is anyone else as nervous about ArkRock as I am....the fundamental reason for the system is "crappy teams at home laying big points to crappier teams when BOTH teams basically have nothing left to play for" Right?
ArkSt. is tied for their division lead, ArkRock is out of it...
This is ArkSt.'s last game of the season (senior day) and ArkRock still has one more home game left....
I may just break the system rule of "playing them all" and avoid this one...BOL to the rest of you.
MM
I posted the above last night, and saw similar things in the Bowling Green and UNCWill games so avoided them as well. Went heavier on the last 2 games last night and cashed nicely. I've said it several times in here before, and will echo those same comments....Fundamentally this system is a sound system for looking at lower quality teams playing one another late in the season when neither has nothing left to play for. But when you have teams still fighting for conf/div titles that just happen to be outside the 180, or have heavy senior leadership playing on senior day, we have to be careful. Therefore it's a good base to begin your normal handicapping, but not a clearcut play in every instance. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the lines have been coming in lower than normal for these games, or that many websites out there were posting several of these games as their best picks a few weeks ago when KP had his first initial big writeup......The books have adjusted. And if you go back and read his first writeup, he made mention of a lot of these topics and potential concerns. I thank him immensely for bringing this "trend" to our attention, and will use it in some shape or form every year as a basis to find games, I would not usually play.
All that being said, I'm staying away from the doormat of the MAAC in Marist today. Both teams are playing their last game of the season. Marist's roster is loaded with underclassman and virtually no contributing Seniors. Siena is lead by two significant contributing Seniors playing their last games of their careers. The line came out spot on in the 14-15 range, and of course is moving against us, most likely because it's a "system play".
GL to all of us going forward and to those that decide to play it anyway. And once again....Thanks KP for all your hardwork in bringing this angle to our attention.
MM
0
Quote Originally Posted by Marketmaker:
is anyone else as nervous about ArkRock as I am....the fundamental reason for the system is "crappy teams at home laying big points to crappier teams when BOTH teams basically have nothing left to play for" Right?
ArkSt. is tied for their division lead, ArkRock is out of it...
This is ArkSt.'s last game of the season (senior day) and ArkRock still has one more home game left....
I may just break the system rule of "playing them all" and avoid this one...BOL to the rest of you.
MM
I posted the above last night, and saw similar things in the Bowling Green and UNCWill games so avoided them as well. Went heavier on the last 2 games last night and cashed nicely. I've said it several times in here before, and will echo those same comments....Fundamentally this system is a sound system for looking at lower quality teams playing one another late in the season when neither has nothing left to play for. But when you have teams still fighting for conf/div titles that just happen to be outside the 180, or have heavy senior leadership playing on senior day, we have to be careful. Therefore it's a good base to begin your normal handicapping, but not a clearcut play in every instance. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the lines have been coming in lower than normal for these games, or that many websites out there were posting several of these games as their best picks a few weeks ago when KP had his first initial big writeup......The books have adjusted. And if you go back and read his first writeup, he made mention of a lot of these topics and potential concerns. I thank him immensely for bringing this "trend" to our attention, and will use it in some shape or form every year as a basis to find games, I would not usually play.
All that being said, I'm staying away from the doormat of the MAAC in Marist today. Both teams are playing their last game of the season. Marist's roster is loaded with underclassman and virtually no contributing Seniors. Siena is lead by two significant contributing Seniors playing their last games of their careers. The line came out spot on in the 14-15 range, and of course is moving against us, most likely because it's a "system play".
GL to all of us going forward and to those that decide to play it anyway. And once again....Thanks KP for all your hardwork in bringing this angle to our attention.
KP, How's everything bud. I've seen some posts on here saying they think the Linesmakers have adjusted the line(the opening lines) on these System play games. Do you think that could be possible? I for one don't think so but I was interested to see what yoy think. Let me know. BTW. Keep up the great work!
0
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Always bud
KP, How's everything bud. I've seen some posts on here saying they think the Linesmakers have adjusted the line(the opening lines) on these System play games. Do you think that could be possible? I for one don't think so but I was interested to see what yoy think. Let me know. BTW. Keep up the great work!
KP, How's everything bud. I've seen some posts on here saying they think the Linesmakers have adjusted the line(the opening lines) on these System play games. Do you think that could be possible? I for one don't think so but I was interested to see what yoy think. Let me know. BTW. Keep up the great work!
The opening lines this season are very similar to the opening lines from last season, so when you specifically reference "the opening line," no Vegas isn't adjusting them. The difference is what the lines are doing once they open.
Again, the main reason for this isn't because "Vegas is on to the system" or any other variation of that argument that you will hear in these threads. Lines move because of money and the truth is that the big syndicates are giving out these "smaller school" plays with way more regularity. When that happens, the lines get hammered and Vegas responds - its very straight-forward and very simple.
Most people who play for picks want two things: 1. The want to win their bets but AS IMPORTANTLY 2. The want to WATCH their bets too and many of these pay services know that. So many of their plays will involve ranked teams and/or team from one of the big 6 conferences. This season I have been contacted by tons of people reporting to me that big pay services have been giving system plays to their pay clients. The reason this sticks out is that these services that have been giving out teams like Texas, Duke, Uconn all year and now they are all of the sudden giving out South Alabama, Citadel and SE Missouri St and that sticks out like a sore thumb. If big pay services continue to give out these smaller school games, we will continue to see the lines move against us for the rest of the season.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Harvey23:
KP, How's everything bud. I've seen some posts on here saying they think the Linesmakers have adjusted the line(the opening lines) on these System play games. Do you think that could be possible? I for one don't think so but I was interested to see what yoy think. Let me know. BTW. Keep up the great work!
The opening lines this season are very similar to the opening lines from last season, so when you specifically reference "the opening line," no Vegas isn't adjusting them. The difference is what the lines are doing once they open.
Again, the main reason for this isn't because "Vegas is on to the system" or any other variation of that argument that you will hear in these threads. Lines move because of money and the truth is that the big syndicates are giving out these "smaller school" plays with way more regularity. When that happens, the lines get hammered and Vegas responds - its very straight-forward and very simple.
Most people who play for picks want two things: 1. The want to win their bets but AS IMPORTANTLY 2. The want to WATCH their bets too and many of these pay services know that. So many of their plays will involve ranked teams and/or team from one of the big 6 conferences. This season I have been contacted by tons of people reporting to me that big pay services have been giving system plays to their pay clients. The reason this sticks out is that these services that have been giving out teams like Texas, Duke, Uconn all year and now they are all of the sudden giving out South Alabama, Citadel and SE Missouri St and that sticks out like a sore thumb. If big pay services continue to give out these smaller school games, we will continue to see the lines move against us for the rest of the season.
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