Quote Originally Posted by PINNACLE:
The shit-storm that will ensue when this inevitably makes a regression toward the mean is not going to be pretty. KP, you seem like a decent dude so I somewhat feel for you.
And in your defense, you have on numerous occasions warned your readers about 2 important things:
1. That this will indeed make a "regression to the mean"
2. Money management. (If you're not flat betting w/ this system, you're openeing yourself up for disaster).
To that, I commend you. 
But the way I see it is the sample size despite the (37 - 10) mark last season and the (11 - 0) record to start this year, is relatively small. And I hope anyone that blindly follows realizes that the oddsmakers do NOT repeatedly (over the long haul) put out "BAD" numbers....... even on these types of games. In essence, that's what the system is predicated upon, right ?........ teams that are undeserving or not warranted in laying such a number (for whatever the reason). That is a big part as to why they appear > 180 in the Kenpom rankings.
All I'm saying is that lines get "tighter" as the season grows older, and the guys that set the lines DO consider intangibles such as "not playing for anything" or any other type of motivational factor. All of these "crazy" numbers will be validated over the course of time and we'll find that even these seemingly "big" unwarranted lines are really in fact, justified.
I will admit, the simplicity of this thing is pretty astonishing, despite it having only short term success thus far. But hey, I hope it hits 50 more in a row for you!
GL man
Thanks for the post, you hit the nail right on the head. I want to continue to stress these points:
a) I don't like systems
b) I don't like these games we are playing and the more I "study" them the more I don't want to bet them
c) I am a "stats" guy and I know for a fact that there will be a big "correction" or "regression to the mean" all fancy words for saying we know this system will come back to earth at some point, so much so that every day I struggle with wanting to bet LESS on these games expecting that they will finally start losing
d) Its all about money management, I wouldn't tease, parley, buy up, buy down, or anything else on this system. I would choose a unit and bet it consistently on each and every game of the system until the system is over or until we have given up on it.
e) The biggest point for even starting these threads is to help everyone identify games that we SHOULD be looking at and SIDES we should be betting - this should help our gambling across the board, not just on the system plays. I guarantee that your friends and co-workers that gamble aren't looking at wanting to get points with the Georgia Southern's and South Alabama's of the world.
f) I only admit to creating the system, if you did the hard work to research games, look at forums, etc. and found these threads then you did the hard work. If you identified that this is a system you would like to follow, again, you made the decision so the credit and success goes to you. On the flip side, if (and when) it has losing days we should accept the responsibility ourselves. As a top-level personal trainer (other's quote not mine), I tell all my clients that if they reach their goal's they should take the credit and consequently if they don't they should take the blame as well. I'm just someone who tries to point them in the right direction - they do the actual work. I think of this the exact same way
I just feel bad for all the people out there paying big money to touts and having these same touts just copy and paste our plays, that is just weak.
I'll be around in a while to discuss anything else you guys want to and if I haven't gotten back to you via PM, I will do so as soon as I can
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