Denver / Louisiana - Lafayette Total

YTD: 17-11 (60.7%)

Last posted play was last night’s winner on the Charlotte / La Salle over 136

Play:  Denver / Louisiana – Lafayette Over 126

At first glance, most would be very hesitant to be on an over that involves a Denver team that is ranked #336 in the country with respect to adjusted tempo. However, there is a very strong statistical correlation in play tonight based on the pace and style that UL-L plays at.

The national average for adjusted tempo is 66.7 possessions per game. Denver has played 8 games vs opponents who play faster than the national average. Seven of those games went over tonight’s total of 126. The only match up that didn’t was its game vs Texas Southern that finished at 108. I chalk this one up to the fact that Texas Southern’s offense is one of the worst in the country (#328 adj off eff).

Taking this thought process one step further, all 5 of its games vs opponents ranked in the top 100 nationally with respect to pace went over tonight’s total and averaged 138.9 points. The significance you ask? UL-L will be the second fastest paced team Denver has faced this year, 41^st nationally, averaging 70.0 possessions per game. Lastly, in the 3 games vs conference opponents ranked in the top 100 Denver has played this season, we saw totals of 141 vs Troy (#48), 143 vs WKU (#68), and 132 in regulation vs North Texas (#47).

UL-L has not played a game yet this year that had less than 63 possessions and is coming off a 72 possession game vs  the second slowest team in the Sun Belt (UL-Monroe). This is significant when you consider the fact that Denver maintains the #2 effective FG% in the country bolstered by an offense that ranks in the top 10 with respect to 3P% (#10), 2P% (#5), and FT% (#3) and should be able to maximize their scoring opportunities with these additional possessions.

Yes, Denver will be deliberate with their offense tonight just as they always have been under the guidance of Joe Scott and his Princeton-style offensive philosophy. But based on a game that KenPom predicts will see 63 possessions, Denver’s efficient offense should have more than enough opportunity to get this game into the 60’s just as has been the case vs the other faster paced teams they’ve faced this year.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

followed you last night with the char/lasalle over

likin this one

always enjoy the insight and write-ups...thanks

bol

I use adjusted tempo statistics from KenPom. Since possessions is not an official NCAA statistic, it must be estimated. The formula he uses is:

Possessions = FGA - OR + TO + (.475*FTA)

Hope this helps clarify

Quote Originally Posted by MadeMan4:

Riccio-

Great write-up, but just noticed one thing. The last 8 times these teams have played they have all been below the posted total of 126.

Now, every season and team is different, but this is an incredible stat. Many of the games well below 126. Your thoughts on this?

I want to pull the trigger, but still digging.

Thanks   

Actually this is a very good observation.

When breaking down this game, I went back to 2008, when Joe Scott arrived at Denver. This is far and away his "fastest" paced team. In his four previous seasons, Denver had a cumulative average of 57.95 possessions per game. Tonight they enter averaging 61.00 possessions per game. 3 possessions doesn't sound like much, but this is a 5% increase to their pace from previous seasons. It is also his most offensively efficient team under his tenure there. Furthermore, this is the fastest paced team the UL-L has fielded in the L5 years as well. In my opinion, this all adds up to why tonight's game is much more different than what we've seen in previous seasons when these two teams have gotten together.

Hope this helps and appreciate the comment

Appreciate it, good luck tonight

Quote Originally Posted by omygodwin:

Good luck Riccio. I've been going back and forth on this one all day. A couple things have scared me away from pulling the trigger. (1) - ULL giving up only 24.6 three's a game and (2) - the total going over only 3/8 times that ULL has played a team ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the adjusted tempo category.

Then again, as you touched on, most of those teams didn't have the high offensive efficiency that Denver does. And as you also mentioned, it helps out a lot that Denver connects on 78% of their free-throws since ULL is 281st in the nation in defensive FTA/FGA.

Even with ULL's above-average perimeter defense, I think that Denver will do their part in getting the total to the number. If ULL can keep the turnovers down and keep it within a maximum of a bucket or 2 the whole game, I think they will too. I just can't bring myself to putting faith in them doing so.

I will probably lay off this one, but will be rooting for you.

Appreciate the post, and the points you make are all valid ones.

The characteristics are definitely there tonight for Denver to get their points. If I had a couple of "worries" with this match-up, it is as you mentioned, UL-L turning the ball over and not capitalizing on their trips to FT line (64.3%)

GL with your card tonight

always with you riccio

goodluck