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Final 2019-2020 YTD / Thoughts

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Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 19145
Posted: #1

Fellas its been great. I had the best College Basketball season ever in my 3 years with this sport. This season was just amazing from a learning standpoint and I thank all my covers brothers who stopped in to give me well wishes and hope all my brothers a safe and prosperous offseason.

  I started out mediocre in the early going after the Super Bowl ended and by Sunday night Feb  I was -64 units. Then the light bulb went off..why not try and isolate the revenge games and other games using  the same *Math Model methods that I use for football ie separate stats with a home/away dichotomy / PF / PA in a 3 and 4 game  road series format for the away team and a 3 & 4 game home series format for the home team or for the tournament games using just away game format/stats for both teams which is even more powerful because there is no HC advantage. By computing PF , PA > PD's (Point Differentials) within a H/A series ie positive PD rd teams vs positive PD home teams / negative PD rd teams vs neg PD home teams / negative PD rd teams vs positive PD home teams and last but not least /positive PD road teams vs negative PD home teams during the regular season then switch-n it up for the tournament games using just away stats for both teams as mentioned above you have a powerful system to pick winners.  Power ratings AOPR ( Average Opponents Power Ratings) SOS ( Strength of Schedule or Caliber of Competition) within that 3/4 game H/A series format or A/A ( away vs away) for tourney games and not lets forget the "EYE TEST"..sounds complicated I know.. but those are the tools and after starting to use those tools the same tools I use in capping the pigskin instead of the conventional CBB capping methods, I went from -64 units to +81 in a week @ a 66% clip. That week I not only won the 64 back, but picked up 17 units on top of it, that's an 81 unit swing. Its all about offense and defense, is Team A scoring more pts than they are giving up, or are they giving up more than they are scoring vs what caliber of competition and can they play on the road in hostile venues. Just look @ Duke..the poster team of what Im talking about.. perfect example. They gave up 88 ppg on def on the road vs 65 ppg on def @ home. They scored 66-70 on the road vs 88-90 @ home. They were going down thur. night vs NC State an 8pt underdog with revenge from an earlier blowout loss @ Duke and they were an 8pt dog ? give me a break..perception vs reality. Those are the types of games my system isolates...same goes for Cuse +5.5 vs Louisville and UCLA -7 vs California after they upset Stanford I had both  Cuse and UCLA running their opponents out of the gym. 

  During my run I had a bad Sunday March 8th almost losing it all ( il be fixing that during the off season..most of its over confidence and greed, but from the Mon March 9  to "Black Thursday" I went 19-8 +58 units and I do believe that the picks I had posted for Thursday and had already installed on my 2 accounts.. would have made me a small fortune and helped out a couple of Covers brothers along the way ..but I was never going to see that play out..because of "Black Thursday"..and that hurt... and it actually suc's because in 2009 60 million US Citizens contracted H1N1 and nothing was suspended or cancelled ..its a crock of sh*t and Im pissed off right now and will come back with a vengeance....peacepeace_5

 

Final CBB YTD 130-75  63% (+38.50 units)..could have been triple that just thursday alone if the rug wasn't pulled out from under our feet.

God Bless peace_5

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Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 19145
Posted: #2

* by Sunday night Feb 23rd

 
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Posted: #3

Good job buddy. Good luck to you 

 
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Joined: Sep, 2013
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Posted: #4

Good job, and good info, thanks for posting.  Good luck in the future

 
Captain
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Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 6709
Posted: #5

 I'm so bored now I've taken up knitting. BOL in the future my friend.

 
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Joined: Mar, 2011
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

I'm so bored now I've taken up knitting. BOL in the future my friend.
an_roll_laughStay Safe..peace_5

 
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Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 852
Posted: #7

I remember that Sunday, March 8, which was my last day of wagering this year.  I went into a hole with early games but was able to dig out and made a profit with afternoon games and an NBA game.  I still have the tickets because I had to leave before the games were over.  I don't know when I will go back there to get money for the winners.  I hope MLB starts before I go back there so I can do something while I am there.  In January my NCAAB and NBA picks were helping me offset losses in NFL playoffs mostly because I hated the Chiefs.  Once February came along, I was doing well without the burden of NFL playoff games.

 
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Joined: Mar, 2020
Posts: 11
Posted: #8

Stay safe, we'll be back next year!

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