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Starting up the ole System plays from last year

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Posted: #176

Hey Bandos,,,i was thinking ,,what if we look back to ATS ranking of these W/L teams to see how Vegas supported them in 08/09

Cleveland St 0-3,,,,,,08/09 year closing # 39,,,,, 18-12,,,DTC

Santa Clara 0-3,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#201......12-14,,close% DTC

TCU 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 139,,,,,,13-13 ditto % DTC

Oregon 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08-09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 279,,,,,,9-21,,DTNC

Indiana 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08-09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#178,,,,,,,,12-13,,,DTC

Depaul 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 271,,,,,,,,9-17,,,DTNC

Wright St 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 71,,,,,,,,,16-13,DTC

Bill & Mary 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 267,,,,,,,,7-15,,DTNC

Sac St 4-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 261,,,,,,,,8-15 DTNC

So does vegas continue to support the better ATS teams from last year or throw them to the wolves,,,,,,,,,,,i may have to chart them as i have all last years stats on all 281 teams,,As you can see some per last years ATS are OVER their heads and others need a cover,

DTC due to cover

DTNC Due to not cover

 
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Posted: #177
Ugly start

WVA, St Louis, VT

 
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Posted: #178
If you find any more plz advise,,,,,

 Austin Peay 3-0 v Drake 0-1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Drake

NC Central  3-0v. Iowa 0-2( another omit)

UAB 3-0 v. FL A+M 0-2,,( think we need to omit these Div 2 teams)

 
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Posted: #179

i did not have texas A&M as a play,,,,,,,,,

Vt wasn't a play either as i see it

St Louis def was,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #180
A+M beat Samford on 11/20 but covers does not recognize it as a lined game when it was, as stated above, thus they were 3-0.

Drexel was 3-0 right?  Thus VT was a play (theoretically)

Georgia
Columbia !!!!
 
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Posted: #181

COLUMBIA covers against Syracuse,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

vegas knows what it is doing,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,bring in those sheep for a FLEECING,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #182

sorry thought VT was  virginia tech,,too much liquoryes drexel is a winner,,,,,,,,,4-0,,,,,,,,,,,

Syrcause first 5-0 ATS to not cover

Now we need N Mexico to do the same,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #183

maybe were now starting to find the # where we pound a play,,,,,

+5 or - 5,,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #184
really when you look at it who in their right mind would not play Syrcause,,esp against a Columbia,,,,,,,,,,tell me how many JP's played this correctly,,,,,,,,,,,,,,think the books cleaned up,,,,
 
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Posted: #185
They did but the late money was on Columbia.

 
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Posted: #186
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:

Hey Bandos,,,i was thinking ,,what if we look back to ATS ranking of these W/L teams to see how Vegas supported them in 08/09

Cleveland St 0-3,,,,,,08/09 year closing # 39,,,,, 18-12,,,DTC

Santa Clara 0-3,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#201......12-14,,close% DTC

TCU 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 139,,,,,,13-13 ditto % DTC

Oregon 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08-09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 279,,,,,,9-21,,DTNC

Indiana 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08-09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#178,,,,,,,,12-13,,,DTC

Depaul 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 271,,,,,,,,9-17,,,DTNC

Wright St 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 71,,,,,,,,,16-13,DTC

Bill & Mary 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 267,,,,,,,,7-15,,DTNC

Sac St 4-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 261,,,,,,,,8-15 DTNC

So does vegas continue to support the better ATS teams from last year or throw them to the wolves,,,,,,,,,,,i may have to chart them as i have all last years stats on all 281 teams,,As you can see some per last years ATS are OVER their heads and others need a cover,

DTC due to cover

DTNC Due to not cover



I am always looking for a way to LIMIT the number of plays IF we get a better percentage.  I am VERY pleased, despite a rocky day today with the 0-3 teams - they hit at a high rate but I want to look at the 3-0 teams more closely.  I did a regression of how much they covered by and found nothing, then I did one of whether theoir TREND was Up (ie they covered by a higher number) or DOWN (ie the covered by a lower number)

EX: team A covered by 15, then by 5 - that would be DOWN

I gotta look at today, but I found that teams whose last game covered by More than game 2 in the streak were 4-1 (ie UP or even) and Down was 1-3.

I'll keep tracking.
 
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Posted: #187

adding Drexel as a fade tomorrow 4-0

texas A&M as a fade at 3-0

Duke as a fade at 3-0

Mass as a play at 0-3

Iowa St as a Fade tomorrow at 4-0

Georgia as a play at 0-4

possibly more to come,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #188

Cleveland St 0-3,,,,,,08/09 year closing # 39,,,,, 18-12,,,DTC

Santa Clara 0-3,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#201......12-14,,close% DTC

TCU 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 139,,,,,,13-13 ditto % DTC

Oregon 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08-09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 279,,,,,,9-21,,DTNC

Indiana 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08-09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#178,,,,,,,,12-13,,,DTC

Depaul 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 271,,,,,,,,9-17,,,DTNC

Wright St 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 71,,,,,,,,,16-13,DTC

Bill & Mary 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 267,,,,,,,,7-15,,DTNC

Sac St 4-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,08/09,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 261,,,,,,,,8-15 DTNC


So throw out OREGON and WRIGHT ST.

Tracking....

 
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Posted: #189

 Drexel as a fade tomorrow 4-0,,,08/09 ,,,# 15 @ 8-10

texas A&M as a fade at 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#34 @ 16-10

Duke as a fade at 3-0 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#189 @17-18

Mass as a play at 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, #223 11-15

Iowa St as a Fade tomorrow at 4-0 ,,,,,,,,,,#254 @9-15

Georgia as a play at 0-4 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,##240 @11-16

Last years end of season stats ATS

 
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Posted: #190
will monitor final results and post in AM,,need to take a break,,see u then,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #191
in the AM
 
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Posted: #192

still Pm but more to post,,,,,,,ADDING,,plz check

more results from Friday

Florida 3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,#229 12-16 in 08/09

Portland 4-0,,,,,,,,,,#46  16-11

St Bonny 3-0,,,,,,,,,,#89  13-11

V Tech 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,#211,,,12-16

Bradly 0-3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,# 78,,,15-13

still a few left,,will do in AM,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

 
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Posted: #193
System Play

Vermont +4.5
Haw +8.5
W VA -9
ST Louis +8
Georgia -12
Columbia +27.5
Minnesota -7.5

System Lean
St Nicholls +15 (its moving toward 16- gonna wait til at least 15.5 as it is on some books already
HOU -3 Should have stayed with inital reverse lean

 
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Posted: #194
Looking inside the bloodbath that was yesterday we find:

0-3 teams
1-1

3-0 teams
0-4
5-0 teams
1-1 (due to info about HAW found on this board I bought out of this and almost hit a middle!  Thanks guys)

This brings the total numbers to

0-3 teams
9-3-1
0-4 teams
1-0
Reverse
1-0

3-0 teams
7-9
4-0
1-2
5-0
1-1
Reverse
0-1

Pretty clear here Bob.  We know from your tracking that last year had longer and more numerous win streaks.  It seems that a team on a win streak is playing well and with the young kids that might be contagious and they keep it up.  Whatever the reason, betting to end winning streaks is not a way to make money, at least not yet.

Also, there are so many winning streaks it requires either a huge bankroll or a small unit if you are going to double yup the bet to make every streak profitable.  I currently have lost a unit on 6 teams, and 3 units on NMEX.  I will continue to bet that those streaks end but will NOT bet against a 3-0 team again until it becomes more reliable.
 
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Posted: #195

morn Bandos,,,,,,,i think the real problem is i never started system this early with all the scrub div 2 teams mixed into this,,,,,,,,

yesterday i noticed all 0-2 teams that played went 6-2,,,,,,,,,,,,possibly per showing maybe we need to focus on losing teams with 0-2,0-3,0-4 and forget the others or follow them but not play them or if so very weakly,,poss parlay them till we see where this goes,,,,,,,,,How can you play a team like hawaii with its first wagerable game vs New Mexico who is on a tear at 5-0 and now 6-0 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,I haven't played many games so far as this to me is still a trial period and to get an understanding of the flow of plays and situations accordingly,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #196
forget the others or follow them but not play them

YUP YUP


Trial period, yes.  small plays for me...
 
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Posted: #197

Teams today,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,with L streaks

Cleve st 0-3

Santa clara 0-3

TCU 0-3

V Tech 0-3

Bradly 0-3

Oklahoma 0-4

umass 0-3

Oregon 0-3

Teams with W Streaks,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

depaul 3-0

Wright St 3-0

Wm & Mary 3-0

Florida 3-0

St Bonny 3-0

Samford 3-0 per covers

Austin Peay 3-0

San Diego 4-0

Sac St 4-0

Drexel 4-0

Iowa St 4-0

Nccen 3-0,,,,,,np

I say we raise the # to 4 or above as then the # of plays are reduced drastically unless something strikes your fancy,,,,,,

 

 
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Posted: #198
System would play 0-3 DTC
Cleveland ST
Santa Clara
Oregon
V Tech

4-0 DTNC
TX A+M, play Minn
IA ST, Play NW
Drexel, play Toledo
Sac ST, play UC Riverside
SD, Play WAST

3-0 DTNC
Wright ST, Play NE
Depaul, play Det
Austin Peay, Play Drake
FL, play Rutgers
W+M, play Wake (maybe a reverse)
NC Central, play IA

Only thing I have played is CLEV ST.

 
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Posted: #199
We had the same idea - yours is better...
 
 
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Posted: #200
OK and TCU look like potential reverses.
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