 21 points,Man.last shot was a fast lay-up that was made with a foul called,FT made and back to 18 point lead.about 20 secs left or a bit under that,they finally quit,my point being that it should of landed on 18 if Man.didnt decide to extend the game,which we were lucky to get back to the 18 when the Coach called off the fouling.
What a way to spend time at work watching that game,


About that bolded part...the fast lay-up never went in the basket. You were given those 2 points because the refs missed the call. What was a 3 point play, should have been 2 shots.

Pretty crazy ending. The first time I have ever seen one like it and I have been at this for a while.

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