Overall: 112–134-8 (48%), -10.78 units, -4.08% Return on Risk
Average line played: +103
Win/Loss margin (in runs) per game is still positive! It’s the 27-40-8 record in games decided by 1 run where I am offsides; this has to start turning the other (highly improbable!).
Even more odd are my AL/NL splits:
AL: 50-63-3 (44%) -13.64 units
NL: 72-71-5 (50%), +2.86 units
Might be time to take a closer look at what's driving this variance..
Traveling again all week, so probably post during the week in here to the extent I have picks.
Overall: 112–134-8 (48%), -10.78 units, -4.08% Return on Risk
Average line played: +103
Win/Loss margin (in runs) per game is still positive! It’s the 27-40-8 record in games decided by 1 run where I am offsides; this has to start turning the other (highly improbable!).
Even more odd are my AL/NL splits:
AL: 50-63-3 (44%) -13.64 units
NL: 72-71-5 (50%), +2.86 units
Might be time to take a closer look at what's driving this variance..
Traveling again all week, so probably post during the week in here to the extent I have picks.
"Win/Loss margin (in runs) per game is still positive! It’s the 27-40-8 record in games decided by 1 run where I am offsides; this has to start turning the other (highly improbable!)."
When you think about it BoB, all games have a 1 run margin, the run that spells victory/defeat.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
"Win/Loss margin (in runs) per game is still positive! It’s the 27-40-8 record in games decided by 1 run where I am offsides; this has to start turning the other (highly improbable!)."
When you think about it BoB, all games have a 1 run margin, the run that spells victory/defeat.
"Win/Loss margin (in runs) per game is still positive! It’s the 27-40-8 record in games decided by 1 run where I am offsides; this has to start turning the other (highly improbable!)."
When you think about it BoB, all games have a 1 run margin, the run that spells victory/defeat.
Of course, but games are decided by the probability of Team A scoring more runs than Team B. The distribution of runs scored - for both teams individually - creates a distribution for the variance in runs scored between the two teams (basically a cumulative distribution function that you can use to derive relative value probabilities vs probabilities implied by the line... to decide between ML, -1.5 RL, Over/under, etc). For example, over the long-run, if you wager on teams that have close to a 50% win probability (with distribution of runs scored constant)you would expect a W/L margin of 0 runs per game if the line was +100.
At the end of the day, having a well below .500 record with a positive W/L margin is highly improbable, which is why I looked into the record on close games. I rarely place wagers I feel have materially < 50% of hitting.
"Win/Loss margin (in runs) per game is still positive! It’s the 27-40-8 record in games decided by 1 run where I am offsides; this has to start turning the other (highly improbable!)."
When you think about it BoB, all games have a 1 run margin, the run that spells victory/defeat.
Of course, but games are decided by the probability of Team A scoring more runs than Team B. The distribution of runs scored - for both teams individually - creates a distribution for the variance in runs scored between the two teams (basically a cumulative distribution function that you can use to derive relative value probabilities vs probabilities implied by the line... to decide between ML, -1.5 RL, Over/under, etc). For example, over the long-run, if you wager on teams that have close to a 50% win probability (with distribution of runs scored constant)you would expect a W/L margin of 0 runs per game if the line was +100.
At the end of the day, having a well below .500 record with a positive W/L margin is highly improbable, which is why I looked into the record on close games. I rarely place wagers I feel have materially < 50% of hitting.
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