4 Plays (with writeups) for Saturday 11/15 (2-2 YTD)

Wednesday was the last time I posted picks and since then I haven't been able to cap any games so last night I finally got a chance to look over today's games.  There were 4 games that stuck out particularly...

CANISIUS +13 (4 UNITS)

This is my favorite game of the year so far..... Who was the moron who made this line?  It was clearly made 100% based solely on last year's teams.   This isn't the same Akron team that went 24-10 last year before losing in the 2nd round of the NIT.   This is a completely different team who lost there top 3 scorers from that team, and 4 of there top 6. They have only one player who averaged more then 20 minutes per game at any time in there college career and 9 out of there 17 players have never played a minute of college ball before. They are expected to take a step down in the MAC this year.  Its gonna be a rebuilding year and they shouldn't be favored by double digits against ANYONE this early in the season.  

Canisius on the other hand had a horrible season last year, going 6-25... but did show lots of improvement towards the end of the year and almost upset Rider in the 2nd round of the MAAC tourney last year.     They only lost one of there top 5 scorers and are a team that will improve big time from there 6 wins of last year.   I expect Frank Turner to have a breakout year (12 ppg, 5 reb, 4 ast last year) and they will surprise some teams. 

This bet is mainly a bet fading Akron, moreso then betting on Canisius.   Akron is going to struggle big time in the first few weeks, and the biggest evidence of this is what happened just last week.  Akron struggled against the powerhouse of Walsh University in there only exhibition game.  The NAIA team lost by just 2 points, 83-81, and Akron looked terrible.  Expect the same to happen tonight, with Canisius easily covering tonight.

Canisius 76, Akron 72

What are your thoughts on Provy tonight....I love them...

Lousiana Tech +9.5  (3 UNITS)

Again, this is more of a fade of the home team and overvalued line, then it is a play on the dog. 

UL Lafayette is at home for the season opener, but they are not the same team as they expected to be.    They return 4 starters from last year, but because of injuries, there two most important players, Gradnigo and Daigle, will not be playing tonight's game.   This leaves a team that was expected to be very experienced this year to be in trouble.   So with those two out, they will be down to 13 players on the roster and 4 of them are walk ons.  Another player, Dison, is only expected to play sparingly because of a hurt ankle.  Also, Travis Bureau is questionable.   It could be a very thin bench for Lafayette.

Louisiana Tech is a team on the rise.  With Kyle Gibson returning from last year's team, they have the heart and soul of the team back from a team that went 6-24 last year.  I expect them to double there win total this year and could actually go .500 in the WAC.  They have a new team, and there talent and athleticism has definitely improved with there redshirts from last year and there freshmen class.  I expect Rolle and Ashaolu to have a big impact for LT.

If Louisiana Lafayette was healthy, there would be no chance I would be taking Lousiana Tech, but with Lafayette's top two players out for the game, its a chance to fade the home team.  These two teams played last year and Louisiana Tech won at home, 65-60.  I expect a similar game, but with Lousiana Lafayette pulling out at home in a close one.

Louisiana Lafayette 68, Louisiana Tech 64

UNLV -11.5 (4 Units)

I know alotta people are gonna see this line and automatically take San Diego just because of last year's run but that would be a big mistake.

With the exception of Terry, UNLV returns there core from a team that went 23-7 and made it to the 2nd round of the NCAAs before losing to the national champion.   No one could argue against how much Terry meant for UNLV last year as the PG, but I think this team is gonna improve from last year and will be a top 25 for much of the year.   Wink Adams should have a huge year...

As for San Diego, they are also a team that made it much farther then anyone could imagine.  Making it to the 2nd round of the NCAAs was an impressive run by SD, but I'm buying into them repeating it or even coming close to it.  Yes, they return pretty much the whole team, but last year's run was more of a fluke then anything.  Winning the WCC tourney was a tough feat, but lets not forget that it was at there home court and they needed the win alot more then St. Mary's and Gonzaga.  On top of that, they did upset UConn but lets not forget that AJ Price got hurt and that was a huge reason for the win by San Diego.   Why is this important in 2008?   Because they are gonna be overvalued by the public all year cause of last year's run when they really aren't as good as people think.  As for this individual game, San Diego is definitely shorthanded and it will without a doubt show against a very solid UNLV team.   With Pomare suspended, they lose there big man inside... and also lose there PG Trumane Johnson, which could hurt just as much if not more, as Pomare.   They are gonna start a former walk on sophmore guard and two JUCOs. 
On top of this, De'Jon Jackson is also expected to miss tonight's game because of injury.   With the squad that is going to play tonight, they won there exhibiton game against Cal State Los Angeles just 71-67.  

Last year, UNLV beat San Diego at San Diego by the score of 66-55.  And that was with a healthy San Diego squad at the time.  Expect this game to be much more of a blowout with an undersquad San Diego team.

UNLV 74, San Diego 52

Okay... its 5 plays instead of 4.


Buffalo -2.5 (2 Units)

Buffalo is the far superior team, even with there leading returning scorer out becuse of suspension.   Youngstown STate is gonna be in for a big struggle all year, and Buffalo rolls in this one.

Buffalo 72, Youngstown State 65


Providence -11.5 (2 Units)

Don't like betting on my home team, but after seeing how Northeastern has looked so far this year, I have to go with the blowout tonight.   Northeastern may have won easily against IUPUI, but I was far from impressed with how they played.  They then looked terrible against Michigan the night after, and got blown out to a very mediocre team.    Providence on the other hand begins a new era under Keno Davis, and with Sharaud Curry back, I expect this team to come out rejuvenated tonight.  My only worry about this team is the lack of defense, but I think they score enough tonight that they don't even have to worry about it.

Providence 78, Northeastern 61


Looking at a few totals now... maybe adding a couple more plays..

I try not to bet them cause obviously I'm biased.... but I think this is a good situation for them, especially with such a short line like 11.5.   Hopefully they roll... I'll be there... and I can't wait for the Keno era to finally start.

Northeastern at Providence.... OVER 133 (3 Units)

Wow... I'm very surprised at this line.  Providence is a team that's gonna play very high tempo games this year and shoot tons of 3's.  They also aren't playing much defense, whcih was evident in there last exhibition game when they gave up 84 points to Slippery Rock.

I know that Northeastern likes to slow down the games, but with the way PC plans to play... they won't be able to.   I think that there is a perception that because Drake played very slow last year under Keno Davis that PC is gonna do the same.  This is not true at all.  He has implemented a full court press that he plans to use excessively which will speed up the game.   Also, he wants the team to run and gun at every oppurtunity.  This is not Drake, as PC has a much quicker and athletic team.    This game should soar over the total of 133....

Yes I know.. but Canisius is gonna be improved this year and Akron should not be more then a 6 or 7 point favorite against anybody right now..... I'm pretty confident that Akron does not blow them out.

Canisius
UNLV
Providence
Buffalo
Providence Over 


C'mon Lousiana Tech....

Louisiana Tech (with the straightup win)  

nice 4-2 day and 3-1 on my large wagers (3 units and higher)

GOOD JOB BL... Beat your bookie tomorrow 

Thanks for the write ups, followed Canisius and tech.