Summit League Conference Tournament...

also jesron i sent you a  friend request

jesron thanks buddy 4 responding i hate to be an a$$hole but i found out today UMKC is leaving for the WAC conference. Why? IDK

packers1992... for the last five years this league has been in flux so it doesn't surprise me.  Happy to hear it though.  I didn't think anything you said or asked was "a$$hole like" so no worries!

1 unit on NDSU -9 1H

Ndsu tomorrow night is a banger. Lets go rabbits. Can't wait to go to games.

Last night I said to myself what am I going to do with the Jacks open at 7.5 (which is where I thought the line should be) and sure enough it does.  FRICK!  I think there is little to no chance the Jacks lose but not sure they cover this line.  IPFW is playing insane basketball right now and have for the past month.  It is not just the Frank Gaines show boys and girls this team has really come together.  I lean Jacks 1H, Jacks ML but actually lean IPFW full game line.  Really wish I could get a line on the total in this one.

Now the NDSU and WIU game is a bit harder.  If Terrel Parks were to play I would make a VERY LARGE bet on WIU but he is once again doubtful and even if he played I am not sure how effective he would be to begin with.  Yes everyone saw NDSU pull away against a bad UMKC team in the 2H.  Yes NDSU probably should have covered the full game line but for the 4 or 5 3 pointers by UMKC in the last 2 minutes but such is life.  Both teams play excellent defense and WIU has been more efficient of late on their offensive side of the ball. Don't forget that NDSU is game two in two days while WIU had a day off.  Plus I promise you that this Jackrabbit crowd (Jacks play early game and NDSU the later game) is going to stick around and cheer for WIU because any Jackrabbit fan wants nothing to do with NDSU (not saying WIU is a joke by any means either).  Last year in the Summit League in this every same quarterfinal match the Jacks were the #2 seed and the #1 seed was Oral Roberts.  Their all-american Morrison was frustrated by the crowd and Southern Utah played the game of the season and upset Oral Roberts.  The place was blue and yellow (Jacks colors) and they were 100% behind Southern Utah and believe me it picked them up.  They even acknowledged the crowd after the game.  The same will be said here.  This leads me to want to take the points in this game.  Like the Jacks game I am going to wait a little and see how the line moves.  BOL!

I'm on the Jacks for the game but will wait until it drops some more (already seen it go from 8 to 7.5) than buy 1.5 points-

I love NDSU today in revenge spot with Braun playing so well-W ILL has not impressed me lately

Thoughts?

See the two posts above.  BOL!

More thoughts on these games...

IPFW is 12-4 ATS as an underdog this year

They have 8 straight wins ATS

They are 4-1 ATS when getting between 7-9 points this year

South Dakota State is 6-1 ATS versus IPFW the last three years (this is relevant because the same team for the most part has been together for the Jacks during this time) but split ATS this year

Jacks are only 3-5 ATS their last 8 games

NDSU is 13-8 ATS as a favorite this year but only 8-9 ATS versus conference foes

Surprisingly they are 7-3 ATS with a days rest this year (cannot figure out how that is possible they would play 10 games with a days rest but that is what scoresandodds say I suspect this stat for what it is worth)

However, they are 2-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record; 0-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record after playing 15 games; and 0-4 ATS versus good defensive teams (allowing 64 or less points)

While WIU is 2-1 this year and 5-1 last three years ATS at a neutral site (remember WIU made the championship last year too being NDSU in the first round)

WIU is 2-0 ATS versus teams with winning record afte playing 15 games; 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams (teams allowing 64 or less points); and WIU is 6-1 SU and ATS versus NDSU the last year years with their sole loss coming at NDSU in 2010.

That being said WIU is 0-5 ATS their last five games and 3-5 ATS their last 8 games.

So what does this all mean?  Well if trends hold true and the teams play like they can play then IPFW will keep it close but lose.  Both are built the same way offensively and defensively.  The only difference is that the Jacks are better and basically at home.  Does that make the 8 point difference.  Not sure about that which is why I lean IPFW.

NDSU and WIU are also very similar.  The difference is that NDSU has a much better offense.  WIU love playing close games which is why they are 0-5 ATS the last five (they have been favored in all those games but one while going 3-2 SU in that stretch).  If a team cannot pull away offensively against WIU then they have them where they want them.  This could not be more clear than their 6-0 versus good defensive teams.  What would worry me if you are a NDSU backer is the fact that WIU has had and continues to have NDSU's number and frankly how poor of a record NDSU has against good teams and good defensive teams.  But for Terrel Parks this play would be HUGE so I am sitting and waiting.  BOL!

My take:

The following are my plays:

SDSU ML -360 for 2 units

IPFW +8.5 for 1.5 units

WIU +6 for 1.5 units

SDSU women pk & WIU +10.5 -120 for 1.5 units

BOL!

I think SDSU wins between 3-5.  I still lean SDSU 1H but I have not had a good record with 1H plays in a while so I am going to let it pass.  I think WIU wins straight up.  BOL!

Jesron:

Let me get this strait:

You can get a line on NCAA women's basketball but cannot get a total on Fort Wayne vs jacks or bison vs leathernecks

??

Where are you betting guy?

jdnmoney... my local.  5dimes has womens lines and he trusts those lines but since he has been taken from some people (not me) for big dough on totals on small college games he will not give me a line on Summit League totals unless it is nationally televised.  In other words tomorrow night I will have a line since it is on ESPN.

I really like North dakota state 1st half -3. Braun is back and their looking for revenge on both losses. Both games this year ND state jumped out at halftime and collapse the 2nd half. If parks is out I think ND state will win this game. 

that damn UMKC team was awesome in last 2 mins,lol I went from looking like a cover to a loss,they were down 13 and still fouling and as I was watching I thought if they miss this 3 I still might win,as you know they hit it and 2 more to end at 9,.
But had a good week so didnt bother me to much,lol.
Yeh I played W.ILL a few times during non conf.time,loved the game they were getting points,but would of rather had totals,this year really sucked with amount of totals to bet on,but Im getting all of them now,so on your Jacks what total would you bet,over Im guessing??I have not looked at lines yet,wanted to see your take on the Summit first.
GL today

If I had to play 1H in that game I would lean NDSU too only because WIU is a notorious slow starter.  They were down what 4 against USD at half despite laying 6.

Jesron:

I can get u a very reputable local contact in the SF area in needed. That is pretty bad that he won't honor lines unless its on national TV...

Why don't u just wager on 5Dimes? Very reliable and smooth payouts