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Sloop Saturday

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Posted: #1
218-172-8

2-2 Thursday. Nothing Friday.

Time for an avatar change. The colorful sailboat was getting kind of flamboyant and obnoxious. If you don't know the current picture, shame on you. It's Scott Wood of NC State, current holder of the ACC consecutive-made free-throw record. He's made 63 in a row, dating back to last season. I really admire his discipline, his unselfishness, and just they way he plays fundamental basketball. He creates so many opportunities for his teammates, rarely turns the ball over, makes a ton of threes, and take good shots. 

Anyway...three for me at the moment:

UNLV -3.5
FIU +8.5
Tennessee Tech -2

Some free-flowing thoughts:

So many awesome games on Saturday, but DAMN these lines are sharp. I was strongly leaning FSU, Mizzou, Tennessee, and a few other big ones, but was expecting more value on all of them. The only one I'm OK with is the Iona line. Anything under a possession would have had to been an auto-play on Iona, but -4.5 makes it untouchable. Now I can watch and root for MC, no strings attached.

So many thoughts on so many games, but I'll just stick to my picks for time's sake. Check the post below this one.

Definitely adding more plays, just need to dig a little deeper...GL ALL...and thanks for all the nice comments recently...i really appreciate them...there are some real a-holes on this board, but there are definitely some awesome people too, and thanks for those who drop by from time to just wish good luck or offer thoughts or anything...sometimes i fail to miss an angle, i am far from flawless...would love to hear thoughts if anyone has some...GL
 
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Posted: #2
UNLV -3.5 @ Wyoming: It's a little silly to be looking at preseason rankings when we're already 20+ games in the season, but I'm going to do it anyway to help establish a point. Wyoming was only 5 votes away from finishing in last place in the MWC preseason poll, and they were placed last in CBB Prospectus (my Holy Bible for the first half of the season). So how have they gotten to become #52 on KenPom? (Obviously, by going 17-5 this season...but dig a little deeper...)

Wyoming played the #336 most difficult nonconference schedule, where they played 13 of their first 16 game against teams who are currently ranked #217 on Kenpom or worse. They have ONE win against a top-100 RPI team: #77 Colorado.And I've called that game a bluff before....Colorado had 1 day to prepare for that game, and Wyoming had 6 full days. Colorado was likely caught off guard. The other three games Wyoming has played against top-100 teams have all been double digit losses.

And now they play the red-hot Runnin' Rebels, winners of 12 of their last 13, who are arguably the most athletic, frenetic, and dangerous team they've seen all year. UNLV has been just half-decent on the road, and Wyoming's 7-3 ATS at home, but I don't really mind. They're still 20-3 for the year on the #79 overall schedule, with all of those losses coming to teams that are better than Wyoming. They've beaten UNC, Illinois, Cal, and New Mexico, Nevada, and some others. I'm impressed.


It's going to be EXTREMELY difficult for Wyoming to keep up with a team as fast-paced as UNLV. They are already one of the ten slowest teams in the nation (#336 pace), and now they have to play with a shallow bench? Wyoming did not play a good game at all vs TCU, and I think this one will be even worse. Wyoming's lost 20 consecutive games to ranked teams and has lost 15 of 17 against UNLV.

FIU +8.5 @ FAU: These teams hate each other. I can imagine the hate is deeper for FIU. Not only did they lose this year @ FAU by a bucket, but they've lost the last FOUR games by three or fewer points. Some quotes:

"These games have been absolutely insane, they have been nuts," FAU coach Mike Jarvis said. "Last year we led for eight seconds and we won. But we will take it."

"This is a rivalry game. It is not as big as Duke and Carolina, but to us it is," said junior point guard Ray Taylor, FAU.

"It was a terrible way to lose a game, from the foul line when there is absolutely nothing you can do about it," Isiah Thomas.

9.5 is a lot of points to give in this game for an extremely bitter FIU team that is 9-2 ATS on the road and still has the first game fresh on their minds, as it was played just two weeks ago.

And an irrelevant fact: the FIU women's team also lost to FAU in a 50-49 heartbreaker in January.

Tennessee Tech -2 should get revenge on the road after losing an embarrassing one to Jacksonville state by 1 point at home a couple weeks ago. It was a heartbreaker, too: Jacksonville State was down 2 with 6 seconds left and the ball....they made a layup, got fouled on it, and made the free throw to get the three point play, and the win.

Aside from beating Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State has only beaten ONE other team in the KenPom top 300 all season, which was #207 Tennessee State. Going strictly off of KenPom rankings, beating Tennessee Tech was the program's best win since 2009. They've won 4 of the last 5, but those were all cupcakes. They are #331 in the country at effective height, and I'm guessing that plays into them getting outrebounded 33-18 the first time they met. They are horrible offensively (and not that great at defense, either), and it will be very hard for them to keep up with Tennessee Tech, who is 57th in D1 at PPG, and #38 at FG%, at 47.4%. Tennessee Tech played a reasonable non-conference schedule, is playing well, has won 4 of the last 5, and is the #8th most experienced team in the entire country. I'll lay these road points and will be shocked if Jacksonville State beats them twice.

Also, Tennessee Tech is 8-3 ATS on the road this year. It helps that they just put up 94 on the road @ Austin Peay. And the game before that (at home)? They dropped 98 on SIU Edwardsville.
 
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Posted: #3
good stuff bud, looks like we're opposite on UNLV. Should be an interesting one 
 
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Posted: #4
UMASS -2
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by sloop703:

UMASS -2

Losing to Xavier really had to sting for GW. They were leading the entire game, but allowed Xavier to steal it away at the end. Xavier's biggest lead on Wednesday was only by 2 points; but GW turned into GW, and allowed X to take the lead in the final minute, and GW spoiled their final possession, even with a full shot clock and a put-back attempt. 

So now they welcome an embarrassed 16-6 UMass, who just lost a tough one on the road to an inferior URI. UMass is the fastest team in the entire nation, and they can put up points like nobody's business (31st in PPG at 76.8). They also rebound very well (5th in country at rebounding, 40.8 RPG). Those numbers are absolutely inflated due to UMass's pace, but they're still very efficient and have only been held to less than 70 points four times this entire season.

GW, on the other hand, is #304 at PPG (61.6), and #251 at rebounds per game (33.2). They're not very good at...anything, really..and haven't beaten an RPI top 100 team this entire season. They're an awful 6-14 ATS this season, and are 4-12 in their last 16 games. UMass's ATS numbers are about .500, but they're 11-4 in the last 15 meetings with GW.

So I like UMass to bounce back here. They haven't lost two consecutive games all season. In fact, in all five games this year where they're coming off a loss, they've won by double digits. A few of them weren't easy games, either: #131 ECU, #138 Charlotte, and #113 Richmond.
 
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Posted: #6
Creighton -1.5

They just don't stop winning, or covering. UNI was able to keep it close @ Creighton earlier in the season, but Koch was playing a lot better for them then, and has been been quiet as of late. UNI has a very good home court, but Creighton is seemingly unbeatable right now, and I find it hard to believe they contain the #1 shooting offense in the country as well as they did last time. UNI's good, don't get me wrong, but they're really not all that spectacular at defensive efficiency, which could be very problematic if McDermott starts catching fire. UNI is #202 at defensive effective FG% and #208 at defensive effective 3pt%. Creighton is #1 at offensive FG% and #1 at effective 3pt%.

Also: Anthony James (UNI's leading scorer and point guard) is questionable for the game, and has been held out of practice all week due to a tailbone injury. I don't know if he'll play (I'm guessing he probably will), but he's still not in great shape.
 
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^^^^^just to point out, Koch's value comes on the defensive end of the ball. He's two inches taller and 25 pounds heavier than McDermott, and he was able to frustrate him throughout the last meeting.

Unfortunately for UNI, McDermott is the best player in the country at the moment. I believe he finds a way to score on whichever man is guarding him.
 
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Posted: #8

You're a must-read for me every day, Sloop.  Thanks.

Love the Tenn Tech pick.  One of the first games I circled...

BOL

 
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Posted: #9
Solid,
 Bol this weekend
 
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Posted: #10
i have to make this play for friday:

Rider +1.5 2h
 
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Posted: #11
rider has already guaranteed a non-cover for the game so i'd say they're a solid play. i will tail u on saturday just on your confidence alone.
tr
 
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Posted: #13
Adding:

Iona -2(b .5)
William & Mary +8.5

I must admit, betting on Iona is semi-hedging my loyalty to Manhattan basketball. My brother attended MC, so I'm a little biased here. I would honestly love to see Manhattan win, but I doubt it happens. This line dropped from 4.5 to 2.5, and now it's an automatic play for me. Iona has HUGE revenge to get here after allowing Manhattan to erase a 17 point deficit on Iona's home court with just 8 minutes left, and Manhattan made a buzzer beater for the win. Absolutely ridiculous. I find it hard to believe Machado and MoMo don't roll in this one. Hoping I'm wrong.
 
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Posted: #14
Couldnt play UNLV with the huge lookahead they have.  Plus they are stuck mid travel right now as their flight to Denver was cancelled.  Now have to fly to Casper and try to take a bus 200+ miles.  Hearing 25% chance game i cancelled
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by sloop703:

i have to make this play for friday:

Rider +1.5 2h

bang bang

Tale of two halves. Rider always plays better in the 2nd half. And it was ridiculous to think Loyola would keep the intensity and that Rider would continue struggling that much after just scoring 12 in the first half. Rider came out looking like a team that was just getting embarrassed on national television, and Loyola was playing with absolutely no urgency whatsoever. Rider went on a 15-1 run to start the 2nd half, and that was about all I needed to watch.
 
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Posted: #16
Any thoughts on O$U @ Wisconsin tmrw?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

Couldnt play UNLV with the huge lookahead they have.  Plus they are stuck mid travel right now as their flight to Denver was cancelled.  Now have to fly to Casper and try to take a bus 200+ miles.  Hearing 25% chance game i cancelled

Thanks for the info Stuck. You're the freakin man.

Definitely still riding it out though. This line opened so low and it's already at 4.5. I was kicking myself for like two days after buying off of that SDSU/Wyoming game, and that was the worst travel difficulty I've heard of all year and arguably the biggest game for Wyoming in years. I'm going to go with the "these are college kids, they will be fine" mentality, and feel great about fading Wyoming and taking the red-hot Rebs.

Plus, that SDSU rematch isn't until next Saturday. I don't think they'll be too distracted for this game

Looking forward to seeing your card tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by BurghCappers:

Any thoughts on O$U @ Wisconsin tmrw?

Oh man. Gonna be a great game. I'm so tempted to just say OSU rolls. But I dunno. It feels square. Saw this stat on Twitter: Wisconsin is 13-2 ATS at home vs .700 or better teams & 9-3 ATS as conference favorites or dogs of < 3 points. Definitely leaning Ohio State. Might add it. Not sure.
 
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Posted: #19
Ohio State -2
Tennessee State +1.5

That's it for the night
 
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Posted: #20
leans: MTSU, FSU, Vanderbilt, Marquette, Buffalo, Missouri, UCSB, Oral Roberts, a bunch
 
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Posted: #21
good luck u are the best
 
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Posted: #22
took your first 6 picks parlayed them for 50$...payout....$2,370.60....what the hell i have faith........may be your new number one fan
 
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Posted: #23
BOL sloop
 
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Posted: #24
Sloop, any reason why you like Vandy on the road? Florida seems to play extremely well at home. I like Florida in the first half of this one. Thoughts on this one?
 
 
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GL SLoop
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