*** 2nd Largest Play of NCAA Season***
Tom Izzo.....could he be the next coach of the Kentucky Wildcats? Possibly but that's not what we are here to talk about. Something really sticks out to me in this game and that is Defense. Both teams like to play the match up pressure defense in the full court and the half court. Tom Izzo mentioned that he wasn't to push the ball against the Ville and have more half court offense opportunities. This isn't necessarily a great idea since MSU turns the ball over more often than not when in half court pressure situations.
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I look for this game to be close most the first half with Louisville running away in the 2nd. I don't see this being blown through the roof so I'd say the score stays around 72 - 62, L'Ville. It isn't too often you get guys like Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, and Samardo Samuels to mesh together the way they have. We are talking about a Senior, Junior, and a Freshman who are talking and delivering with their teammates. I think the guy who has to step up is Terrence Williams. Williams started all 34 games for the Ville last year and has the most big game experience of the bunch. I was at the Midwest Regional open practices and of all the players he seemed the most relaxed and fluid with his game. He didn't shoot extremely well against Arizona but he didn't need to since the rest of the team stepped up.
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Since both teams average roughly the same in rebounding, it is going to come down to physical pressence and awareness. Louisville has been more aggressive to the ball as of late and their height vs weight advantage in the interior far exceeds MSU's ability. **
3 Point shooting will also be an extreme difference in this game. Louisville has shot 20+ 3 pointers in 4 of their last 5 games while MSU has eclipsed the 20 attempt mark in 1 of their last 12 games. If Louisville gets hot from the arch early, this game could be a walk over by early 2nd half.
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Lousiville has shot 43% or better from the field in 7 of their last 10 games while MSU has averaged close to the same amount with close to 10 fewer shot attempts per game. This is an alarming statistic considering the success Louisville has had against zone defenses and defenses allowing 60 pts or less on average.
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Louisville has given up roughly 100 less turnovers as the season has progressed compared to their opponents while Michigan State has only given up 8 less turnovers on the season compared to their opponents. MSU has turned the ball over 488 times while Louisville has given the rock away 496 times. The Ville may have more turnovers but you also have to consider LVille has forced 100 more than they've committed which poses a large threat against a MSU team that has a knack for giving up the rock. A wider TO margin will lead to more shot attempts for L'Ville leading to more of an opportunity to spread the lead.
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Best of luck to everyone today....and with that said my play/Game of the Decade #2 is on the:
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (-6.5) vs Michigan State Spartans







