DO NOT BUY POINTS IN BASKETBALL - Huge Statistical Data Write-up Included

I am willing to put the D-loc "just low scoring games with underdogs catching a few" strategy to the test.

Would ANYBODY be willing to try and pick ONLY THE GAMES WHERE IT MATTERS OR "just low scoring games with underdogs catching a few"?

I'll take care of all the record keeping and nobody even needs to actually put money on the games...just give me a bunch of picks where you think the 3 points will matter.

Give me a list of teams and I'll add 3 points to the original spread and keep all the data on it.

I'm just curious on the Percentage of games where the 3 points will ACTUALLY make a difference in the outcome of a bet.

D-loc,....jesron1269,....would either of you two want to give it a try?

Who wants to test out the point-buying theory?  I'll keep track.

Thanks for the good read man!

DID ANYBODY BUY POINTS ON THE COLORADO STATE @ NEW MEXICO GAME?!?!? THAT GAME PUSHED

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

BIG DAY FOR POINT-BUYERS!!!!!

50 games
100 teams
1 original push on original spread
14 games finished between 0.5 and 3 points away from original spread

I'm going to simplify my stats a bit here as I usually state BOTH teams in the games that finished between 0.5 and 3 points from original spread.

I get my stats from vegasinsider.com because covers.com adds in the Division 2 and sometimes even Division 3 games that DIDN'T even have lines out on them and I really don't need added scores to sift through for my data.

Here are the teams pushed or lost by 0.5 to 3 points on the original spreads and by how much:

Colorado St. @ New Mexico  PUSH
Duquesne                            -0.5
Rhode Island                        -1
Indiana                                -1
Wichita St.                          -1
UW-Milwauke                      -1
La Salle                              -1.5
Georgia                              -1.5
Ball St.                              -2
Southern Illinois                 -2
South Florida                     -2.5
Xavier                               -2.5
Bradley                            -2.5
Miami OH                        -3
Texas A&M                      -3

Stats for Wednesday, January 23, 2013:

Buying 0.5 Point (-120)
1 game from a loss to a push (1%)
1 push to a win (you would only bet on 1 of the 2 teams in a game that pushed) (1%)
2% of teams affected by buying 0.5 points

Buying 1 Point (-130)
4 Pushes (4%)
2 Wins (2%)
6% total teams affected by 1 point

Buying 1.5 Points (-140)
2 Pushes (2%)
6 Wins (6%)
8% total teams affected by 1.5 points

Buying 2 Points (-155)
2 Push (2%)
8 Wins (8%)
10% total teams affected by 2 points

Buying 2.5 Points (-175)
3 Pushes (3%)
10 Wins (10%)
13% total teams affected by 2.5 points

Buying 3 Points (-195)
2 Pushes (2%)
13 Wins (13%)
15% total teams affected by 3 points

ON A GOOD DAY (15% OF GAMES AFFECTED BY BUYING 3 POINTS), A PERSON WOULD HAVE PAID -195 TAX.

DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT -195 MEANS?!?!

A -195 tax minus the "normal" tax of -110 is 85,....85 divided by the "normal" amount you would have put down ($110) is:

77% MORE MONEY THAN A NORMAL -110 BET!!!!

for only 10-15% basketball bets affected by 3 points!

ARE YOU UNDERSTANDING THE MATH YET?!?!?

OK,...so some of you have "good" tax-collecting books?  They charge a nice even 10% on each 0.5 points?!?

3 points at -170:

$170 - "normal" $110 equals $60 more divided by "normal" amount of $110 equals 55% MORE TAX for only 15% bets affected by 3 points.

OK, I thought 4.5% tax on my house was bad, but 77%?!?!?

These sports books, and Vegas alike, ALREADY charge 10%....DON'T GIVE THEM MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Didn't buy any points on my Summit League play today.  I will start charting it and if I have time I will go back over the year and keep track.  BOL!

Here's an excellent article on buying points, teasers, parlays, etc. for the NBA:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/

I'm sure much of the analysis carries over for college hoops as well.  Bottom line is that the making straight bets is the best way to lose the least (on average, of course, the house wins). 

Teasers and money line parlays get you more action for the same dollars wagered (you have a stake in more games), but they don't increase your chances of winning.