Work has been keeping me very busy last few weeks…first post since 1/4
Play: Denver / New Mexico St Over 114.5
Very difficult to back Overs with a Denver team involved as they come into tonight as the 2nd slowest team with respect to pace in the country (only 59.3 poss per game). However, picking the right spots has been successful with this team for me for several seasons now, and tonight I believe is another good opportunity.
Keeping things brief, the angle tonight is all about match-ups – and more specifically what each team wants to do on offense plays against the other team’s weakness on defense. First is Denver. The Pioneers enter tonight with the 9th best effective FG% in the country – aided by taking more 3PA/FGA than every team in the country except for Texas Southern. But not only do they attempt 3’s, they make them at a clip of 37.2% (#46) and get nearly 40% of their offensive output from from behind the arc. This shouldn’t be any different tonight as the Aggies are below average in 3P% defense allowing 33.7% from deep.
Secondly, and maybe more significantly, are the match ups for the New Mexico St offense. The Aggies love to attack the rim and get to the FT line often (47.2% FTA/FGA – 6th best in the country). This should lead to plenty of opportunities at the charity stripe vs a Denver defense that struggles to defend without fouling. In the 5 previous years that Joe Scott has been at Denver, every year his teams have ranked in the bottom 100 with respect to FTA/FGA. This year is no different as they come in at #261.
In addition to this angle, New Mexico St will also hold a significant height advantage that should lead to easy scoring opportunities around the basket. The Aggies enter tonight as the #1 team with respect to height and get to face a Denver frontline that does not have a player taller than 6’ 7”. As a result of this height advantage, NMSt has made 50.7% of its 2PA this season (#61).
At times, the slow pace of this game will make it difficult to watch especially backing an over, but the ingredients are there to get involved in a game where less than 3 points per possession can still give us a winner.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 11-8-1 (57.9%)
2011-'12: 34-23
2010-'11: 2-3-1
2009-'10: 14-7
Work has been keeping me very busy last few weeks…first post since 1/4
Play: Denver / New Mexico St Over 114.5
Very difficult to back Overs with a Denver team involved as they come into tonight as the 2nd slowest team with respect to pace in the country (only 59.3 poss per game). However, picking the right spots has been successful with this team for me for several seasons now, and tonight I believe is another good opportunity.
Keeping things brief, the angle tonight is all about match-ups – and more specifically what each team wants to do on offense plays against the other team’s weakness on defense. First is Denver. The Pioneers enter tonight with the 9th best effective FG% in the country – aided by taking more 3PA/FGA than every team in the country except for Texas Southern. But not only do they attempt 3’s, they make them at a clip of 37.2% (#46) and get nearly 40% of their offensive output from from behind the arc. This shouldn’t be any different tonight as the Aggies are below average in 3P% defense allowing 33.7% from deep.
Secondly, and maybe more significantly, are the match ups for the New Mexico St offense. The Aggies love to attack the rim and get to the FT line often (47.2% FTA/FGA – 6th best in the country). This should lead to plenty of opportunities at the charity stripe vs a Denver defense that struggles to defend without fouling. In the 5 previous years that Joe Scott has been at Denver, every year his teams have ranked in the bottom 100 with respect to FTA/FGA. This year is no different as they come in at #261.
In addition to this angle, New Mexico St will also hold a significant height advantage that should lead to easy scoring opportunities around the basket. The Aggies enter tonight as the #1 team with respect to height and get to face a Denver frontline that does not have a player taller than 6’ 7”. As a result of this height advantage, NMSt has made 50.7% of its 2PA this season (#61).
At times, the slow pace of this game will make it difficult to watch especially backing an over, but the ingredients are there to get involved in a game where less than 3 points per possession can still give us a winner.
Of all the games/totals on today's slate.....this is the only one that I really noticed. Teaser aside I think there is at least 3 to 5 points value in the line, coupled with the teaser I see 13 pts off what the number should be. Playing 106.5 as my first teaser play.
8 pt game with 3 mins left, no idea who wins this....but the total should hit with a little of 2 mins left.
Best of luck
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I play teasers mainly, 3 teams and 8 pts.
Of all the games/totals on today's slate.....this is the only one that I really noticed. Teaser aside I think there is at least 3 to 5 points value in the line, coupled with the teaser I see 13 pts off what the number should be. Playing 106.5 as my first teaser play.
8 pt game with 3 mins left, no idea who wins this....but the total should hit with a little of 2 mins left.
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